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In or Out? The Welfare Costs of EMU Membership

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  • Alexandra Ferreira-Lopes

    (ISCTE - Department of Economics, UNIDE-ERC and DINÂMIA)

Abstract

Denmark, Sweden, and the UK have repeatedly refused to join the European and Monetary Union (EMU). Surprisingly, there is very little work on the welfare consequences of the loss of monetary policy flexibility for these countries. This paper fills this void by providing a framework to evaluate quantitatively the economic costs of joining the EMU. Using a two country dynamic general equilibrium model with sticky prices we investigate the economic implications of the loss of monetary policy flexibility associated with the EMU for each country. The main contribution of our general equilibrium approach is that we can evaluate the effects of monetary policy in terms of welfare. Our findings suggest that these economies may experience sizable welfare losses as a result of joining the EMU. Results show that the cost associated with the loss of the monetary policy flexibility is higher in the presence of persistence government consumption shocks and small trade shares with the EMU.

Suggested Citation

  • Alexandra Ferreira-Lopes, 2008. "In or Out? The Welfare Costs of EMU Membership," Working Papers Series 1 ercwp1408, ISCTE-IUL, Business Research Unit (BRU-IUL).
    • Handle: RePEc:isc:iscwp1:ercwp1408
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    File URL: http://bru-unide.iscte.pt/RePEc/pdfs/ERCwp1408.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Groll, Dominik, 2013. "When do Countries Benefit from Forming a Monetary Union?," VfS Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79787, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    2. Jan Bruha & Jaromir Tonner, 2018. "Independent Monetary Policy Versus a Common Currency: A Macroeconomic Analysis for the Czech Republic Through the Lens of an Applied DSGE Model," Working Papers 2018/19, Czech National Bank.
    3. Stoupos, Nikolaos & Kiohos, Apostolos, 2017. "EU unification and linkages among the European currencies: new evidence from the EU and the EEA," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 28-36.
    4. J. James Reade & Ulrich Volz, 2009. "Too Much to Lose, or More to Gain? Should Sweden Join the Euro?," Economics Series Working Papers 442, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    5. repec:cnb:ocpubv:as15 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Campos, Nauro F. & Eichenauer, Vera Z. & Sturm, Jan-Egbert, 2020. "Close encounters of the European kind: Economic integration, sectoral heterogeneity and structural reforms," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    7. repec:cnb:ocpubv:as17 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Vera Eichenauer & Ronald Indergand & Isabel Z. Martínez & Christoph Sax, 2020. "Constructing Daily Economic Sentiment Indices Based on Google Trends," KOF Working papers 20-484, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
    9. Puzzello, Laura & Gomis-Porqueras, Pedro, 2018. "Winners and losers from the €uro," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 129-152.
    10. repec:cnb:ocpubv:as22 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. repec:cnb:ocpubv:as16 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. repec:cnb:ocpubv:as23 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Makram El-Shagi & Axel Lindner & Gregor von Schweinitz, 2016. "Real Effective Exchange Rate Misalignment in the Euro Area: A Counterfactual Analysis," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(1), pages 37-66, February.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary Policy; Euro; UK; Sweden; Denmark;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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