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Welfare implications of joining a common currency

Author

Listed:
  • Ca' Zorzi, Michele
  • De Santis, Roberto A.
  • Zampolli, Fabrizio

Abstract

This paper examines the welfare implications of a country joining a currency union as opposed to operating in a flexible exchange rate regime. At the country level, the suboptimal response to domestic and foreign shocks and the inability of setting inflation at the desired level may be offset by a positive impact on potential output. We show that for entry to be welfare enhancing, the potential output gain must be the larger, the smaller the country, the larger the difference between the standard deviation of supply shocks across the participating countries, the smaller the correlation of countries’ supply shocks and the larger the variance of real exchange rate shocks. JEL Classification: E52, E58, F33, F40

Suggested Citation

  • Ca' Zorzi, Michele & De Santis, Roberto A. & Zampolli, Fabrizio, 2005. "Welfare implications of joining a common currency," Working Paper Series 445, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:2005445
    Note: 343031
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    File URL: https://www.ecb.europa.eu//pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp445.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Cukierman, Alex & Lippi, Francesco, 2001. "Labour Markets and Monetary Union: A Strategic Analysis," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 111(473), pages 541-565, July.
    2. Gianluca Benigno & Christoph Thoenissen, 2003. "Equilibrium Exchange Rates and Supply-Side Performance," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 113(486), pages 103-124, March.
    3. Russell Cooper & Hubert Kempf, 2000. "Designing Stabilization Policy in a Monetary Union," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0529, Econometric Society.
    4. Benigno, Pierpaolo, 2004. "Optimal monetary policy in a currency area," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(2), pages 293-320, July.
    5. Bagella, Michele & Becchetti, Leonardo & Hasan, Iftekhar, 2004. "The anticipated and concurring effects of the EMU: exchange rate volatility, institutions and growth," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(7-8), pages 1053-1080.
    6. Michele Ca' Zorzi & Roberto A. De Santis, 2004. "The Eastward Enlargement of the European Monetary Union," EUI-RSCAS Working Papers 31, European University Institute (EUI), Robert Schuman Centre of Advanced Studies (RSCAS).
    7. Bergin, Paul R., 2003. "A model of relative national price levels under pricing to market," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 569-586, June.
    8. Pietro Cova, 2008. "Demand Shocks and Equilibrium Relative Prices in the Euro Area," Rivista di Politica Economica, SIPI Spa, vol. 98(1), pages 89-133, January-F.
    9. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2004_015 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. repec:rus:hseeco:123846 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Stanley Fischer, 1989. "Lectures on Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262022834, December.
    12. Ca' Zorzi, Michele & De Santis, Roberto A., 2004. "Currency unions and the real exchange rate," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 85(1), pages 23-27, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Qin, Duo & Tan, Tao, 2009. "How much intraregional exchange rate variability could a currency union remove? The case of ASEAN+3," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(10), pages 1793-1803, October.
    2. Groll, Dominik, 2013. "When do Countries Benefit from Forming a Monetary Union?," VfS Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79787, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    3. Sánchez, Marcelo, 2005. "Is time ripe for a currency union in emerging East Asia? The role of monetary stabilisation," Working Paper Series 567, European Central Bank.
    4. Alexandra Lopes, 2006. "The Costs of EMU for Transition Countries," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 149, Society for Computational Economics.
    5. Agénor, Pierre-Richard & Aizenman, Joshua, 2011. "Capital market imperfections and the theory of optimum currency areas," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(8), pages 1659-1675.
    6. Bas Aarle & Harry Garretsen & Cindy Moons, 2008. "Accession to the euro-area: a stylized analysis using a NK model," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 5-24, July.
    7. Qin, Duo & Tan, Tao, 2009. "How much intraregional exchange rate variability could a currency union remove? The case of ASEAN+3," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(10), pages 1793-1803, October.
    8. Michał Gradzewicz & Krzysztof Makarski, 2013. "The business cycle implications of the euro adoption in Poland," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(17), pages 2443-2455, June.
    9. Ferreira-Lopes, Alexandra, 2010. "In or out? The welfare costs of EMU membership," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 585-594, March.
    10. Marc-Alexandre Sénégas, 2010. "La théorie des zones monétaires optimales au regard de l'euro : Quels enseignements après dix années d'union économique et monétaire en Europe ?," Revue d'économie politique, Dalloz, vol. 120(2), pages 379-419.
    11. Sánchez, Marcelo, 2006. "Implications of monetary union for catching-up member states," Working Paper Series 630, European Central Bank.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Balassa-Samuelson effect; currency union; monetary policy; welfare;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • F40 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - General

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