IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ira/wpaper/200806.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Prediction of individual automobile RBNS claim reserves in the context of Solvency II

Author

Listed:
  • Mercedes Ayuso

    (Faculty of Economics, University of Barcelona)

  • Miguel Santolino

    (Faculty of Economics, University of Barcelona)

Abstract

Automobile bodily injury (BI) claims remain unsettled for a long time after the accident. The estimation of an accurate reserve for Reported But Not Settled (RBNS) claims is therefore vital for insurers. In accordance with the recommendation included in the Solvency II project (CEIOPS, 2007) a statistical model is here implemented for RBNS reserve estimation. Lognormality on empirical compensation cost data is observed for different levels of BI severity. The individual claim provision is estimated by allocating the expected mean compensation for the predicted severity of the victim’s injury, for which the upper bound is also computed. The BI severity is predicted by means of a heteroscedastic multiple choice model, because empirical evidence has found that the variability in the latent severity of injured individuals travelling by car is not constant. It is shown that this methodology can improve the accuracy of RBNS reserve estimation at all stages, as compared to the subjective assessment that has traditionally been made by practitioners.

Suggested Citation

  • Mercedes Ayuso & Miguel Santolino, 2008. "Prediction of individual automobile RBNS claim reserves in the context of Solvency II," IREA Working Papers 200806, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised May 2008.
    • Handle: RePEc:ira:wpaper:200806
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.ub.edu/irea/working_papers/2008/200806.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ayuso, Mercedes & Santolino, Miguel, 2007. "Predicting automobile claims bodily injury severity with sequential ordered logit models," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 71-83, July.
    2. Larsen, Christian Roholte, 2007. "An Individual Claims Reserving Model," ASTIN Bulletin, Cambridge University Press, vol. 37(1), pages 113-132, May.
    3. England, P.D. & Verrall, R.J., 2002. "Stochastic Claims Reserving in General Insurance," British Actuarial Journal, Cambridge University Press, vol. 8(3), pages 443-518, August.
    4. Norberg, Ragnar, 1993. "Prediction of Outstanding Liabilities in Non-Life Insurance1," ASTIN Bulletin, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(1), pages 95-115, May.
    5. Norberg, Ragnar, 1999. "Prediction of Outstanding Liabilities II. Model Variations and Extensions," ASTIN Bulletin, Cambridge University Press, vol. 29(1), pages 5-25, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Javier Campos & Juan Luis Jiménez & Ancor Suárez-Alemán, 2012. "“Not always sunny in paradise: prices and brand diversity in touristic areas supermarkets”," IREA Working Papers 201211, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised May 2012.
    2. Erika Badillo & Rosina Moreno, 2012. "“What Drives the Choice of Partners in R&D Cooperation? Heterogeneity across Sectors”," IREA Working Papers 201213, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Jul 2012.
    3. Lopez, Olivier, 2019. "A censored copula model for micro-level claim reserving," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 1-14.
    4. Artis, Michael & Moreno, Rosina & Miguelez, Ernest, 2009. "Assessing agglomeration economies in a spatial framework with endogenous regressors," CEPR Discussion Papers 7267, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Juan Luis Jiménez & Jordi Perdiguero & Ancor Suárez, 2011. "Debating as a classroom tool for adapting learning outcomes to the European higher education area," IREA Working Papers 201109, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Jun 2011.
    6. Ana María Osorio & Catalina Bolancé & Manuela Alcañiz, 2011. "Measuring early childhood health: a composite index comparing Colombian departments," IREA Working Papers 201122, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Oct 2011.
    7. Juan Luis Jiménez & Jordi Perdiguero, 2018. "Mergers and difference-in-difference estimator: Why firms do not increase prices?," European Journal of Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 45(2), pages 285-311, April.
    8. Jordi Perdiguero, 2011. "Vertical relations and local competition: an empirical approach," IREA Working Papers 201124, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Dec 2011.
    9. Lluís Bermúdez & Antoni Ferri & Montse Guillén, 2011. "A correlation sensitivity analysis of non-life underwriting risk in solvency capital requirement estimation," IREA Working Papers 201113, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Sep 2011.
    10. Belles-Sampera, Jaume & Merigó, José M. & Guillén, Montserrat & Santolino, Miguel, 2013. "The connection between distortion risk measures and ordered weighted averaging operators," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 411-420.
    11. Juan Luis Jiménez & Carmen García, 2012. "“Corruption and local politics: does it pay to be a crook?”," IREA Working Papers 201212, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Jun 2012.
    12. Esther Goya & Esther Vayá & Jordi Suriñach, 2012. "“Do intra- and inter-industry spillovers matter? CDM model estimates for Spain”," IREA Working Papers 201214, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Sep 2012.
    13. Jordi Perdiguero & Juan Luis Jiménez, 2012. "“Policy options for the promotion of electric vehicles: a review”," IREA Working Papers 201208, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Mar 2012.
    14. Miguel Santolino & Jean-Philippe Boucher, 2009. "Modelling the disability severity score in motor insurance claims: an application to the Spanish case," IREA Working Papers 200902, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Jan 2009.
    15. Ernest Miguélez & Rorina Moreno, 2012. "“What attracts knowledge workers? The role of space, social connections, institutions, jobs and amenities”," AQR Working Papers 201203, University of Barcelona, Regional Quantitative Analysis Group, revised Feb 2012.
    16. Peter Claeys & Luis Costa, 2012. "“A Note on the Relationship Between the Cyclicality of Markups and Fiscal Policy”," AQR Working Papers 201208, University of Barcelona, Regional Quantitative Analysis Group, revised Sep 2012.
    17. Mar𨁌orena Mar𑁥l Cristo & Marta G -Puig, 2013. "Pass-through in dollarized countries: should Ecuador abandon the US dollar?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(31), pages 4395-4411, November.
    18. David Castells-Quintana & Vicente Royuela, 2014. "Agglomeration, inequality and economic growth," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 52(2), pages 343-366, March.
    19. Germà Bel, 2011. "Infrastructure and nation building: The regulation and financing of network transportation infrastructures in Spain (1720--2010)," Business History, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(5), pages 688-705, August.
    20. Jordi López-Tamayo & Vicente Royuela & Jordi Suriñach, 2012. "“Building a “quality in work” index in Spain”," IREA Working Papers 201206, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Feb 2012.
    21. Xavier Fageda & Marta Gonzalez-Aregall, 2012. "“Regulation of Port Charges in Spain: Global versus Local Competition”," IREA Working Papers 201217, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Oct 2012.
    22. Daniel Albalate, 2012. "“The Institutional, Economic and Social Determinants of Local Government Transparency”," IREA Working Papers 201210, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised May 2012.
    23. Daniel Albalate & Germà Bel & R. Richard Geddes, 2012. "“The determinants of contractual choice for private involvement in infrastructure projects in the United States”," IREA Working Papers 201220, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Dec 2012.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ayuso Gutierrez, M. Mercedes & Santolino Prieto, Miguel Á., 2008. "Prediction of individual automobile reported but not settled claim reserves for bodily injuries in the context of Solvency II = Predicción de las reservas individuales para siniestros del automóvil co," Revista de Métodos Cuantitativos para la Economía y la Empresa = Journal of Quantitative Methods for Economics and Business Administration, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Department of Quantitative Methods for Economics and Business Administration, vol. 6(1), pages 23-41, December.
    2. Francis Duval & Mathieu Pigeon, 2019. "Individual Loss Reserving Using a Gradient Boosting-Based Approach," Risks, MDPI, vol. 7(3), pages 1-18, July.
    3. Mat'uv{s} Maciak & Ostap Okhrin & Michal Pev{s}ta, 2019. "Infinitely Stochastic Micro Forecasting," Papers 1908.10636, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2019.
    4. Mat'uv{s} Maciak & Ostap Okhrin & Michal Pev{s}ta, 2018. "Dynamic and granular loss reserving with copulae," Papers 1801.01792, arXiv.org.
    5. Stephan M. Bischofberger, 2020. "In-Sample Hazard Forecasting Based on Survival Models with Operational Time," Risks, MDPI, vol. 8(1), pages 1-17, January.
    6. Maciak, Matúš & Okhrin, Ostap & Pešta, Michal, 2021. "Infinitely stochastic micro reserving," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 30-58.
    7. Miguel Santolino & Jean-Philippe Boucher, 2009. "Modelling the disability severity score in motor insurance claims: an application to the Spanish case," IREA Working Papers 200902, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Jan 2009.
    8. Avanzi, Benjamin & Taylor, Greg & Wong, Bernard & Yang, Xinda, 2021. "On the modelling of multivariate counts with Cox processes and dependent shot noise intensities," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 9-24.
    9. Benjamin Avanzi & Gregory Clive Taylor & Bernard Wong & Xinda Yang, 2020. "On the modelling of multivariate counts with Cox processes and dependent shot noise intensities," Papers 2004.11169, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2020.
    10. Richard J. Verrall & Mario V. Wüthrich, 2016. "Understanding Reporting Delay in General Insurance," Risks, MDPI, vol. 4(3), pages 1-36, July.
    11. Crevecoeur, Jonas & Robben, Jens & Antonio, Katrien, 2022. "A hierarchical reserving model for reported non-life insurance claims," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 158-184.
    12. Crevecoeur, Jonas & Antonio, Katrien & Desmedt, Stijn & Masquelein, Alexandre, 2023. "Bridging the gap between pricing and reserving with an occurrence and development model for non-life insurance claims," ASTIN Bulletin, Cambridge University Press, vol. 53(2), pages 185-212, May.
    13. Avanzi, Benjamin & Wong, Bernard & Yang, Xinda, 2016. "A micro-level claim count model with overdispersion and reporting delays," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 1-14.
    14. Łukasz Delong & Mario V. Wüthrich, 2020. "Neural Networks for the Joint Development of Individual Payments and Claim Incurred," Risks, MDPI, vol. 8(2), pages 1-34, April.
    15. Pavel Zimmermann, 2011. "Possibilities of Individual Claim Reserve Risk Modeling," Acta Oeconomica Pragensia, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2011(6), pages 46-64.
    16. Huang, Jinlong & Qiu, Chunjuan & Wu, Xianyi & Zhou, Xian, 2015. "An individual loss reserving model with independent reporting and settlement," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 232-245.
    17. Avanzi, Benjamin & Taylor, Greg & Wang, Melantha & Wong, Bernard, 2021. "SynthETIC: An individual insurance claim simulator with feature control," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 296-308.
    18. Emmanuel Jordy Menvouta & Jolien Ponnet & Robin Van Oirbeek & Tim Verdonck, 2022. "mCube: Multinomial Micro-level reserving Model," Papers 2212.00101, arXiv.org.
    19. Crevecoeur, Jonas & Antonio, Katrien & Verbelen, Roel, 2019. "Modeling the number of hidden events subject to observation delay," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 277(3), pages 930-944.
    20. Benjamin Avanzi & Gregory Clive Taylor & Melantha Wang & Bernard Wong, 2020. "SynthETIC: an individual insurance claim simulator with feature control," Papers 2008.05693, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2021.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ira:wpaper:200806. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Alicia García (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/feubaes.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.