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Neural Networks for the Joint Development of Individual Payments and Claim Incurred

Author

Listed:
  • Łukasz Delong

    (Institute of Econometrics, SGH Warsaw School of Economics, Niepodległości 162, 02-554 Warsaw, Poland)

  • Mario V. Wüthrich

    (Department of Mathematics, ETH Zurich, RiskLab, Rämistrasse 101, 8092 Zurich, Switzerland)

Abstract

The goal of this paper is to develop regression models and postulate distributions which can be used in practice to describe the joint development process of individual claim payments and claim incurred. We apply neural networks to estimate our regression models. As regressors we use the whole claim history of incremental payments and claim incurred, as well as any relevant feature information which is available to describe individual claims and their development characteristics. Our models are calibrated and tested on a real data set, and the results are benchmarked with the Chain-Ladder method. Our analysis focuses on the development of the so-called Reported But Not Settled (RBNS) claims. We show benefits of using deep neural network and the whole claim history in our prediction problem.

Suggested Citation

  • Łukasz Delong & Mario V. Wüthrich, 2020. "Neural Networks for the Joint Development of Individual Payments and Claim Incurred," Risks, MDPI, vol. 8(2), pages 1-34, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jrisks:v:8:y:2020:i:2:p:33-:d:342279
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Andrea Gabrielli & Mario V. Wüthrich, 2018. "An Individual Claims History Simulation Machine," Risks, MDPI, vol. 6(2), pages 1-32, March.
    2. Larsen, Christian Roholte, 2007. "An Individual Claims Reserving Model," ASTIN Bulletin, Cambridge University Press, vol. 37(1), pages 113-132, May.
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    6. Taylor, Greg & McGuire, Gráinne & Sullivan, James, 2008. "Individual Claim Loss Reserving Conditioned by Case Estimates," Annals of Actuarial Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 3(1-2), pages 215-256, September.
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    10. Kevin Kuo, 2018. "DeepTriangle: A Deep Learning Approach to Loss Reserving," Papers 1804.09253, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2019.
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    12. Norberg, Ragnar, 1993. "Prediction of Outstanding Liabilities in Non-Life Insurance1," ASTIN Bulletin, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(1), pages 95-115, May.
    13. Lopez, Olivier & Milhaud, Xavier & Thérond, Pierre-E., 2019. "A Tree-Based Algorithm Adapted To Microlevel Reserving And Long Development Claims," ASTIN Bulletin, Cambridge University Press, vol. 49(3), pages 741-762, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Zuleyka Díaz Martínez & José Fernández Menéndez & Luis Javier García Villalba, 2023. "Tariff Analysis in Automobile Insurance: Is It Time to Switch from Generalized Linear Models to Generalized Additive Models?," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(18), pages 1-16, September.
    2. Emmanuel Jordy Menvouta & Jolien Ponnet & Robin Van Oirbeek & Tim Verdonck, 2022. "mCube: Multinomial Micro-level reserving Model," Papers 2212.00101, arXiv.org.
    3. Ihsan Chaoubi & Camille Besse & H'el`ene Cossette & Marie-Pier C^ot'e, 2022. "Micro-level Reserving for General Insurance Claims using a Long Short-Term Memory Network," Papers 2201.13267, arXiv.org.

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