IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ipt/iptwpa/jrc121262.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Behavioural changes in tourism in times of Covid-19: Employment scenarios and policy options

Author

Listed:

Abstract

The present report provides an analysis of the potential effect of the COVID-19 outbreak on EU27 employment, as the result of tourism flow slowdown. Based on the results of recent surveys, the document quantifies the potential changes in tourist behaviour during the Summer and Autumn of 2020, as consequences of travel and mobility limitations, psychological and economic factors. Therefore, three potential scenarios for the coming months in relation to the volume of tourist arrivals are described, dependent on the evolution and spread of the virus. Subsequently, considering the tourism-employment relationship, the report displays an estimation for the number of jobs at risk in the EU27 in 2020, as a result of the slowdown of tourism activities. The report concludes by providing policy-recommendations for the short, medium and long-term.

Suggested Citation

  • MARQUES SANTOS Anabela & MADRID Carmen & HAEGEMAN Karel & RAINOLDI Alessandro, 2020. "Behavioural changes in tourism in times of Covid-19: Employment scenarios and policy options," JRC Research Reports JRC121262, Joint Research Centre.
    • Handle: RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc121262
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC121262
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Liu, Anyu & Pratt, Stephen, 2017. "Tourism's vulnerability and resilience to terrorism," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 404-417.
    2. Santos, Anabela & Cincera, Michele, 2018. "Tourism demand, low cost carriers and European institutions: The case of Brussels," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 163-171.
    3. Robert M. Solow, 1956. "A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 70(1), pages 65-94.
    4. Jacint Balaguer & Manuel Cantavella-Jorda, 2002. "Tourism as a long-run economic growth factor: the Spanish case," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(7), pages 877-884.
    5. R Maria del Rio-Chanona & Penny Mealy & Anton Pichler & François Lafond & J Doyne Farmer, 0. "Supply and demand shocks in the COVID-19 pandemic: an industry and occupation perspective," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 36(Supplemen), pages 94-137.
    6. Christopher F Baum, 2006. "An Introduction to Modern Econometrics using Stata," Stata Press books, StataCorp LP, number imeus, March.
    7. Adriana Di Liberto, 2013. "High skills, high growth: Is tourism an exception?," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(5), pages 749-785, August.
    8. R Maria del Rio-Chanona & Penny Mealy & Anton Pichler & François Lafond & J Doyne Farmer, 2020. "Supply and demand shocks in the COVID-19 pandemic: an industry and occupation perspective," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 36(Supplemen), pages 94-137.
    9. M. Thea Sinclair, 1997. "Tourism and Economic Development: A Survey," Studies in Economics 9703, School of Economics, University of Kent.
    10. Christine Lim, 1997. "An Econometric Classification and Review of International Tourism Demand Models," Tourism Economics, , vol. 3(1), pages 69-81, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ayman Kassem & Ahmad Muhammad Ragab & Abdullah Alomran & Eid Alotaibi & Tarek AbdelAzim Ahmed & Eman Shaker & Abdallah Alajloni, 2021. "Underlying Factors of Tourist Social Responsibility (TSR) within the COVID-19 Context: An Empirical Investigation of the Saudi Tourism Market," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(23), pages 1-24, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Inchausti-Sintes, Federico, 2015. "Tourism: Economic growth, employment and Dutch Disease," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 172-189.
    2. Severin Reissl & Alessandro Caiani & Francesco Lamperti & Mattia Guerini & Fabio Vanni & Giorgio Fagiolo & Tommaso Ferraresi & Leonardo Ghezzi & Mauro Napoletano & Andrea Roventini, 2022. "Assessing the Economic Impact of Lockdowns in Italy: A Computational Input–Output Approach [Nonlinear Production Networks with an Application to the Covid-19 Crisis]," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 31(2), pages 358-409.
    3. Torsten Heinrich, 2021. "Epidemics in modern economies," Chemnitz Economic Papers 045, Department of Economics, Chemnitz University of Technology, revised May 2021.
    4. repec:arp:sjefsm:2021:p:64-80 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Nano Prawoto & Eko Priyo Purnomo & Abitassha Az Zahra, 2020. "The Impacts of Covid-19 Pandemic on Socio-Economic Mobility in Indonesia," International Journal of Economics & Business Administration (IJEBA), International Journal of Economics & Business Administration (IJEBA), vol. 0(3), pages 57-71.
    6. Jianping Zha & Zhiyong Li, 2017. "Drivers of tourism growth," Tourism Economics, , vol. 23(5), pages 941-962, August.
    7. Fabian Stephany & Michael Dunn & Steven Sawyer & Vili Lehdonvirta, 2020. "Distancing Bonus Or Downscaling Loss? The Changing Livelihood of Us Online Workers in Times of COVID‐19," Tijdschrift voor Economische en Sociale Geografie, Royal Dutch Geographical Society KNAG, vol. 111(3), pages 561-573, July.
    8. Marcos Deuñas & Mercedes Campi & Luis Olmos, 2020. "Changes in mobility and socioeconomic conditions in Bogotá city during the COVID-19 outbreak," Working Papers 30, Red Nacional de Investigadores en Economía (RedNIE).
    9. Soukiazis, Elias & Antunes, Micaela, 2011. "Is foreign trade important for regional growth? Empirical evidence from Portugal," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 1363-1373, May.
    10. Bennedsen, Morten & Larsen, Birthe & Schmutte, Ian & Scur, Daniela, 2020. "Preserving job matches during the COVID-19 pandemic: firm-level evidence on the role of government aid," GLO Discussion Paper Series 588, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    11. Bonadio, Barthélémy & Huo, Zhen & Levchenko, Andrei A. & Pandalai-Nayar, Nitya, 2021. "Global supply chains in the pandemic," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    12. Muhammed A. Yildirim & Cem Cakmakli & Selva Demiralp & Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & Sevcan Yesiltas, 2021. "The Economic Case for Global Vaccinations: An Epidemiological Model with International Production Networks," CID Working Papers 390, Center for International Development at Harvard University.
    13. Sheilla Nyasha & Nicholas M. Odhiambo & Simplice A. Asongu, 2021. "The Impact of Tourism Development on Economic Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa," The European Journal of Development Research, Palgrave Macmillan;European Association of Development Research and Training Institutes (EADI), vol. 33(6), pages 1514-1535, December.
    14. Anna Spoz & Ilona Skibinska-Fabrowska & Grzegorz Kotlinski & Helena Zukowska, 2021. "The Impact of the Covid-19 Pandemic on the Financial Performance of Public Companies in Poland," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(4), pages 955-976.
    15. Antoine Mandel & Vipin Veetil, 2020. "The Economic Cost of COVID Lockdowns: An Out-of-Equilibrium Analysis," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 4(3), pages 431-451, October.
    16. Muhammad Qasim & Zahid Pervaiz & Amatul Razzaq Chaudhary, 2020. "Do Poverty and Income Inequality Mediate the Association Between Agricultural Land Inequality and Human Development?," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 151(1), pages 115-134, August.
    17. Anuradha Patnaik, 2022. "Measuring Demand and Supply Shocks From COVID-19: An Industry-Level Analysis for India," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 16(1), pages 76-105, February.
    18. Ulrich Gunter & M. Graziano Ceddia & David Leonard & Bernhard Tröster, 2018. "Contribution of international ecotourism to comprehensive economic development and convergence in the Central American and Caribbean region," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(33), pages 3614-3629, July.
    19. Palomino, Juan C. & Rodríguez, Juan G. & Sebastian, Raquel, 2020. "Wage inequality and poverty effects of lockdown and social distancing in Europe," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    20. Wei-Bin ZHANG, 2016. "Tourism and economic structural change with endogenous wealth and human capital and elastic labor supply," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(4(609), W), pages 103-126, Winter.
    21. Blanka Škrabić Perić & Blanka Šimundić & Vinko Muštra & Marijana Vugdelija, 2021. "The Role of UNESCO Cultural Heritage and Cultural Sector in Tourism Development: The Case of EU Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(10), pages 1-14, May.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Tourism; Scenarios; Employment; Covid-19; Behavioural changes;
    All these keywords.

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc121262. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Publication Officer (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ipjrces.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.