Seasonal impacts of climate change on electricity production

PESETA IV assesses the impacts of climate change on electricity production by hydro, wind, solar, nuclear and other thermal power plants, including biomass, coal, gas and oil. We assess these impacts in the present power system and in 2050 for a dynamic scenario in line with 2°C mitigation efforts. Both scenarios show that, at EU-level, the production of hydropower plants increases with global warming thanks to higher water availability (although this does not imply substantial development of new hydro plants), while nuclear power decreases. However, there are regional differences in the impacts, such as increased hydro production in the North, and a decline in hydro- and nuclear power production in southern Europe due to lower water availability for direct production or for cooling river-based plants. In northern Europe, the increasing availability of cheaper hydro results in substitution effects and lower production costs, while in southern Europe production costs could increase. Based on the modelling methodology used and the latest available climate simulations, the direct impacts of climate change on wind and solar production are not significant at EU-level. However, in the 2050 power system their capacity would increase in southern regions to compensate for the lost hydro and nuclear production. Climate change impacts on energy in the rest of the world show a negligible spill-over effect on Europe. Improved cooling technologies have the potential to reduce strongly the negative effects of water scarcity, particularly for nuclear plants in southern Europe.