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Oil Price Shocks and Economic Growth in the Us

Author

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  • Michael Alexeev

    (Indiana University)

  • Yao-Yu Chih

    (Texas State University)

Abstract

We apply both conventional and spatial techniques to panel data for US states to examine the effects of plausibly exogenous oil price shocks on economic growth. Contrary to the oil curse claims, we find that oil price shocks have numerically moderate but highly statistically significant positive direct effects on growth while the indirect effects are insignificant. We also find that positive impact of oil occurs only in states with a high value of the economic freedom index. In a technical contribution to the spatial econometrics literature we propose a procedure for estimating marginal effects of oil price shocks in a model with interaction terms. In addition, we show that the cumulative direct oil price effects on economic growth are persistent over time.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Alexeev & Yao-Yu Chih, 2017. "Oil Price Shocks and Economic Growth in the Us," CAEPR Working Papers 2017-011, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Department of Economics, Indiana University Bloomington.
    • Handle: RePEc:inu:caeprp:2017011
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    oil curse; regional economic growth; spatial lags;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q32 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Exhaustible Resources and Economic Development
    • R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models

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