IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ind/cdswpp/296.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Population projection and policy implications for education: A discussion with reference to Kerala

Author

Listed:
  • P.K. Michael Tharakan

    (Centre for Development Studies)

  • K. Navaneetham

    (Centre for Development Studies)

Abstract

In the context of high levels of public expenditure, already committed to the educational sector in States like Kerala, it is argued that there should be restrictions on further investment. Such arguments are apparently supported by the fact that the birth rate is declining and therefore it will result in lesser number of school age population. Since this trend directly affect the elementary education sector-the most sensitive- it is important to project the school age populations with realistic assumptions. This study uses the recent information on the trends in fertility and reproductive preferences to make a realistic future assumption on fertility. Since the total fertility rate (TFR) is distorted by the changes in the timing of child bearing, the initial level of TFR was adjusted in the projection assumption. Among the three assumptions used (high, medium and low) the medium variant shows that the fall in school going age population will be around 3.29 lakhs between 1991 and 2001. However, there will be an increase in the school age population of around 2.37 lakhs between 2001 and 2006 and 1.54 lakhs between 2001 and 2011. Therefore, the fruits of fertility decline will be realized fully after the year 2011 only. In that context, built up school space should not be diverted for use outside schooling purposes; but should be used within the same sector for qualitative upgradation. Decelerating birth rate and its expected impact upon primary school enrolment, by itself cannot be considered as cause enough to withdraw public investment. Such over-all impact will hide within it, level-wise changes of demand for education, from lower to higher school classes, particularly within the relatively educationally 'backward' districts and communities. Therefore, the decelerating birth rate should be carefully monitored. Taking into account its trend and location, further public investment should be reoriented and rationalized. To close schools purely on the basis of decelerating demographic trends will be counterproductive to the nationally and internationally accepted objective of education for all.

Suggested Citation

  • P.K. Michael Tharakan & K. Navaneetham, 1999. "Population projection and policy implications for education: A discussion with reference to Kerala," Centre for Development Studies, Trivendrum Working Papers 296, Centre for Development Studies, Trivendrum, India.
    • Handle: RePEc:ind:cdswpp:296
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.cds.edu/wp-content/uploads/2012/10/wp296.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. World Bank, 1991. "World Development Report 1991," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 5974.
    2. Jimenez, Emmanuel & Lockheed, Marlaine E & Paqueo, Vicente, 1991. "The Relative Efficiency of Private and Public Schools in Developing Countries," The World Bank Research Observer, World Bank, vol. 6(2), pages 205-218, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. N. Vijayamohanan Pillai, 2004. "CES function, generalised mean and human poverty index: Exploring some links," Centre for Development Studies, Trivendrum Working Papers 360, Centre for Development Studies, Trivendrum, India.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Tahir Andrabi & Jishnu Das & Asim Ijaz Khwaja & Tristan Zajonc, 2011. "Do Value-Added Estimates Add Value? Accounting for Learning Dynamics," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(3), pages 29-54, July.
    2. Howes, Candace & Singh, Ajit, 1995. "Long-term trends in the World economy: The gender dimension," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 23(11), pages 1895-1911, November.
    3. Chen, Yuanyuan & Feng, Shuaizhang & Han, Yujie, 2020. "The effect of primary school type on the high school opportunities of migrant children in China," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 325-338.
    4. Michael Bruno, 1994. "Stabilization and Reform in Eastern Europe: A Preliminary Evaluation," NBER Chapters, in: The Transition in Eastern Europe, Volume 1, Country Studies, pages 19-50, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Kasper Brandt, 2018. "Private beats public: A flexible value-added model with Tanzanian school switchers," WIDER Working Paper Series 81, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    6. Christopher Freeman, 2004. "Sistemas de innovación continental, nacional y subnacional. Interrelación y crecimiento económico," EKONOMIAZ. Revista vasca de Economía, Gobierno Vasco / Eusko Jaurlaritza / Basque Government, vol. 56(02), pages 46-83.
    7. Sanjaya Lall, 1996. "Understanding Technology Development," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Learning from the Asian Tigers, chapter 2, pages 27-58, Palgrave Macmillan.
    8. Tochukwu Timothy Okoli & Devi Datt Tewari & Eneh George N.O, 2018. "Assessing the Impact of Skilled Labor on Output Growth in South Africa: An ARDL Bound Testing Approach," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 10(2), pages 209-218.
    9. Pal, Sarmistha & Saha, Bibhas, 2014. "In 'Trusts' We Trust: Socially Motivated Private Schools in Nepal," IZA Discussion Papers 8270, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    10. Jones Charles I., 2001. "Was an Industrial Revolution Inevitable? Economic Growth Over the Very Long Run," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 1(2), pages 1-45, August.
    11. Harold Alderman & Peter F. Orazem & Elizabeth M. Paterno, 2001. "School Quality, School Cost, and the Public/Private School Choices of Low-Income Households in Pakistan," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 36(2), pages 304-326.
    12. repec:ilo:ilowps:293117 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Sadik, Ali T. & Bolbol, Ali A., 2003. "Arab External Investments: Relation to National Wealth, Estimation, and Consequences," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 31(11), pages 1771-1792, November.
    14. Webber, C. A. & Meilke, K. D. & Huff, H. B., 1993. "Canada-PECC Agricultural Trade: An Overview," Working Papers 244032, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada.
    15. Harrison, Ann, 1996. "Openness and growth: A time-series, cross-country analysis for developing countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 419-447, March.
    16. M J Mancebón & M A Muñiz, 2008. "Private versus public high schools in Spain: disentangling managerial and programme efficiencies," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 59(7), pages 892-901, July.
    17. Cook, Paul, 2002. "Competition Policy, Market Power and Collusion in Developing Countries," Centre on Regulation and Competition (CRC) Working papers 30681, University of Manchester, Institute for Development Policy and Management (IDPM).
    18. Blackburn, Keith & Forgues-Puccio, Gonzalo F., 2007. "Distribution and development in a model of misgovernance," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 51(6), pages 1534-1563, August.
    19. Mazzucato, Valentina & Ly, Samba, 1994. "An Economic Analysis of Research and Technology Transfer of Millet, Sorghum, and Cowpeas in Niger," Food Security International Development Working Papers 54730, Michigan State University, Department of Agricultural, Food, and Resource Economics.
    20. Behrman, Jere R., 1996. "Measuring the effectiveness of schooling policies in developing countries: Revisiting issues of methodology," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 345-364, October.
    21. Fuess, Scott Jr. & Van den Berg, Hendrik, 1996. "Transactional activities and total factor productivity growth in Taiwan," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(4), pages 635-650.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    population projection; uneconomical schools; school age population; educational planning; education policy; Kerala;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I2 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education
    • I20 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ind:cdswpp:296. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Shamprasad M. Pujar (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cdsacin.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.