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Public Debt and Household Inflation Expectations

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  • Mr. Francesco Grigoli
  • Mr. Damiano Sandri

Abstract

We use randomized controlled trials in the US, UK, and Brazil to examine the causal effect of public debt on household inflation expectations. We find that people underestimate public debt levels and increase inflation expectations when informed about the correct levels. The extent of the revisions is proportional to the size of the information surprise. Confidence in the central bank considerably reduces the sensitivity of inflation expectations to public debt. We also show that people associate high public debt with stagflationary effects and that the sensitivity of inflation expectations to public debt is considerably higher for women and low-income individuals.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Francesco Grigoli & Mr. Damiano Sandri, 2023. "Public Debt and Household Inflation Expectations," IMF Working Papers 2023/066, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2023/066
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Saten Kumar, 2018. "How Do Firms Form Their Expectations? New Survey Evidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(9), pages 2671-2713, September.
    2. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Michael Weber, 2021. "Fiscal Policy and Households’ Inflation Expectations: Evidence from a Randomized Control Trial," NBER Working Papers 28485, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Michael Weber & Francesco D'Acunto & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Olivier Coibion, 2022. "The Subjective Inflation Expectations of Households and Firms: Measurement, Determinants, and Implications," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 36(3), pages 157-184, Summer.
    4. Christopher Roth & Johannes Wohlfart, 2020. "How Do Expectations about the Macroeconomy Affect Personal Expectations and Behavior?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 102(4), pages 731-748, October.
    5. Weber, Michael & Gorodnichenko, Yuriy, 2021. "Fiscal Policy And Households’ Inflation Expectations: Evidence From A Randomized Control Trial," CEPR Discussion Papers 15821, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jan Behringer & Lena Draeger & Sebastian Dullien & Sebastian Gechert, 2024. "News and Views on Public Finances: A Survey Experiment," IMK Working Paper 223-2024, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    2. Damiano Sandri & Francesco Grigoli & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Olivier Coibion, 2023. "Keep calm and bank on: panic-driven bank runs and the role of public communication," BIS Working Papers 1119, Bank for International Settlements.
    3. Checherita-Westphal, Cristina & Pesso, Tom, 2024. "Fiscal policy and inflation: accounting for non-linearities in government debt," Working Paper Series 2996, European Central Bank.
    4. repec:ecb:ecbdps:202426 is not listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Capital controls; capital outflows; financial crises; inflation expectation; household inflation expectation; increase inflation expectation; sensitivity of inflation expectation; public debt level; Inflation; Inflation targeting; Quasi-fiscal operations; Global;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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