IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/imf/imfwpa/2016-122.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

What's Up with U.S. Wage Growth and Job Mobility?

Author

Listed:
  • Mr. Stephan Danninger

Abstract

Since the global financial crisis, US wage growth has been sluggish. Drawing on individual earnings data from the 2000–15 Current Population Survey, I find that the drawn-out cyclical labor market repair—likely owing to low entry wages of new workers—slowed down real wage growth. There are, however, also signs of structural changes in the labor market affecting wages: for full-time, full-employed workers, the Wage-Phillips curve—the empirical relationship between wage growth and the unemployment rate—has become horizontal after 2008. Similarly, job-turnover rates have continued to decline. Job-to-job transitions—associated with higher wage growth—have slowed across all skill and age groups and beyond what local labor market conditions would imply. This raises concerns about the allocative ability of the labor market to adjust to changing economic conditions.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Stephan Danninger, 2016. "What's Up with U.S. Wage Growth and Job Mobility?," IMF Working Papers 2016/122, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2016/122
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=44032
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Henry Hyatt & James Spletzer, 2013. "The recent decline in employment dynamics," IZA Journal of Labor Economics, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 2(1), pages 1-21, December.
    2. Mary C. Daly & Bart Hobijn, 2015. "Why is wage growth so slow?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    3. Mary C. Daly & Bart Hobijn & Timothy Ni, 2013. "The path of wage growth and unemployment," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue july15.
    4. Christopher L. Smith, 2014. "The Effect of Labor Slack on Wages : Evidence from State-Level Relationships," FEDS Notes 2014-06-02-2, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    5. Acemoglu, Daron & Autor, David, 2011. "Skills, Tasks and Technologies: Implications for Employment and Earnings," Handbook of Labor Economics, in: O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 12, pages 1043-1171, Elsevier.
    6. Decker, Ryan A. & Haltiwanger, John & Jarmin, Ron S. & Miranda, Javier, 2016. "Where has all the skewness gone? The decline in high-growth (young) firms in the U.S," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 4-23.
    7. Lawrence F. Katz & Alan B. Krueger, 2016. "The Rise and Nature of Alternative Work Arrangements in the United States, 1995-2015," Working Papers 603, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section..
    8. Jorge Guzman & Scott Stern, 2016. "The State of American Entrepreneurship: New Estimates of the Quality and Quantity of Entrepreneurship for 32 US States, 1988-2014," NBER Working Papers 22095, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Raven Molloy & Christopher L. Smith & Riccardo Trezzi & Abigail Wozniak, 2016. "Understanding Declining Fluidity in the U.S. Labor Market," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 47(1 (Spring), pages 183-259.
    10. Kumar, Anil & M. Orrenius, Pia, 2016. "A closer look at the Phillips curve using state-level data," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 47(PA), pages 84-102.
    11. Laurence Ball, 2014. "Long-term damage from the Great Recession in OECD countries," European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies: Intervention, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 11(2), pages 149-160, September.
    12. Steven J. Davis & John Haltiwanger, 2014. "Labor Market Fluidity and Economic Performance," NBER Working Papers 20479, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Daniel Aaronson & Andrew Jordan, 2014. "Understanding the Relationship between Real Wage Growth and Labor Market Conditions," Chicago Fed Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Oct.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Rudolfs Bems & Francesca Caselli & Francesco Grigoli & Bertrand Gruss, 2022. "Is Inflation Domestic or Global? Evidence from Emerging Markets," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 18(4), pages 1-52, October.
    2. Bobeica, Elena & Koester, Gerrit & Lis, Eliza & Nickel, Christiane & Porqueddu, Mario, 2019. "Understanding low wage growth in the euro area and European countries," Occasional Paper Series 232, European Central Bank.
    3. Mr. Gee Hee Hong & Zsoka Koczan & Weicheng Lian & Mr. Malhar S Nabar, 2018. "More Slack than Meets the Eye? Recent Wage Dynamics in Advanced Economies," IMF Working Papers 2018/050, International Monetary Fund.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mr. Gee Hee Hong & Zsoka Koczan & Weicheng Lian & Mr. Malhar S Nabar, 2018. "More Slack than Meets the Eye? Recent Wage Dynamics in Advanced Economies," IMF Working Papers 2018/050, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Alexander Murray, 2017. "What Explains the Post-2004 U.S.Productivity Slowdown?," CSLS Research Reports 2017-05, Centre for the Study of Living Standards.
    3. Sergio Salgado, 2019. "Technical Change and Entrepreneurship," 2019 Meeting Papers 634, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    4. Fujita, Shigeru, 2018. "Declining labor turnover and turbulence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 1-19.
    5. Ryan A. Decker & John C. Haltiwanger & Ron S. Jarmin & Javier Miranda, 2018. "Changing Business Dynamism and Productivity: Shocks vs. Responsiveness," NBER Working Papers 24236, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Steven Bond‐Smith, 2022. "Discretely innovating: The effect of limited market contestability on innovation and growth," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 69(3), pages 301-327, July.
    7. Alon, Titan & Berger, David & Dent, Robert & Pugsley, Benjamin, 2018. "Older and slower: The startup deficit’s lasting effects on aggregate productivity growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 68-85.
    8. Etienne Lalé, 2019. "Search and Multiple Jobholding," Upjohn Working Papers 19-305, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research.
    9. Yagan, Danny, 2016. "The Enduring Employment Impact of Your Great Recession Location," Institute for Research on Labor and Employment, Working Paper Series qt12d0w9bs, Institute of Industrial Relations, UC Berkeley.
    10. Raven Molloy & Christopher L. Smith & Abigail Wozniak, 2024. "Changing Stability in U.S. Employment Relationships: A Tale of Two Tails," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 59(1), pages 35-69.
    11. John Haltiwanger & James R. Spletzer, 2021. "Rising Between-Firm Inequality and Declining Labor Market Fluidity: Evidence of a Changing Job Ladder," NBER Chapters, in: Measuring Distribution and Mobility of Income and Wealth, pages 45-67, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Luz A. Flórez & Leonardo Fabio Morales & Daniel Medina & José Lobo, 2021. "Labor flows across firm size, age, and economic sector in Colombia vs. the United States," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 57(3), pages 1569-1600, October.
    13. Henry Hyatt & Erika McEntarfer & Ken Ueda & Alexandria Zhang, 2016. "Interstate Migration and Employer-to-Employer Transitions in the U.S.: New Evidence from Administrative Records Data," Working Papers 16-44r, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    14. Ryan A. Decker & John Haltiwanger & Ron S. Jarmin & Javier Miranda, 2016. "Declining Business Dynamism: What We Know and the Way Forward," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(5), pages 203-207, May.
    15. Ursel Baumann & Melina Vasardani, 2016. "The slowdown in US productivity growth - what explains it and will it persist?," Working Papers 215, Bank of Greece.
    16. Medina, Daniel & Morales, Leonardo Fabio, 2019. "Labour market fluidity and employment outcomes in Colombia: evidence from employer-employee linked data," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), April.
    17. Steven J. Davis & John Haltiwanger, 2024. "Dynamism Diminished: The Role of Housing Markets and Credit Conditions," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 16(2), pages 29-61, April.
    18. John V. Winters, 2017. "Do Native STEM Graduates Increase Innovation? Evidence from U.S. Metropolitan Areas," Economics Working Paper Series 1714, Oklahoma State University, Department of Economics and Legal Studies in Business.
    19. Raven Molloy & Christopher L. Smith & Abigail Wozniak, 2017. "Job Changing and the Decline in Long-Distance Migration in the United States," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 54(2), pages 631-653, April.
    20. Medina, Daniel & Morales, Leonardo Fabio, 2019. "Fluidez del mercado laboral y resultados en materia de empleo en Colombia: evidencia derivada de datos enlazados de empleadores y empleados," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), April.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2016/122. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Akshay Modi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/imfffus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.