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Fiscal Consequences of Terrorism

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  • Mr. Serhan Cevik
  • John Ricco

Abstract

This paper provides an empirical analysis of how the frequency and severity of terrorism affect government revenue and expenditure during the period 1970–2013 using a panel dataset on 153 countries. We find that terrorism has only a marginal negative effect on tax revenue performance, after controlling for economic and institutional factors. This effect is also not robust to alternative specifications and empirical strategies. On the other hand, we find strong evidence that terrorism is associated with an increase in military spending as a percent of GDP (and a share of total government expenditure). Our estimations reveal that this impact is greater when terrorist attacks are frequent and result in a large number of fatalities. Empirical findings also support the view that public finances in developing and low-income countries are more vulnerable to terrorism than those in countries that are richer and diversified.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Serhan Cevik & John Ricco, 2015. "Fiscal Consequences of Terrorism," IMF Working Papers 2015/225, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2015/225
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Chuku Chuku & Isip Ima-Abasi & Abang Dominic, 2017. "Working Paper 284 - Growth and Fiscal Consequences of Terrorism in Nigeria," Working Paper Series 2410, African Development Bank.
    2. José Pedro Pontes & Armando J. Garcia Pires, 2020. "(De) industrialization in the Von Thünen’s economy," Working Papers REM 2020/0141, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.

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