IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/imf/imfwpa/2015-174.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Institutions and Growth: a GMM/IV Panel VAR Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Carlos Góes

Abstract

Both sides of the institutions and growth debate have resorted largely to microeconometric techniques in testing hypotheses. In this paper, I build a panel structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model for a short panel of 119 countries over 10 years and find support for the institutions hypothesis. Controlling for individual fixed effects, I find that exogenous shocks to a proxy for institutional quality have a positive and statistically significant effect on GDP per capita. On average, a 1 percent shock in institutional quality leads to a peak 1.7 percent increase in GDP per capita after six years. Results are robust to using a different proxy for institutional quality. There are different dynamics for advanced economies and developing countries. This suggests diminishing returns to institutional quality improvements.

Suggested Citation

  • Carlos Góes, 2015. "Institutions and Growth: a GMM/IV Panel VAR Approach," IMF Working Papers 2015/174, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2015/174
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=43128
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Nathan Nunn & Diego Puga, 2012. "Ruggedness: The Blessing of Bad Geography in Africa," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 94(1), pages 20-36, February.
    2. Canova, Fabio & Ciccarelli, Matteo, 2013. "Panel Vector Autoregressive Models: A Survey," CEPR Discussion Papers 9380, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Holtz-Eakin, Douglas & Newey, Whitney & Rosen, Harvey S, 1988. "Estimating Vector Autoregressions with Panel Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(6), pages 1371-1395, November.
    4. Stephen R. Bond, 2002. "Dynamic panel data models: a guide to micro data methods and practice," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 1(2), pages 141-162, August.
    5. A. Chong & C. Calderón, 2000. "Causality and Feedback Between Institutional Measures and Economic Growth," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(1), pages 69-81, March.
    6. Jeffrey D. Sachs, 2003. "Institutions Don't Rule: Direct Effects of Geography on Per Capita Income," NBER Working Papers 9490, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Daron Acemoglu & Simon Johnson & James A. Robinson, 2001. "The Colonial Origins of Comparative Development: An Empirical Investigation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(5), pages 1369-1401, December.
    8. Stephen Bond, 2002. "Dynamic panel data models: a guide to microdata methods and practice," CeMMAP working papers CWP09/02, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    9. Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Mittal, Amit & Garg, Ajay Kumar, 2021. "Bank stocks inform higher growth—A System GMM analysis of ten emerging markets in Asia," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 210-220.
    2. James E. Payne & James W. Saunoris & Saban Nazlioglu & Cagin Karul, 2023. "The convergence dynamics of economic freedom across U.S. states," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 89(4), pages 1216-1241, April.
    3. Sumon Kumar Bhaumik & Manisha Chakrabarty & Ali M. Kutan & Ekta Selarka, 2021. "How Effective are Stock Market Reforms in Emerging Market Economies? Evidence from a Panel VAR Model of the Indian Stock Market," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 19(4), pages 795-818, December.
    4. Hou, Xiaohui & Yang, Rui, 2024. "Bank digital transformation and liquidity mismatch: Evidence from China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 581-597.
    5. Adams, Samuel & Klobodu, Edem Kwame Mensah & Opoku, Eric Evans Osei, 2016. "Energy consumption, political regime and economic growth in sub-Saharan Africa," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 36-44.
    6. Steve Loris Gui-Diby & Saskia Mösle, 2017. "Governance and development outcomes: re-assessing the two-way causality," MPDD Working Paper Series WP/17/09, United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP).
    7. Alimov, Behzod, 2022. "The dynamic effects of debt and equity inflows: Evidence from emerging and developing countries," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 26(C).
    8. Hao Liu & Weilun Huang, 2022. "Sustainable Financing and Financial Risk Management of Financial Institutions—Case Study on Chinese Banks," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(15), pages 1-18, August.
    9. Guilherme Amorim & Marcelo E. A. Silva, 2023. "Governance and growth: A panel VAR approach," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 43(4), pages 1896-1907.
    10. Dirks, Maximilian & Schmidt, Torsten, 2023. "The relationship between political instability and economic growth in advanced economies: Empirical evidence from a panel VAR and a dynamic panel FE-IV analysis," Ruhr Economic Papers 1000, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    11. Arvin, Mak B. & Pradhan, Rudra P. & Nair, Mahendhiran S., 2021. "Are there links between institutional quality, government expenditure, tax revenue and economic growth? Evidence from low-income and lower middle-income countries," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 468-489.
    12. Mittal, Amit & Garg, Ajay Kumar, 2018. "Bank stocks inform higher growth – A System GMM analysis of ten emerging markets in Asia," MPRA Paper 98253, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Abdikarim Bashir Jama, 2020. "The Effect of Institutional Quality on Export performance of Middle East & North-Africa Region," International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science, International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science (IJRISS), vol. 4(1), pages 14-20, January.
    14. Di Giorno, Saverio & Dileo, Ivano & Busato, Francesco, 2024. "Shades of grand corruption among allocative efficiency and institutional settings. The case of Italy," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    15. Nana, Ibrahim & Tabe-Ojong, Martin Paul, 2023. "Evolution of Global Value Chains Participation and Economic Growth in Africa," Sustainable Global Supply Chains Discussion Papers 5, Research Network Sustainable Global Supply Chains.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Alali, Walid Y., 2010. "Impact of Institutions and Policy on Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence," EconStor Preprints 269878, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    2. Alali, Walid Y., 2010. "Impact of Institutions and Policy on Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence," MPRA Paper 115610, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Melissa Dell & Benjamin F. Jones & Benjamin A. Olken, 2014. "What Do We Learn from the Weather? The New Climate-Economy Literature," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 52(3), pages 740-798, September.
    4. Schneider, Sophie Therese, 2018. "North-South trade agreements and the quality of institutions: Panel data evidence," Hohenheim Discussion Papers in Business, Economics and Social Sciences 27-2018, University of Hohenheim, Faculty of Business, Economics and Social Sciences.
    5. Blaise Gnimassoun & John C. Anyanwu, 2019. "The Diaspora and economic development in Africa," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 155(4), pages 785-817, November.
    6. Ulaşan, Bülent, 2012. "Cross-country growth empirics and model uncertainty: An overview," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 6, pages 1-69.
    7. Canavire-Bacarreza, Gustavo & Martinez-Vazquez, Jorge & Yedgenov, Bauyrzhan, 2020. "Identifying and disentangling the impact of fiscal decentralization on economic growth," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    8. Saboo, Alok R. & Kumar, V. & Ramani, Girish, 2016. "Evaluating the impact of social media activities on human brand sales," International Journal of Research in Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 524-541.
    9. Kraemer-Eis, Helmut & Signore, Simone & Prencipe, Dario, 2016. "The European venture capital landscape: an EIF perspective. Volume I: The impact of EIF on the VC ecosystem," EIF Working Paper Series 2016/34, European Investment Fund (EIF).
    10. Eicher, Theo S. & Schreiber, Till, 2010. "Structural policies and growth: Time series evidence from a natural experiment," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(1), pages 169-179, January.
    11. Jessica M. Mc Lay & Roy Lay-Yee & Barry J. Milne & Peter Davis, 2015. "Regression-Style Models for Parameter Estimation in Dynamic Microsimulation: An Empirical Performance Assessment," International Journal of Microsimulation, International Microsimulation Association, vol. 8(2), pages 83-127.
    12. Brutti, Filippo, 2008. "Legal enforcement, public supply of liquidity and sovereign risk," MPRA Paper 13949, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Elya Nabila Abdul Bahri & Abu Hassan Shaari Md Nor & Tamat Sarmidi & Nor Hakimah Haji Mohd Nor, 2019. "The Role of Financial Development in the Relationship Between Foreign Direct Investment and Economic Growth: A Nonlinear Approach," Review of Pacific Basin Financial Markets and Policies (RPBFMP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 22(02), pages 1-32, June.
    14. Möller Joachim & Tubadji Annie, 2009. "The Creative Class, Bohemians and Local Labor Market Performance: A Micro-data Panel Study for Germany 1975–2004," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 229(2-3), pages 270-291, April.
    15. Coviello, Decio & Islam, Roumeen, 2006. "Does aid help improve economic institutions ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3990, The World Bank.
    16. Baumann Robert & Engelhardt Bryan & Matheson Victor A., 2012. "Employment Effects of the 2002 Winter Olympics in Salt Lake City, Utah," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 232(3), pages 308-317, June.
    17. Rafiou Raphaël Bétila, 2021. "The impact of Ease of Doing Business on economic growth: a dynamic panel analysis for African countries," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 1(10), pages 1-34, October.
    18. Dong, Xiao-Ying & Hao, Yu, 2018. "Would income inequality affect electricity consumption? Evidence from China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 215-227.
    19. Bravo-Ortega, Claudio & García Marín, Álvaro, 2011. "R&D and Productivity: A Two Way Avenue?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 39(7), pages 1090-1107, July.
    20. Medina-Durango, Carlos Alberto & Posso Suárez, Christian Manuel & Tamayo, Jorge A. & Monsalve, Emma, 2012. "Dinámica de la demanda laboral en la industria manufacturera colombiana 1993-2009 : una estimación panel VAR," Chapters, in: Arango-Thomas, Luis Eduardo & Hamann-Salcedo, Franz Alonso (ed.), El mercado de trabajo en Colombia : hechos, tendencias e instituciones, chapter 7, pages 289-330, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    WP; time series; Institutions; Panel VAR; Economic Development; EFW index; index AJR; estimation sample; expropriation index; endogenous variable; Estimation techniques; Vector autoregression; Structural vector autoregression; Personal income;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O43 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Institutions and Growth
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2015/174. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Akshay Modi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/imfffus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.