IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/imf/imfwpa/2014-020.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Sub-National Credit Risk and Sovereign Bailouts: Who Pays the Premium?

Author

Listed:
  • Ms. Eva Jenkner
  • Zhongjin Lu

Abstract

Studies have shown that markets may underprice sub-national governments’ risk on the implicit assumption that these entities would be bailed out by their central government in case of financial difficulties. However, the question of whether sovereigns pay a premium on their own borrowing as a result of (implicitly or explicitly) guaranteeing sub-entities’ debt has been explored only little. We use an event study approach with separate equations for two levels of government to test for a simultaneous increase in sovereign risk premia and decrease in sub-national risk premia—or a de facto transfer of risk from the latter to the former—on the day a sovereign bailout is announced. Using daily financial market data for Spain and its autonomous regions from January 2010 to June 2013, we find support for our risk transfer hypothesis. We estimate that the Spanish sovereign’s spread may have increased by around 70 basis points as a result of the central government’s support for fiscally distressed comunidades autónomas.

Suggested Citation

  • Ms. Eva Jenkner & Zhongjin Lu, 2014. "Sub-National Credit Risk and Sovereign Bailouts: Who Pays the Premium?," IMF Working Papers 2014/020, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2014/020
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=41294
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. von Hagen, Jürgen & Schuknecht, Ludger & Wolswijk, Guido, 2011. "Government bond risk premiums in the EU revisited: The impact of the financial crisis," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 36-43, March.
    2. Michael D. Bordo & Lars Jonung & Agnieszka Markiewicz, 2013. "A Fiscal Union for the Euro: Some Lessons from History ," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo Group, vol. 59(3), pages 449-488, September.
    3. De Grauwe, Paul & Ji, Yuemei, 2012. "Mispricing of Sovereign Risk and Multiple Equilibria in the Eurozone," CEPS Papers 6548, Centre for European Policy Studies.
    4. repec:lic:licosd:30412 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Dion Bongaerts & Frank De Jong & Joost Driessen, 2011. "Derivative Pricing with Liquidity Risk: Theory and Evidence from the Credit Default Swap Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 66(1), pages 203-240, February.
    6. Bayoumi, Tamim & Goldstein, Morris & Woglom, Geoffrey, 1995. "Do Credit Markets Discipline Sovereign Borrowers? Evidence from the U.S. States," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(4), pages 1046-1059, November.
    7. Lars P. Feld & Alexander Kalb & Marc-Daniel Moessinger & Steffen Osterloh, 2013. "Sovereign Bond Market Reactions to Fiscal Rules and No-Bailout Clauses - The Swiss Experience," CESifo Working Paper Series 4195, CESifo Group Munich.
    8. Kirsten H. Heppke‐Falk & Guntram B. Wolff, 2008. "Moral Hazard and Bail‐Out in Fiscal Federations: Evidence for the German Länder," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(3), pages 425-446, August.
    9. Canuto, Otaviano & Liu, Lili, 2010. "Subnational Debt Finance and the Global Financial Crisis," World Bank - Economic Premise, The World Bank, issue 13, pages 1-7, May.
    10. Lars P. Feld & Alexander Kalb & Marc-Daniel Moessinger & Steffen Osterloh, 2013. "Sovereign Bond Market Reactions to Fiscal Rules and No-Bailout Clauses - The Swiss Experience," CESifo Working Paper Series 4195, CESifo.
    11. Ejsing, Jacob & Lemke, Wolfgang, 2009. "The Janus-headed salvation: sovereign and bank credit risk premia during 2008-09," Working Paper Series 1127, European Central Bank.
    12. Stuart Landon & Constance E. Smith, 2000. "Government debt spillovers and creditworthiness in a federation," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 33(3), pages 634-661, August.
    13. Ejsing, Jacob & Lemke, Wolfgang, 2011. "The Janus-headed salvation: Sovereign and bank credit risk premia during 2008-2009," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 110(1), pages 28-31, January.
    14. James M. Poterba & Jürgen von Hagen, 1999. "Fiscal Institutions and Fiscal Performance," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number pote99-1.
    15. Ianchovichina, Elena & Liu, Lili & Nagarajan, Mohan, 2006. "Subnational fiscal sustainability analysis : what can we learn from Tamil Nadu ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3947, The World Bank.
    16. Mr. John Kiff & Ms. Jennifer A. Elliott & Mr. Elias G. Kazarian & Ms. Jodi G Scarlata & Carolyne Spackman, 2009. "Credit Derivatives: Systemic Risks and Policy Options?," IMF Working Papers 2009/254, International Monetary Fund.
    17. Dell'Ariccia, Giovanni & Schnabel, Isabel & Zettelmeyer, Jeromin, 2006. "How Do Official Bailouts Affect the Risk of Investing in Emerging Markets?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(7), pages 1689-1714, October.
    18. Schulz Alexander & Wolff Guntram B., 2009. "The German Sub-national Government Bond Market: Structure, Determinants of Yield Spreads and Berlin’s Forgone Bail-out," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 229(1), pages 61-83, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Vasvári, Tamás, 2019. "Decentralizáció és költségvetési korlát. Miért fontos, hogy a haszonélvezők viseljék a költségeket? [Decentralization and budget constraints. Why should costs be borne by those benefiting from them," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(9), pages 932-959.
    2. Sola, Sergio & Palomba, Geremia, 2016. "Sub-nationals' risk premia in fiscal federations: Fiscal performance and institutional design," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 165-187.
    3. Cristiana Fiorelli & Nicola Pontarollo & Carolina Serpieri, 2022. "Legislative interventions for the Italian local public financial distress," Working Papers in Public Economics 219, Department of Economics and Law, Sapienza University of Roma.
    4. Beck, Roland & Ferrucci, Gianluigi & Hantzsche, Arno & Rau-Göhring, Matthias, 2017. "Determinants of sub-sovereign bond yield spreads – The role of fiscal fundamentals and federal bailout expectations," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 72-98.
    5. Santiago José Pérez-Balsalobre & Carlos Llano-Verduras, 2021. "Modelling sovereign debt ratings for sub-national governments: the case of Spain before and after the crisis," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 48(2), pages 373-395, May.
    6. Mr. Sergio Sola & Mr. Geremia Palomba, 2015. "Sub-National Government’s Risk Premia: Does Fiscal Performance Matter?," IMF Working Papers 2015/117, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Mitu Gulati & Ugo Panizza & W Mark C Weidemaier & Gracie Willingham, 0. "When Governments Promise to Prioritize Public Debt: Do Markets Care?," Journal of Financial Regulation, Oxford University Press, vol. 6(1), pages 41-74.
    8. Mitze, Timo & Matz, Florian, 2015. "Public debt and growth in German federal states: What can Europe learn?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 208-228.
    9. Hattori, Takahiro & Miyake, Hiroki, 2015. "Empirical Analysis of Yield Determinants in Japan’s Municipal Bond Market: Does Credit Risk Premium Exist?," MPRA Paper 67127, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Li, Shanshan & Gong, Di & Lu, Liping, 2024. "Bail-ins and market discipline: Evidence from China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(PB), pages 51-68.
    11. Gürtler, Marc & Neelmeier, Philipp, 2018. "Empirical analysis of the international public covered bond market," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 163-181.
    12. Li, Shanshan & Lu, Liping, 2023. "No-bailout event and local bank-government nexus in China," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    13. Bethlendi, András & Lentner, Csaba, 2019. "A magyar önkormányzati eladósodás és válságkezelés nemzetközi összehasonlításban [The indebtedness and crisis management of Hungarian municipalities in an international context]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(10), pages 1013-1030.
    14. András Bethlendi & Csaba Lentner, 2018. "Subnational Fiscal Consolidation: The Hungarian Path from Crisis to Fiscal Sustainability in Light of International Experiences," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(9), pages 1-16, August.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Beck, Roland & Ferrucci, Gianluigi & Hantzsche, Arno & Rau-Göhring, Matthias, 2017. "Determinants of sub-sovereign bond yield spreads – The role of fiscal fundamentals and federal bailout expectations," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 72-98.
    2. Moessinger, Marc-Daniel & Feld, Lars P. & Kalb, Alexander & Osterloh, Steffen, 2013. "Sovereign Bond Market Reactions to Fiscal Rules and No-Bailout Clauses The Swiss Experience," VfS Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79807, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    3. Feld, Lars P. & Kalb, Alexander & Moessinger, Marc-Daniel & Osterloh, Steffen, 2017. "Sovereign bond market reactions to no-bailout clauses and fiscal rules – The Swiss experience," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 319-343.
    4. Lars P. Feld & Alexander Kalb & Marc-Daniel Moessinger & Steffen Osterloh, 2013. "Sovereign Bond Market Reactions to Fiscal Rules and No-Bailout Clauses - The Swiss Experience," CESifo Working Paper Series 4195, CESifo Group Munich.
    5. Iara, Anna & Wolff, Guntram B., 2014. "Rules and risk in the Euro area," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 222-236.
    6. Van Hecke, Annelore, 2013. "Vertical debt spillovers in EMU countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 468-492.
    7. Sola, Sergio & Palomba, Geremia, 2016. "Sub-nationals' risk premia in fiscal federations: Fiscal performance and institutional design," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 165-187.
    8. Virkola, Tuomo, 2014. "Fiscal Federalism in Four Federal Countries," ETLA Reports 38, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.
    9. Heinemann, Friedrich & Osterloh, Steffen & Kalb, Alexander, 2014. "Sovereign risk premia: The link between fiscal rules and stability culture," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 110-127.
    10. Jacob Veenstra & Bernard Ommeren, 2017. "Bailout Clauses and the Price of Credit: The Dutch Experience for Housing Corporations," De Economist, Springer, vol. 165(3), pages 295-320, September.
    11. Heiko T. Burret & Lars P. Feld, 2014. "A Note on Budget Rules and Fiscal Federalism," ifo DICE Report, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 12(01), pages 03-11, April.
    12. repec:ces:ifodic:v:12:y:2014:i:1:p:19108838 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Fabio Sigrist & Patrick Köchli & Christoph Lengwiler, 2018. "Determinants of municipal loan spreads: empirical evidence from Switzerland," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 32(2), pages 143-166, May.
    14. Mr. Sergio Sola & Mr. Geremia Palomba, 2015. "Sub-National Government’s Risk Premia: Does Fiscal Performance Matter?," IMF Working Papers 2015/117, International Monetary Fund.
    15. Patrick Augustin, 2012. "Sovereign Credit Default Swap Premia," Working Papers 12-10, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
    16. von Borstel, Julia & Eickmeier, Sandra & Krippner, Leo, 2016. "The interest rate pass-through in the euro area during the sovereign debt crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 386-402.
    17. repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2015-032 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Fazlioglu, S., 2013. "Determinants of sovereign debt yield spreads under EMU: Pairwise approach," Research Memorandum 007, Maastricht University, Graduate School of Business and Economics (GSBE).
    19. Jennie Bai & Shang-Jin Wei, 2017. "Property Rights and CDS Spreads: When Is There a Strong Transfer Risk from the Sovereigns to the Corporates?," Quarterly Journal of Finance (QJF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 7(04), pages 1-36, December.
    20. Juan Carlos Hatchondo & Leonardo Martinez & Francisco Roch, 2022. "Fiscal Rules and the Sovereign Default Premium," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 14(4), pages 244-273, October.
    21. Marta Gómez-Puig & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero, 2011. "Causality and contagion in peripheral EMU public debt markets: A dynamic approach," Working Papers 11-06, Asociación Española de Economía y Finanzas Internacionales.
    22. Jennie Bai & Shang-Jin Wei, 2012. "When is there a strong transfer risk from the sovereigns to the corporates? Property rights gaps and CDS spreads," Staff Reports 579, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2014/020. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Akshay Modi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/imfffus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.