IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/jns/jbstat/v229y2009i1p61-83.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The German Sub-national Government Bond Market: Structure, Determinants of Yield Spreads and Berlin’s Forgone Bail-out

Author

Listed:
  • Schulz Alexander

    (Deutsche Bundesbank, Economics Department, Wilhelm-Epstein-Str. 14, 60431 Frankfurt a.M., Germany)

  • Wolff Guntram B.

    (Deutsche Bundesbank, Economics Department, Wilhelm-Epstein-Str. 14, 60431 Frankfurt a.M., Germany)

Abstract

The paper presents a new and comprehensive data set of all bonds issued by the sixteen German federal states (Länder) since 1992. It thus provides a complete picture of a capital market comparable in size to the combined corporate bond and commercial paper market in Germany. The quantitative analysis reveals that Länder follow different issuing strategies: while some concentrate to a greater extent on large issues or issue joint bonds with other Länder (Jumbos), others rely more on comparatively small but frequent issues. Moreover, some Länder issue a significant volume-share of their bonds in foreign currencies. Suitable bonds are used to compute time series of yields for the respective Länder at a daily frequency as well as a liquidity measure. Based on the unique data set, we document that spreads of Länder yields to the Bund are driven to a great extent by general risk aversion. Public debt only has an economically marginal impact. Moreover, the recent refusal of the Federal Constitutional Court to grant additional federal funds to the city-state of Berlin did not change the risk assessment of German Länder by financial markets. Recent market turbulences have manifestly contributed to widening spreads as well as increased responsiveness of Länder spreads to international measures of risk aversion.

Suggested Citation

  • Schulz Alexander & Wolff Guntram B., 2009. "The German Sub-national Government Bond Market: Structure, Determinants of Yield Spreads and Berlin’s Forgone Bail-out," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 229(1), pages 61-83, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:jns:jbstat:v:229:y:2009:i:1:p:61-83
    DOI: 10.1515/jbnst-2009-0105
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1515/jbnst-2009-0105
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1515/jbnst-2009-0105?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dimitri Vayanos & Pierre‐Olivier Weill, 2008. "A Search‐Based Theory of the On‐the‐Run Phenomenon," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(3), pages 1361-1398, June.
    2. Hallerberg, Mark & Wolff, Guntram B., 2006. "Fiscal institutions, fiscal policy and sovereign risk premia," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2006,35, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    3. Bayoumi, Tamim & Goldstein, Morris & Woglom, Geoffrey, 1995. "Do Credit Markets Discipline Sovereign Borrowers? Evidence from the U.S. States," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(4), pages 1046-1059, November.
    4. Schuknecht, Ludger & von Hagen, Jürgen & Bernoth, Kerstin, 2004. "Sovereign risk premia in the European government bond market," Working Paper Series 369, European Central Bank.
    5. Kerstin Bernoth & Guntram B. Wolff, 2008. "Fool The Markets? Creative Accounting, Fiscal Transparency And Sovereign Risk Premia," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 55(4), pages 465-487, September.
    6. Schuknecht, Ludger & von Hagen, Jürgen & Wolswijk, Guido, 2009. "Government risk premiums in the bond market: EMU and Canada," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 371-384, September.
    7. Lorenzo Codogno & Carlo Favero & Alessandro Missale, 2003. "Yield spreads on EMU government bonds [‘Fiscal policy events and interest rate swap spreads: some evidence from the EU’]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 18(37), pages 503-532.
    8. Kerstin Bernoth & Guntram B. Wolff, 2008. "Fool The Markets? Creative Accounting, Fiscal Transparency And Sovereign Risk Premia," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 55(4), pages 465-487, September.
    9. Mark Hallerberg & Guntram Wolff, 2008. "Fiscal institutions, fiscal policy and sovereign risk premia in EMU," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 136(3), pages 379-396, September.
    10. Nickell, Stephen J, 1981. "Biases in Dynamic Models with Fixed Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(6), pages 1417-1426, November.
    11. Warga, Arthur, 1992. "Bond Returns, Liquidity, and Missing Data," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 27(4), pages 605-617, December.
    12. Dell'Ariccia, Giovanni & Schnabel, Isabel & Zettelmeyer, Jeromin, 2006. "How Do Official Bailouts Affect the Risk of Investing in Emerging Markets?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(7), pages 1689-1714, October.
    13. Guntram B. Wolff & Alexander Schulz, 2008. "Sovereign bond market integration: the euro, trading platforms and globalisation," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 332, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    14. Schulz, Alexander & Wolff, Guntram B., 2008. "The German sub-national government bond market: evolution, yields and liquidity," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2008,06, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    15. von Hagen, Jurgen & Schuknecht, Ludger & Bernoth, Kerstin, 2004. "Sovereign Risk Premia in the European Bond Market," CEPR Discussion Papers 4465, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    16. Francis A. Longstaff, 2004. "The Flight-to-Liquidity Premium in U.S. Treasury Bond Prices," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 77(3), pages 511-526, July.
    17. Capeci, John, 1994. "Local fiscal policies, default risk, and municipal borrowing costs," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 73-89, January.
    18. Laurence Copeland & Sally-Anne Jones, 2001. "Default probabilities of European sovereign debt: market-based estimates," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(5), pages 321-324.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ms. Eva Jenkner & Zhongjin Lu, 2014. "Sub-National Credit Risk and Sovereign Bailouts: Who Pays the Premium?," IMF Working Papers 2014/020, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Schulz, Alexander & Wolff, Guntram B., 2009. "Sovereign bond market integration: the euro, trading platforms and financial crises," MPRA Paper 16900, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Feld, Lars P. & Kalb, Alexander & Moessinger, Marc-Daniel & Osterloh, Steffen, 2017. "Sovereign bond market reactions to no-bailout clauses and fiscal rules – The Swiss experience," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 319-343.
    4. Sola, Sergio & Palomba, Geremia, 2016. "Sub-nationals' risk premia in fiscal federations: Fiscal performance and institutional design," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 165-187.
    5. Jacob Veenstra & Bernard Ommeren, 2017. "Bailout Clauses and the Price of Credit: The Dutch Experience for Housing Corporations," De Economist, Springer, vol. 165(3), pages 295-320, September.
    6. repec:gig:joupla:v:4:y:2012:i:2:p:3-38 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Beck, Roland & Ferrucci, Gianluigi & Hantzsche, Arno & Rau-Göhring, Matthias, 2017. "Determinants of sub-sovereign bond yield spreads – The role of fiscal fundamentals and federal bailout expectations," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 72-98.
    8. Lars P. Feld & Alexander Kalb & Marc-Daniel Moessinger & Steffen Osterloh, 2013. "Sovereign Bond Market Reactions to Fiscal Rules and No-Bailout Clauses - The Swiss Experience," CESifo Working Paper Series 4195, CESifo.
    9. Burret Heiko T. & Feld Lars P. & Köhler Ekkehard A., 2013. "Sustainability of Public Debt in Germany – Historical Considerations and Time Series Evidence," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 233(3), pages 291-335, June.
    10. Fabio Sigrist & Patrick Köchli & Christoph Lengwiler, 2018. "Determinants of municipal loan spreads: empirical evidence from Switzerland," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 32(2), pages 143-166, May.
    11. Gerlach, Stefan & Wolff, Guntram B. & Schulz, Alexander, 2010. "Banking and Sovereign Risk in the Euro Area," CEPR Discussion Papers 7833, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    12. Feld Lars P. & Baskaran Thushyanthan, 2010. "Federalism, Budget Deficits and Public Debt: On the Reform of Germany's Fiscal Constitution," Review of Law & Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 6(3), pages 365-393, December.
    13. Iara, Anna & Wolff, Guntram B., 2014. "Rules and risk in the Euro area," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 222-236.
    14. Mr. Sergio Sola & Mr. Geremia Palomba, 2015. "Sub-National Government’s Risk Premia: Does Fiscal Performance Matter?," IMF Working Papers 2015/117, International Monetary Fund.
    15. Lars P. Feld & Alexander Kalb & Marc-Daniel Moessinger & Steffen Osterloh, 2013. "Sovereign Bond Market Reactions to Fiscal Rules and No-Bailout Clauses - The Swiss Experience," CESifo Working Paper Series 4195, CESifo Group Munich.
    16. Karsten Mause & Friedrich Groeteke, 2012. "New constitutional “debt brakes” for Euroland? A question of institutional complementarity," Constitutional Political Economy, Springer, vol. 23(4), pages 279-301, December.
    17. Emanuele Padovani & Luca Rescigno & Jacopo Ceccatelli, 2018. "Municipal Bond Debt and Sustainability in a Non-Mature Financial Market: The Case of Italy," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(9), pages 1-25, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kirsten H. Heppke‐Falk & Guntram B. Wolff, 2008. "Moral Hazard and Bail‐Out in Fiscal Federations: Evidence for the German Länder," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(3), pages 425-446, August.
    2. Iara, Anna & Wolff, Guntram B., 2014. "Rules and risk in the Euro area," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 222-236.
    3. Gerlach, Stefan & Wolff, Guntram B. & Schulz, Alexander, 2010. "Banking and Sovereign Risk in the Euro Area," CEPR Discussion Papers 7833, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Arghyrou, Michael G. & Kontonikas, Alexandros, 2012. "The EMU sovereign-debt crisis: Fundamentals, expectations and contagion," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 658-677.
    5. Van Hecke, Annelore, 2013. "Vertical debt spillovers in EMU countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 468-492.
    6. Kerstin Bernoth & Guntram B. Wolff, 2008. "Fool The Markets? Creative Accounting, Fiscal Transparency And Sovereign Risk Premia," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 55(4), pages 465-487, September.
    7. Salvador Barrios & Per Iversen & Magdalena Lewandowska & Ralph Setzer, 2009. "Determinants of intra-euro area government bond spreads during the financial crisis," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 388, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    8. Hallerberg, Mark & Wolff, Guntram B., 2006. "Fiscal institutions, fiscal policy and sovereign risk premia," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2006,35, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    9. Moessinger, Marc-Daniel & Feld, Lars P. & Kalb, Alexander & Osterloh, Steffen, 2013. "Sovereign Bond Market Reactions to Fiscal Rules and No-Bailout Clauses The Swiss Experience," VfS Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79807, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    10. Heinemann, Friedrich & Osterloh, Steffen & Kalb, Alexander, 2014. "Sovereign risk premia: The link between fiscal rules and stability culture," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 110-127.
    11. Fazlioglu, S., 2013. "Determinants of sovereign debt yield spreads under EMU: Pairwise approach," Research Memorandum 007, Maastricht University, Graduate School of Business and Economics (GSBE).
    12. António Afonso & Michael G. Arghyrou & Alexandros Kontonikas, 2012. "The determinants of sovereign bond yield spreads in the EMU," Working Papers Department of Economics 2012/36, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.
    13. Christiane Nickel & Philipp Rother & Jan-Christoph Ruelke, 2011. "Fiscal variables and bond spreads - evidence from Eastern European countries and Turkey," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(17), pages 1291-1307.
    14. Ondřej Schneider & Petr Hedbávný & Jan Zápal, 2007. "A Fiscal Rule that Has Teeth: A Suggestion for a “Fiscal Sustainability Council” Underpinned by the Financial Markets," Czech Economic Review, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, vol. 1(1), pages 32-53, March.
    15. van Riet, Ad, 2010. "Euro area fiscal policies and the crisis," Occasional Paper Series 109, European Central Bank.
    16. Regling, Klaus & Deroose, Servaas & Felke, Reinhard & Kutos, Paul, 2010. "The Euro After Its First Decade: Weathering the Financial Storm and Enlarging the Euro Area," ADBI Working Papers 205, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    17. Bernoth, Kerstin & von Hagen, Jürgen & Schuknecht, Ludger, 2012. "Sovereign risk premiums in the European government bond market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 975-995.
    18. Klaus Regling & Servaas Deroose & Reinhard Felke & Paul Kutos, 2010. "The Euro After Its First Decade : Weathering the Financial Storm and Enlarging the Euro Area," Governance Working Papers 22817, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    19. Gregori, Wildmer Daniel & Sacchi, Agnese, 2019. "Has the Grexit news affected euro area financial markets?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 71-84.
    20. Lars P. Feld & Alexander Kalb & Marc-Daniel Moessinger & Steffen Osterloh, 2013. "Sovereign Bond Market Reactions to Fiscal Rules and No-Bailout Clauses - The Swiss Experience," CESifo Working Paper Series 4195, CESifo Group Munich.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:jns:jbstat:v:229:y:2009:i:1:p:61-83. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Peter Golla (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.degruyter.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.