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The German Sub-national Government Bond Market: Structure, Determinants of Yield Spreads and Berlin’s Forgone Bail-out

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  • Schulz Alexander

    (Deutsche Bundesbank, Economics Department, Wilhelm-Epstein-Str. 14, 60431 Frankfurt a.M., Germany)

  • Wolff Guntram B.

    (Deutsche Bundesbank, Economics Department, Wilhelm-Epstein-Str. 14, 60431 Frankfurt a.M., Germany)

Abstract

The paper presents a new and comprehensive data set of all bonds issued by the sixteen German federal states (Länder) since 1992. It thus provides a complete picture of a capital market comparable in size to the combined corporate bond and commercial paper market in Germany. The quantitative analysis reveals that Länder follow different issuing strategies: while some concentrate to a greater extent on large issues or issue joint bonds with other Länder (Jumbos), others rely more on comparatively small but frequent issues. Moreover, some Länder issue a significant volume-share of their bonds in foreign currencies. Suitable bonds are used to compute time series of yields for the respective Länder at a daily frequency as well as a liquidity measure. Based on the unique data set, we document that spreads of Länder yields to the Bund are driven to a great extent by general risk aversion. Public debt only has an economically marginal impact. Moreover, the recent refusal of the Federal Constitutional Court to grant additional federal funds to the city-state of Berlin did not change the risk assessment of German Länder by financial markets. Recent market turbulences have manifestly contributed to widening spreads as well as increased responsiveness of Länder spreads to international measures of risk aversion.

Suggested Citation

  • Schulz Alexander & Wolff Guntram B., 2009. "The German Sub-national Government Bond Market: Structure, Determinants of Yield Spreads and Berlin’s Forgone Bail-out," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 229(1), pages 61-83, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:jns:jbstat:v:229:y:2009:i:1:p:61-83
    DOI: 10.1515/jbnst-2009-0105
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    Cited by:

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    2. Ms. Eva Jenkner & Zhongjin Lu, 2014. "Sub-National Credit Risk and Sovereign Bailouts: Who Pays the Premium?," IMF Working Papers 2014/020, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Schulz, Alexander & Wolff, Guntram B., 2009. "Sovereign bond market integration: the euro, trading platforms and financial crises," MPRA Paper 16900, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Gerlach, Stefan & Schulz, Alexander & Wolff, Guntram B., 2010. "Banking and sovereign risk in the euro area," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2010,09, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    5. Fabio Sigrist & Patrick Köchli & Christoph Lengwiler, 2018. "Determinants of municipal loan spreads: empirical evidence from Switzerland," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 32(2), pages 143-166, May.
    6. Beck, Roland & Ferrucci, Gianluigi & Hantzsche, Arno & Rau-Göhring, Matthias, 2017. "Determinants of sub-sovereign bond yield spreads – The role of fiscal fundamentals and federal bailout expectations," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 72-98.
    7. Lars P. Feld & Alexander Kalb & Marc-Daniel Moessinger & Steffen Osterloh, 2013. "Sovereign Bond Market Reactions to Fiscal Rules and No-Bailout Clauses - The Swiss Experience," CESifo Working Paper Series 4195, CESifo Group Munich.
    8. Feld, Lars P. & Kalb, Alexander & Moessinger, Marc-Daniel & Osterloh, Steffen, 2017. "Sovereign bond market reactions to no-bailout clauses and fiscal rules – The Swiss experience," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 319-343.
    9. Sola, Sergio & Palomba, Geremia, 2016. "Sub-nationals' risk premia in fiscal federations: Fiscal performance and institutional design," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 165-187.
    10. Jacob Veenstra & Bernard Ommeren, 2017. "Bailout Clauses and the Price of Credit: The Dutch Experience for Housing Corporations," De Economist, Springer, vol. 165(3), pages 295-320, September.
    11. Lars P. Feld & Alexander Kalb & Marc-Daniel Moessinger & Steffen Osterloh, 2013. "Sovereign Bond Market Reactions to Fiscal Rules and No-Bailout Clauses - The Swiss Experience," CESifo Working Paper Series 4195, CESifo.
    12. Mr. Sergio Sola & Mr. Geremia Palomba, 2015. "Sub-National Government’s Risk Premia: Does Fiscal Performance Matter?," IMF Working Papers 2015/117, International Monetary Fund.
    13. repec:gig:joupla:v:4:y:2012:i:2:p:3-38 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Iara, Anna & Wolff, Guntram B., 2014. "Rules and risk in the Euro area," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 222-236.
    15. Feld Lars P. & Baskaran Thushyanthan, 2010. "Federalism, Budget Deficits and Public Debt: On the Reform of Germany's Fiscal Constitution," Review of Law & Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 6(3), pages 365-393, December.
    16. Karsten Mause & Friedrich Groeteke, 2012. "New constitutional “debt brakes” for Euroland? A question of institutional complementarity," Constitutional Political Economy, Springer, vol. 23(4), pages 279-301, December.
    17. Emanuele Padovani & Luca Rescigno & Jacopo Ceccatelli, 2018. "Municipal Bond Debt and Sustainability in a Non-Mature Financial Market: The Case of Italy," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(9), pages 1-25, September.

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