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Modeling with Limited Data: Estimating Potential Growth in Cambodia

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  • Mr. Phurichai Rungcharoenkitkul

Abstract

This paper proposes a framework to analyze long-term potential growth that combines a simple quantitative model with an investigative approach of ‘growth diagnostics’. The framework is used to forecast potential growth for Cambodia, and to conduct simulations about the main drivers of growth in that country. The main result is that Cambodia compares less favorably against other lower-income Asian economies in terms of its investment rate, which in turn is constrained by the poor quality of its infrastructure. Bridging this gap can lift Cambodia’s potential growth by more than one percentage point.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Phurichai Rungcharoenkitkul, 2012. "Modeling with Limited Data: Estimating Potential Growth in Cambodia," IMF Working Papers 2012/096, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2012/096
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    File URL: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=25852
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Acemoglu, Daron & Zilibotti, Fabrizio, 1997. "Was Prometheus Unbound by Chance? Risk, Diversification, and Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(4), pages 709-751, August.
    2. Ricardo Hausmann & Jason Hwang & Dani Rodrik, 2007. "What you export matters," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 12(1), pages 1-25, March.
    3. International Monetary Fund, 2010. "Estimating Potential Output with a Multivariate Filter," IMF Working Papers 2010/285, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Willman, Alpo, 2002. "Euro area production function and potential output: a supply side system approach," Working Paper Series 153, European Central Bank.
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    Cited by:

    1. Krasnopjorovs, Olegs, 2013. "Latvijas ekonomikas izaugsmi noteicošie faktori [Factors of Economic Growth in Latvia]," MPRA Paper 47550, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Mr. John C Bluedorn & Rupa Duttagupta & Mr. Jaime Guajardo & Miss Nkunde Mwase, 2013. "The Growth Comeback in Developing Economies: A New Hope or Back to the Future?," IMF Working Papers 2013/132, International Monetary Fund.

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