IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/imf/imfwpa/2012-077.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

CDS Spreads in European Periphery: Some Technical Issues to Consider

Author

Listed:
  • Mr. Manmohan Singh
  • Mr. Mohsan Bilal

Abstract

This paper looks at some technical issues when using CDS data, and if these are incorporated, the analysis or regression results are likely to benefit. The paper endorses the use of stochastic recovery in CDS models when estimating probability of default (PD) and suggests that stochastic recovery may be a better harbinger of distress signals than fixed recovery. Similarly, PDs derived from CDS data are risk-neutral and may need to be adjusted when extrapolating to real world balance sheet and empirical data (e.g. estimating banks losses, etc). Another technical issue pertains to regressions trying to explain CDS spreads of sovereigns in peripheral Europe - the model specification should be cognizant of the under-collateralization aspects in the overall OTC derivatives market. One of the biggest drivers of CDS spreads in the region has been the CVA teams of the large banks that hedge their exposure stemming from derivative receivables due to non-posting of collateral by many sovereigns (and related entities).

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Manmohan Singh & Mr. Mohsan Bilal, 2012. "CDS Spreads in European Periphery: Some Technical Issues to Consider," IMF Working Papers 2012/077, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2012/077
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=25777
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jeffery D Amato, 2005. "Risk aversion and risk premia in the CDS market," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, December.
    2. Carolyne Spackman & Mr. Manmohan Singh, 2009. "The Use (and Abuse) of CDS Spreads During Distress," IMF Working Papers 2009/062, International Monetary Fund.
    3. John C. Hull, 2009. "The Credit Crunch of 2007: What Went Wrong? Why? What Lessons Can be Learned?," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Douglas D Evanoff & Philipp Hartmann & George G Kaufman (ed.), The First Credit Market Turmoil Of The 21st Century Implications for Public Policy, chapter 11, pages 161-174, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Tola, Albi & Wälti, Sébastien, 2015. "Deciphering financial contagion in the euro area during the crisis," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 108-123.
    2. Carmelo Salleo & Alberto Grassi & Constantinos Kyriakopoulos, 2020. "A Comprehensive Approach for Calculating Banking Sector Risks," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 8(4), pages 1-21, November.
    3. International Monetary Fund, 2012. "Euro Area Policies: 2012 Article IV Consultation: Selected Issues Paper," IMF Staff Country Reports 2012/182, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Augustin, Patrick & Subrahmanyam, Marti G. & Tang, Dragon Yongjun & Wang, Sarah Qian, 2014. "Credit Default Swaps: A Survey," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 9(1-2), pages 1-196, December.
    5. López-Espinosa, Germán & Moreno, Antonio & Rubia, Antonio & Valderrama, Laura, 2017. "Sovereign tail risk," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 174-188.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mr. Manmohan Singh & Karim Youssef, 2010. "Price of Risk: Recent Evidence From Large Financials," IMF Working Papers 2010/190, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Lotfi, Somayyeh & Milidonis, Andreas & Zenios, Stavros A., 2024. "Mispricing of debt expansion in the eurozone sovereign credit market," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    3. James Aitken & Mr. Manmohan Singh, 2009. "Counterparty Risk, Impacton Collateral Flows and Role for Central Counterparties," IMF Working Papers 2009/173, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Knaup, M. & Wagner, W.B., 2009. "A Market Based Measure of Credit Quality and Banks' Performance During the Subprime Crisis," Other publications TiSEM a6e8a0c8-00de-45b7-bb02-2, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    5. Beirne, John & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2013. "The pricing of sovereign risk and contagion during the European sovereign debt crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 60-82.
    6. Huang, Xin & Zhou, Hao & Zhu, Haibin, 2012. "Assessing the systemic risk of a heterogeneous portfolio of banks during the recent financial crisis," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 193-205.
    7. Hervé Alexandre & François Guillemin & Catherine Refait-Alexandre, 2015. "Downgrades of sovereign credit ratings and impact on banks CDS spread: does disclosure by banks improve stability?," Post-Print hal-01622782, HAL.
    8. Zaman, Gheorghe & Georgescu, George, 2011. "Sovereign risk and debt sustainability: warning levels for Romania," MPRA Paper 32924, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Enrico Laghi & Michele Di Marcantonio & Eugenio D'Amico, 2014. "Estimating credit default swap spreads using accounting data, market quotes and credit ratings: the European Banks Case," FINANCIAL REPORTING, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 2014(2-3-4), pages 59-81.
    10. Bank for International Settlements, 2011. "Portfolio and risk management for central banks and sovereign wealth funds," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 58.
    11. Beck, T.H.L. & Todorov, R.I. & Wagner, W.B., 2012. "Supervising Cross-Border Banks : Theory, Evidence and Policy (Revised version of CentER Discussion Paper 2011-127)," Other publications TiSEM 1aedf83e-1ca5-44b5-bc6d-d, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    12. Sorin Gabriel Anton, 2011. "The Local Determinants Of Emerging Market Sovereign Cds Spreads In The Context Of The Debt Crisis. An Explanatory Study "," Analele Stiintifice ale Universitatii "Alexandru Ioan Cuza" din Iasi - Stiinte Economice (1954-2015), Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, vol. 58, pages 41-52, november.
    13. Balogh, Peter & Kovacs, Sandor & Chaiboonsri, Chukiat & Chaitip, Prasert, 2009. "Forecasting with X-12-ARIMA: International tourist arrivals to India and Thailand," APSTRACT: Applied Studies in Agribusiness and Commerce, AGRIMBA, vol. 3(1-2), pages 1-19.
    14. Elisa Di Febo & Eliana Angelini, 2018. "The Relevance of Market Variables in the CDS Spread Volatility: An Empirical Post-crisis Analysis," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 19(6), pages 1462-1477, December.
    15. Beirne, John & Renzhi, Nuobu & Volz, Ulrich, 2021. "Feeling the heat: Climate risks and the cost of sovereign borrowing," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 920-936.
    16. Aizenman, Joshua & Hutchison, Michael & Jinjarak, Yothin, 2013. "What is the risk of European sovereign debt defaults? Fiscal space, CDS spreads and market pricing of risk," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 37-59.
    17. Ka Kei Chan & Ming‐Tsung Lin & Qinye Lu, 2024. "Corporate credit default swap systematic factors," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 44(7), pages 1224-1256, July.
    18. Demmler, Michael & Fernández, Amilcar Orlian, 2024. "Explosive behavior in historic NASDAQ market prices," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    19. Beck, T.H.L. & Todorov, R.I. & Wagner, W.B., 2011. "Bank Supervision Going Global? A Cost-Benefit Analysis (Replaced by EBC DP 2012-015)," Other publications TiSEM 2c7d7637-bd3a-4a43-beac-3, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    20. Tomas Klinger & Petr Teply, 2016. "The Nexus Between Systemic Risk and Sovereign Crises," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 66(1), pages 50-69, February.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2012/077. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Akshay Modi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/imfffus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.