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Price of Risk: Recent Evidence From Large Financials

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  • Mr. Manmohan Singh
  • Karim Youssef

Abstract

Probability of default (PD) measures have been widely used in estimating potential losses of, and contagion among, large financial institutions. In a period of financial stress however, the existing methods to compute PDs and generate loss estimates that may vary significantly. This paper discusses three issues that should be taken into account in using PD-based methodologies for loss or contagion analyses: (i) the use of - risk-neutral probabilities - vs. -real-world probabilities; - (ii) the divergence between movements in credit and equity markets during periods of financial stress; and (iii) the assumption of stochastic vs. fixed recovery for financial institutions’ assets. All three elements have nontrivial implications for providing an accurate estimate of default probabilities and associated losses as inputs for setting policies related to large banks in distress.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Manmohan Singh & Karim Youssef, 2010. "Price of Risk: Recent Evidence From Large Financials," IMF Working Papers 2010/190, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2010/190
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jeffery D Amato, 2005. "Risk aversion and risk premia in the CDS market," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, December.
    2. Mr. Manmohan Singh, 2003. "Are Credit Default Swaps Spreads High in Emerging Markets: An Alternative Methodology for Proxying Recovery Value," IMF Working Papers 2003/242, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Carolyne Spackman & Mr. Manmohan Singh, 2009. "The Use (and Abuse) of CDS Spreads During Distress," IMF Working Papers 2009/062, International Monetary Fund.
    4. John C. Hull, 2009. "The Credit Crunch of 2007: What Went Wrong? Why? What Lessons Can be Learned?," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Douglas D Evanoff & Philipp Hartmann & George G Kaufman (ed.), The First Credit Market Turmoil Of The 21st Century Implications for Public Policy, chapter 11, pages 161-174, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
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    Cited by:

    1. Apanard P. Prabha & Clas Wihlborg & Thomas D. Willett, 2012. "Market Discipline for Financial Institutions and Markets for Information," Chapters, in: James R. Barth & Chen Lin & Clas Wihlborg (ed.), Research Handbook on International Banking and Governance, chapter 13, Edward Elgar Publishing.

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