IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jijfss/v8y2020i4p69-d442485.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A Comprehensive Approach for Calculating Banking Sector Risks

Author

Listed:
  • Carmelo Salleo

    (European Central Bank, 60314 Frankfurt, Germany
    These authors contributed equally to this work.)

  • Alberto Grassi

    (European Central Bank, 60314 Frankfurt, Germany
    These authors contributed equally to this work.)

  • Constantinos Kyriakopoulos

    (Department of Mathematics, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, 15772 Athens, Greece)

Abstract

We propose a comprehensive approach for the analysis of real economy and government sector risk transmission to the banking system and apply it in ten Euro-Area countries from 2005 to 2017. A flexible methodology is developed to model banks’ assets according to the risk-adjusted balance sheet of the counterparts. The use of distance to distress as a popular risk metric shows that Contingent Claims Analysis underestimates banks risk in stable periods and overstates it during crisis. Furthermore, the approach succeeds in detecting spillovers from households, non-financial corporations and sovereign sectors: for the countries examined the main source of instability comes from the Non-Financial Corporation sector and its increased assets volatility.

Suggested Citation

  • Carmelo Salleo & Alberto Grassi & Constantinos Kyriakopoulos, 2020. "A Comprehensive Approach for Calculating Banking Sector Risks," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 8(4), pages 1-21, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijfss:v:8:y:2020:i:4:p:69-:d:442485
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7072/8/4/69/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7072/8/4/69/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Darrell Duffie, 1999. "Credit Swap Valuation," Financial Analysts Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(1), pages 73-87, January.
    2. Castrén, Olli & Kavonius, Ilja Kristian, 2009. "Balance Sheet Interlinkages and Macro-Financial Risk Analysis in the Euro Area," Working Paper Series 1124, European Central Bank.
    3. Michael Gapen & Dale Gray & Cheng Hoon Lim & Yingbin Xiao, 2008. "Measuring and Analyzing Sovereign Risk with Contingent Claims," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 55(1), pages 109-148, April.
    4. Wei-ling Chen & Leh-chyan So, 2014. "Validation of the Merton Distance to the Default Model under Ambiguity," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 7(1), pages 1-15, March.
    5. Stefan Nagel & Amiyatosh Purnanandam, 2020. "Banks’ Risk Dynamics and Distance to Default," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 33(6), pages 2421-2467.
    6. Mariana Laverde & Esteban Gómez & Miguel Ángel Morales Mosquera, 2011. "Measuring Systemic Risk in the Colombian Financial System: Systemic Contingent Claims Approach," Temas de Estabilidad Financiera 060, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    7. Duan, Jin-Chuan & Sun, Jie & Wang, Tao, 2012. "Multiperiod corporate default prediction—A forward intensity approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 170(1), pages 191-209.
    8. Dale F. Gray & Robert C. Merton & Zvi Bodie, 2007. "New Framework for Measuring and Managing Macrofinancial Risk and Financial Stability," NBER Working Papers 13607, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Mr. Dale F Gray, 2013. "Modeling Banking, Sovereign, and Macro Risk in a CCA Global VAR," IMF Working Papers 2013/218, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Brière, Marie & Ferrarini, Benno & Ramayandi, Arief, 2016. "Contingent Claims Analysis of Sovereign Debt Sustainability in Asian Emerging Markets," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 486, Asian Development Bank.
    11. Mr. Manmohan Singh & Mr. Mohsan Bilal, 2012. "CDS Spreads in European Periphery: Some Technical Issues to Consider," IMF Working Papers 2012/077, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Kremer, Manfred & Lo Duca, Marco & Holló, Dániel, 2012. "CISS - a composite indicator of systemic stress in the financial system," Working Paper Series 1426, European Central Bank.
    13. Robert C. Merton, 2005. "Theory of rational option pricing," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Sudipto Bhattacharya & George M Constantinides (ed.), Theory Of Valuation, chapter 8, pages 229-288, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    14. repec:ecb:ecbwps:20111426 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Lai, Wan-Ni, 2016. "Evaluating the sovereign and household credit risk in Singapore: A contingent claims approach," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 435-447.
    16. António R. Antunes & Nuno Silva, 2010. "An Application of Contingent Claim Analysis to the Portuguese Banking System," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    17. Mr. Christian Keller & Mr. Peter J Kunzel & Mr. Marcos R Souto, 2007. "Measuring Sovereign Risk in Turkey: An Application of the Contingent Claims Approach," IMF Working Papers 2007/233, International Monetary Fund.
    18. repec:dau:papers:123456789/7874 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-654, May-June.
    20. Ms. Yingbin Xiao & Mr. Dale F Gray & Cheng Hoon Lim & Michael T. Gapen, 2004. "The Contingent Claims Approach to Corporate Vulnerability Analysis: Estimating Default Risk and Economy-Wide Risk Transfer," IMF Working Papers 2004/121, International Monetary Fund.
    21. Sreedhar T. Bharath & Tyler Shumway, 2008. "Forecasting Default with the Merton Distance to Default Model," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(3), pages 1339-1369, May.
    22. Jessen, Cathrine & Lando, David, 2015. "Robustness of distance-to-default," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 493-505.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Dmytro Kovalenko & Olga Afanasieva & Nani Zabuta & Tetiana Boiko & Rosen Rosenov Baltov, 2021. "Model of Assessing the Overdue Debts in a Commercial Bank Using Neuro-Fuzzy Technologies," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(5), pages 1-20, May.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Firano, Zakaria & Filali adib, Fatine, 2019. "Intersectorial contagion risk in Morocco," MPRA Paper 95343, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Nuno Silva, 2010. "Inter-Sector Relations in the Portuguese Economy: an Application of Contingent," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    3. Beck, Günter Wilfried & Kotz, Hans-Helmut, 2016. "Euro area shadow banking activities in a low-interest-rate environment: A flow-of-funds perspective," SAFE White Paper Series 37, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    4. Cevik, Emrah I. & Dibooglu, Sel & Kenc, Turalay, 2016. "Financial stress and economic activity in some emerging Asian economies," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 127-139.
    5. Emiliano Delfau, 2018. "Risk Framework Analysis in the Management of Sovereign Debt: The Argentine case," CEMA Working Papers: Serie Documentos de Trabajo. 634, Universidad del CEMA.
    6. Beck, Günter W. & Kotz, Hans-Helmut & Zabelina, Natalia, 2015. "Euro area macro-financial stability: A flow-of-funds perspective," SAFE White Paper Series 29, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    7. Henry, Jérôme & Zimmermann, Maik & Leber, Miha & Kolb, Markus & Grodzicki, Maciej & Amzallag, Adrien & Vouldis, Angelos & Hałaj, Grzegorz & Pancaro, Cosimo & Gross, Marco & Baudino, Patrizia & Sydow, , 2013. "A macro stress testing framework for assessing systemic risks in the banking sector," Occasional Paper Series 152, European Central Bank.
    8. João Amador & Luca David Opromolla, . "As Margens das Exportações: Empresas, Produtos e Destinos," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    9. Emiliano Delfau, 2019. "Medidas de estabilidad financiera y pruebas de estrés aplicando el modelo de análisis de derechos contingentes en Argentina," CEMA Working Papers: Serie Documentos de Trabajo. 698, Universidad del CEMA.
    10. Dale F. Gray & Robert C. Merton & Zvi Bodie, 2007. "New Framework for Measuring and Managing Macrofinancial Risk and Financial Stability," NBER Working Papers 13607, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Miroslav Plasil & Ivana Kubicova, 2012. "Contingent Claims Analysis And The Inter-Sector Transmission Of Credit Risk," Occasional Publications - Chapters in Edited Volumes, in: CNB Financial Stability Report 2011/2012, chapter 0, pages 129-139, Czech National Bank.
    12. Marta Gómez-Puig & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero & Manish K. Singh, 2018. "“Incorporating creditors' seniority into contingent claim models:Application to peripheral euro area countries”," IREA Working Papers 201803, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Feb 2018.
    13. Singh, Manish K. & Gómez-Puig, Marta & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simón, 2015. "Bank risk behavior and connectedness in EMU countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 161-184.
    14. Giesecke, Kay & Longstaff, Francis A. & Schaefer, Stephen & Strebulaev, Ilya, 2011. "Corporate bond default risk: A 150-year perspective," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(2), pages 233-250.
    15. Sigrist, Fabio & Leuenberger, Nicola, 2023. "Machine learning for corporate default risk: Multi-period prediction, frailty correlation, loan portfolios, and tail probabilities," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 305(3), pages 1390-1406.
    16. David Xiao, 2023. "Default Process Modeling and Credit Valuation Adjustment," Papers 2309.03311, arXiv.org.
    17. Jie Cao & Amit Goyal & Xiao Xiao & Xintong Zhan, 2023. "Implied Volatility Changes and Corporate Bond Returns," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 69(3), pages 1375-1397, March.
    18. Nguyen, Ha, 2023. "An empirical application of Particle Markov Chain Monte Carlo to frailty correlated default models," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 103-121.
    19. Saldías, Martín, 2013. "Systemic risk analysis using forward-looking Distance-to-Default series," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 498-517.
    20. Dale F. Gray & Carlos J. García & Leonardo Luna & Jorge E. Restrepo, 2011. "Incorporating Financial Sector Risk Into Monetary Policy Models: Application to Chile," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Rodrigo Alfaro (ed.),Financial Stability, Monetary Policy, and Central Banking, edition 1, volume 15, chapter 6, pages 159-197, Central Bank of Chile.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jijfss:v:8:y:2020:i:4:p:69-:d:442485. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.