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GDP Growth, Potential Output, and Output Gaps in Mexico

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  • Mr. Ebrima A Faal

Abstract

This paper analyzes the sources of Mexico's economic growth since the 1960s and compares various decompositions of historical growth into its trend and cyclical components. The role of the implied output gaps in the inflationary process is then assessed. Looking ahead, the paper presents medium-term paths for GDP based on alternative assumptions for productivity growth rates. The results indicate that the most important factor underlying the slowdown in output growth was a decline in trend total factor productivity growth. Economic policy reforms and the introduction of NAFTA may have raised trend productivity growth in recent years. Further increases in productivity growth would appear necessary, however, to raise medium-term growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Ebrima A Faal, 2005. "GDP Growth, Potential Output, and Output Gaps in Mexico," IMF Working Papers 2005/093, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2005/093
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    Cited by:

    1. Risso, W. Adrián & Punzo, Lionello F. & Carrera, Edgar J. Sánchez, 2013. "Economic growth and income distribution in Mexico: A cointegration exercise," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 708-714.
    2. Robert Blecker, 2007. "External Shocks, Structural Change, and Economic Growth in Mexico, 1979-2006," Working Papers wp157, Political Economy Research Institute, University of Massachusetts at Amherst.
    3. Julia Bersch & Tara M. Sinclair, 2014. "Statistical versus economic output gap measures: evidence from Mongolia," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 34(3), pages 1864-1874.
    4. Julia Bersch & Tara M. Sinclair, 2011. "Mongolia: Measuring the Output Gap," IMF Working Papers 2011/079, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Diagne, Youssoupha Sakrya & Thiam, Dame, 2020. "La résilience de l'économie sénégalaise : Quelles politiques publiques en réponses aux chocs exogènes? [Resillience of the senegalese economy; What policy responses to exogenous shocks?]," MPRA Paper 114018, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Freije, Samuel & Lopez-Acevedo, Gladys & Rodriguez-Oreggia, Eduardo, 2011. "Effects of the 2008-09 economic crisis on labor markets in Mexico," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5840, The World Bank.
    7. Héctor Salgado Banda & Lorenzo Bernal Verdugo, 2011. "Multifactor productivity and its determinants: an empirical analysis for Mexican manufacturing," Journal of Productivity Analysis, Springer, vol. 36(3), pages 293-308, December.
    8. Carlos Guerrero de Lizardi, 2009. "Contribution of the Information and Communication Technology sector to Mexican economic growth from 1999 to 2004," EconoQuantum, Revista de Economia y Finanzas, Universidad de Guadalajara, Centro Universitario de Ciencias Economico Administrativas, Departamento de Metodos Cuantitativos y Maestria en Economia., vol. 6(1), pages 11-30, Julio - D.

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