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Probabilities of Default and the Market Price of Risk in a Distressed Economy

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  • Miguel A. Segoviano
  • Mr. Raphael A Espinoza

Abstract

We propose an original method to estimate the market price of risk under stress, which is needed to correct for risk aversion the CDS-implied probabilities of distress. The method is based, for simplicity, on a one-factor asset pricing model. The market price of risk under stress (the expectation of the market price of risk, conditional on it exceeding a certain threshold) is computed from the price of risk (which is the variance of the market price of risk) and the discount factor (which is the inverse of the expected market price of risk). The threshold is endogenously determined so that the probability of the price of risk exceeding it is also the probability of distress of the asset. The price of risk can be estimated via different methods, for instance derived from the VIX or from the factors in a Fama-MacBeth regression.

Suggested Citation

  • Miguel A. Segoviano & Mr. Raphael A Espinoza, 2011. "Probabilities of Default and the Market Price of Risk in a Distressed Economy," IMF Working Papers 2011/075, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2011/075
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Tobias Adrian & Erkko Etula & Hyun Song Shin, 2009. "Risk appetite and exchange Rates," Staff Reports 361, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    2. Miguel A. Segoviano & Carlos Caceres & Vincenzo Guzzo, 2010. "Sovereign Spreads: Global Risk Aversion, Contagion or Fundamentals?," IMF Working Papers 2010/120, International Monetary Fund.
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    Cited by:

    1. Alla, Zineddine & Espinoza, Raphael & Li, Helen & Segoviano, Miguel, 2018. "Macroprudential stress tests: a reduced-form approach to quantifying systemic risk losses," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 118930, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    2. Mr. Frigyes F Heinz & Ms. Yan M Sun, 2014. "Sovereign CDS Spreads in Europe: The Role of Global Risk Aversion, Economic Fundamentals, Liquidity, and Spillovers," IMF Working Papers 2014/017, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Florence Bouvet & Ryan Brady & Sharmila King, 2013. "Debt Contagion in Europe: A Panel-VAR Analysis," Departmental Working Papers 44, United States Naval Academy Department of Economics.
    4. Carlos Caceres & D. Filiz Unsal, 2013. "Sovereign Spreads and Contagion Risks in Asia," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 27(3), pages 219-243, September.
    5. Gastón Andrés Giordana & Ingmar Schumacher, 2017. "An Empirical Study on the Impact of Basel III Standards on Banks’ Default Risk: The Case of Luxembourg," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-21, April.
    6. Miguel A. Segoviano & Carlos Caceres & Vincenzo Guzzo, 2010. "Sovereign Spreads: Global Risk Aversion, Contagion or Fundamentals?," IMF Working Papers 2010/120, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Ms. Brenda Gonzalez-Hermosillo & Mr. Christian A Johnson, 2014. "Transmission of Financial Stress in Europe: The Pivotal Role of Italy and Spain, but not Greece," IMF Working Papers 2014/076, International Monetary Fund.
    8. International Monetary Fund, 2014. "Switzerland: Technical Note-Systemic Risk and Contagion Analysis," IMF Staff Country Reports 2014/268, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Zineddine Alla & Mr. Raphael A Espinoza & Qiaoluan H. Li & Miguel A. Segoviano, 2018. "Macroprudential Stress Tests: A Reduced-Form Approach to Quantifying Systemic Risk Losses," IMF Working Papers 2018/049, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Florence Bouvet & Ryan Brady & Sharmila King, 2013. "Debt Contagion in Europe: A Panel-Vector Autoregressive (VAR) Analysis," Social Sciences, MDPI, vol. 2(4), pages 1-23, December.

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