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Why is Spot Carbon so Cheap and Future Carbon so Dear? The Term Structure of Carbon Prices

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  • Don Bredin
  • John Parsons

Abstract

This study examines carbon spot and futures price relationships and the dynamics of the carbon term structure in the European Union Emission Trading Scheme (ETS) between 2005-2014. Using spot and futures prices, we calculate an implied cost of carry. According to received theory, the cost of carry is—with some ex-ceptions—just the opportunity cost of money, so that the term structure of the cost of carry should exactly equal the term structure interest rates. However, we show that spot carbon allowances were originally expensive relative to futures, but since late 2008 the situation reversed and spot carbon allowances have been persistently cheap relative to futures prices. This dramatic shift coincides with the onset of the global financial crisis in late 2008 and the ongoing European banking crisis of 2010-2013.

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  • Don Bredin & John Parsons, 2016. "Why is Spot Carbon so Cheap and Future Carbon so Dear? The Term Structure of Carbon Prices," The Energy Journal, , vol. 37(3), pages 83-108, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:enejou:v:37:y:2016:i:3:p:83-108
    DOI: 10.5547/01956574.37.3.dbre
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    Cited by:

    1. Federico Galán-Valdivieso & Elena Villar-Rubio & María-Dolores Huete-Morales, 2018. "The erratic behaviour of the EU ETS on the path towards consolidation and price stability," International Environmental Agreements: Politics, Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 18(5), pages 689-706, October.
    2. Simon Quemin, 2016. "Intertemporal abatement decisions under ambiguity aversion in a cap and trade," Working Papers 1604, Chaire Economie du climat.
    3. Quemin, Simon & Trotignon, Raphaël, 2021. "Emissions trading with rolling horizons," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    4. Michele Azzone & Roberto Baviera & Pietro Manzoni, 2024. "The puzzle of Carbon Allowance spread," Papers 2405.12982, arXiv.org.
    5. Simon Quemin & Raphael Trotignon, 2018. "Competitive Permit Storage and Market Design: An Application to the EU-ETS," Working Papers 2018.19, FAERE - French Association of Environmental and Resource Economists.
    6. Zhang, Chen & Yang, Yu & Yun, Po, 2020. "Risk measurement of international carbon market based on multiple risk factors heterogeneous dependence," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 32(C).
    7. Palao, Fernando & Pardo, Ángel, 2021. "The inconvenience yield of carbon futures," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    8. Salant, Stephen W., 2015. "What Ails the European Union's Emissions Trading System? Two Diagnoses Calling for Different Treatments," RFF Working Paper Series dp-15-30, Resources for the Future.
    9. Eslahi, Mohammadehsan & Mazza, Paolo, 2023. "Can weather variables and electricity demand predict carbon emissions allowances prices? Evidence from the first three phases of the EU ETS," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 214(C).
    10. Yu Yan & Yiming Lei & Yuyang Tang & Xufeng Zhao, 2023. "Ineffectiveness of carbon cap-and-trade market," Energy & Environment, , vol. 34(7), pages 2317-2342, November.
    11. Batten, Jonathan A. & Maddox, Grace E. & Young, Martin R., 2021. "Does weather, or energy prices, affect carbon prices?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    12. Saikat Mondal & Rudra P. Pradhan & Vinodh Madhavan & Debaleena Chatterjee & Ann Mary Varghese, 2024. "Carbon Emissions Pricing: Linkages Between EU ETS Spot and Future Prices and Completeness of EU ETS Market," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 23(4), pages 450-470, December.
    13. Friedrich, Marina & Mauer, Eva-Maria & Pahle, Michael & Tietjen, Oliver, 2020. "From fundamentals to financial assets: the evolution of understanding price formation in the EU ETS," EconStor Preprints 196150, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, revised 2020.
    14. Karishma Ansaram & Paolo Mazza, 2024. "Dependence Structure among Carbon Markets around the World: New Evidence from GARCH-Copula Analysis," The Energy Journal, , vol. 45(2), pages 237-260, March.
    15. repec:crb:wpaper:2023-01 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Jianguo Zhou & Xuejing Huo & Xiaolei Xu & Yushuo Li, 2019. "Forecasting the Carbon Price Using Extreme-Point Symmetric Mode Decomposition and Extreme Learning Machine Optimized by the Grey Wolf Optimizer Algorithm," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(5), pages 1-22, March.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    CO2 prices; EU ETS; Energy; Kyoto Protocol;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F0 - International Economics - - General

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