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Developing a Structured Forecasting and Policy Analysis System to Support Inflation-Forecast Targeting (IFT)

Author

Listed:
  • Mr. Douglas Laxton
  • Mr. Alasdair Scott
  • David Rose

Abstract

This paper presents a basic plan for developing a Forecast and Policy Analysis System designed to support an inflation-forecast targeting regime at a central bank. It includes discussion of the development of data management and reporting processes; the creation of a forecast team and the development of human capital; the implementation of a simple model, plus possible extensions; and the management of regular economic projections. We emphasize that it is better to implement simple models earlier and use them well, rather than wait in an attempt to develop an all-encompassing model.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Douglas Laxton & Mr. Alasdair Scott & David Rose, 2009. "Developing a Structured Forecasting and Policy Analysis System to Support Inflation-Forecast Targeting (IFT)," IMF Working Papers 2009/065, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2009/065
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-1176, December.
    2. Guy Meredith & Menzie D. Chinn, 1998. "Long-Horizon Uncovered Interest Rate Parity," NBER Working Papers 6797, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Douglas Laxton, 2008. "Getting to Know the Global Economy Model and Its Philosophy," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 55(2), pages 213-242, June.
    4. Mr. Douglas Laxton & Mr. Michael Kumhof, 2007. "A Party without a Hangover? On the Effects of U.S. Government Deficits," IMF Working Papers 2007/202, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Mr. Douglas Laxton & Mr. Andrew Berg & Mr. Philippe D Karam, 2006. "Practical Model-Based Monetary Policy Analysis: A How-To Guide," IMF Working Papers 2006/081, International Monetary Fund.
    6. International Monetary Fund, 2009. "Inflation Targeting Under Imperfect Policy Credibility," IMF Working Papers 2009/094, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Viktor Kotlán, 2001. "Monetary policy and the term structure of interest rates in a small open economy - a model framework approach," Macroeconomics 0110003, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Fadia Al Hajj & Gilles Dufrénot & Kimiko Sugimoto & Romain Wolf, 2015. "Reactions to Shocks and Monetary Policy Regimes: Inflation Targeting Versus Flexible Currency Board in Sub-Saharan Africa," The Developing Economies, Institute of Developing Economies, vol. 53(4), pages 237-271, December.
    3. Aymen Makni, 2019. "A Macro-Model to Monetary Transmission Analysis in Tunisia," IHEID Working Papers 13-2019, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    4. Zeno Ronald R. Abenoja & Jasmin E. Dacio & Sarah Jane A. Castañares & Jan Christopher G. Ocampo & Mark Rex S. Romaraog, 2022. "The BSP's Forecasting and Policy Analysis System," Philippine Review of Economics, University of the Philippines School of Economics and Philippine Economic Society, vol. 59(1), pages 77-107, June.
    5. Mr. Douglas Laxton & Mr. Andrew Berg & Mr. Philippe D Karam, 2006. "A Practical Model-Based Approach to Monetary Policy Analysis—Overview," IMF Working Papers 2006/080, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Ding Ding & Rahul Anand & Mr. Shanaka J Peiris, 2011. "Towards Inflation Targeting in Sri Lanka," IMF Working Papers 2011/081, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Jorge Canales-Kriljenko & Turgut Kisinbay & Rodolfo Maino & Eric Parrado, 2006. "Setting the Operational Framework for Producing Inflation Forecasts," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 362, Central Bank of Chile.
    8. Sergiy Nikolaychuk & Yurii Sholomytskyi, 2015. "Using Macroeconomic Models for Monetary Policy in Ukraine," Visnyk of the National Bank of Ukraine, National Bank of Ukraine, issue 233, pages 54-64, September.
    9. Mr. Shanaka J Peiris & Ding Ding, 2012. "Global Commodity Prices, Monetary Transmission, and Exchange Rate Pass-Through in the Pacific Islands," IMF Working Papers 2012/176, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Katerina Smidkova, 2003. "Methods Available to Monetary Policy Makers to Deal with Uncertainty," Macroeconomics 0310002, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Thitipat Chansriniyom & Mr. Natan P. Epstein & Valeriu Nalban, 2020. "The Monetary Policy Credibility Channel and the Amplification Effects in a Semi-structural Model," IMF Working Papers 2020/201, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Mr. Marcel Peter & Mr. Scott Roger & Mr. Geoffrey M Heenan, 2006. "Implementing Inflation Targeting: Institutional Arrangements, Target Design, and Communications," IMF Working Papers 2006/278, International Monetary Fund.

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