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Crude Oil Prices: Trends and Forecast

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  • Mr. Noureddine Krichene

Abstract

Following record low interest rates and fast depreciating U.S. dollar, crude oil prices became under rising pressure and seemed boundless. Oil price process parameters changed drastically in 2003M5-2007M10 toward consistently rising prices. Short-term forecasting would imply persistence of observed trends, as market fundamentals and underlying monetary policies were supportive of these trends. Market expectations derived from option prices anticipated further surge in oil prices and allowed significant probability for right tail events. Given explosive trends in other commodities prices, depreciating currencies, and weakening financial conditions, recent trends in oil prices might not persist further without triggering world economic recession, regressive oil supply, as oil producers became wary about inflation. Restoring stable oil markets, through restraining monetary policy, is essential for durable growth and price stability.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Noureddine Krichene, 2008. "Crude Oil Prices: Trends and Forecast," IMF Working Papers 2008/133, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2008/133
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    2. Chevillon, Guillaume & Rifflart, Christine, 2009. "Physical market determinants of the price of crude oil and the market premium," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 537-549, July.
    3. Zhan-Ming Chen & Liyuan Wang & Xiao-Bing Zhang & Xinye Zheng, 2019. "The Co-Movement and Asymmetry between Energy and Grain Prices: Evidence from the Crude Oil and Corn Markets," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(7), pages 1-18, April.
    4. Gu, Yewen & Wallace, Stein W. & Wang, Xin, 2016. "Integrated maritime bunker management with stochastic fuel prices and new emission regulations," Discussion Papers 2016/13, Norwegian School of Economics, Department of Business and Management Science.
    5. Yewen Gu & Stein W. Wallace & Xin Wang, 2017. "The Impact of Bunker Risk Management on CO2 Emissions in Maritime Transportation Under ECA Regulation," Springer Optimization and Its Applications, in: Didem Cinar & Konstantinos Gakis & Panos M. Pardalos (ed.), Sustainable Logistics and Transportation, pages 199-224, Springer.
    6. Hernández, Juan Antonio & Benito, Rosa Marı´a & Losada, Juan Carlos, 2012. "An adaptive stochastic model for financial markets," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 45(6), pages 899-908.
    7. Wang, Shuang & Wallace, Stein W. & Lu, Jing & Gu, Yewen, 2020. "Handling financial risks in crude oil imports: Taking into account crude oil prices as well as country and transportation risks," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).

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