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An Oil and Gas Model

Author

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  • Mr. Noureddine Krichene

Abstract

This paper formulated a short-run model, with an explicit role for monetary policy, for analyzing world oil and gas markets. The model described carefully the parameters of these markets and their vulnerability to business cycles. Estimates showed that short-run demand for oil and gas was price- inelastic, relatively income-elastic, and was influenced by interest and exchange rates; short-run supply was price-inelastic. Short-run price inelasticity could be a source for high volatility in oil and gas prices, and could confer to producers a temporary market power. Being simultaneous and incorporating interest and exchange rates, the model could be useful in short-term forecasting of oil and gas outputs and prices under policy scenarios.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Noureddine Krichene, 2007. "An Oil and Gas Model," IMF Working Papers 2007/135, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2007/135
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Maslyuk, Svetlana & Smyth, Russell, 2008. "Unit root properties of crude oil spot and futures prices," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(7), pages 2591-2600, July.
    2. Chevillon, Guillaume & Rifflart, Christine, 2009. "Physical market determinants of the price of crude oil and the market premium," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 537-549, July.
    3. Mr. Noureddine Krichene, 2008. "Crude Oil Prices: Trends and Forecast," IMF Working Papers 2008/133, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Gatfaoui, Hayette, 2016. "Linking the gas and oil markets with the stock market: Investigating the U.S. relationship," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 5-16.
    5. Mensi, Walid & Rehman, Mobeen Ur & Maitra, Debasish & Al-Yahyaee, Khamis Hamed & Vo, Xuan Vinh, 2021. "Oil, natural gas and BRICS stock markets: Evidence of systemic risks and co-movements in the time-frequency domain," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    6. Robert Socha & Piotr Wdowiński, 2018. "Tendencje zmian cen na światowym rynku ropy naftowej po 2000 roku," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 1, pages 103-135.
    7. Latife Ghalayini, 2017. "Modeling and forecasting spot oil price," Eurasian Business Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 7(3), pages 355-373, December.
    8. Robert Socha & Piotr Wdowiński, 2018. "Crude oil price and speculative activity: a cointegration analysis," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, vol. 10(3), pages 263-304, September.
    9. Shibata, Tsubasa, 2016. "Modeling for the world crude oil and natural gas markets," IDE Discussion Papers 584, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).
    10. Douwe Kingma & Wim Suyker, 2004. "FAQs about oil and the world economy," CPB Memorandum 104, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    11. Douwe Kingma & Wim Suyker, 2004. "FAQs about oil and the world economy," CPB Memorandum 104.rdf, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    WP; demand price; demand shock;
    All these keywords.

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