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A Primer for Risk Measurement of Bonded Debt from the Perspective of a Sovereign Debt Manager

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  • Mr. Michael G. Papaioannou

Abstract

This paper presents some conventional and new measures of market, credit, and liquidity risks for government bonds. These measures are analyzed from the perspective of a sovereign's debt manager. In particular, it examines duration, convexity, M-square, skewness, kurtosis, and VaR statistics as measures of interest rate exposure; a VaR statistic as the prominent measure of exchange rate exposure; the balance sheet approach (or contingent claims approach), and its consequent probability of default as the most promising measure of credit risk exposure; and an elasticity approach and a VaR statistic to measure liquidity risk. Along with the formulas for the various statistics proposed, we provide simple examples of their application to some common risk valuation cases. Finally, we present an integrated approach for the simultaneous estimation of a portfolio's interest rate and exchange rate risk using the VaR methodology. The integrated approach is then extended to also include N risk factors. This approach allows us to measure the total risk of a portfolio, provided that the volatilities and correlations among the risk factors can be estimated.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Michael G. Papaioannou, 2006. "A Primer for Risk Measurement of Bonded Debt from the Perspective of a Sovereign Debt Manager," IMF Working Papers 2006/195, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2006/195
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    9. Linsmeier, Thomas J. & Pearson, Neil D., 1996. "Risk measurement: an introduction to value at risk," ACE Reports 14796, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics.
    10. Merton, Robert C, 1974. "On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-470, May.
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    13. Michael T. Gapen & Mr. Dale F Gray & Cheng Hoon Lim & Ms. Yingbin Xiao, 2005. "Measuring and Analyzing Sovereign Risk with Contingent Claims," IMF Working Papers 2005/155, International Monetary Fund.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ms. Magdalena Polan & Parmeshwar Ramlogan & Mr. Carlos I. Medeiros, 2007. "A Primer on Sovereign Debt Buybacks and Swaps," IMF Working Papers 2007/058, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Mr. Udaibir S Das & Miss Yinqiu Lu & Mr. Michael G. Papaioannou & Iva Petrova, 2012. "Sovereign Risk and Asset and Liability Management: Conceptual Issues," IMF Working Papers 2012/241, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Cangoz,Mehmet Coskun & Sulla,Olga & Wang,ChunLan & Dychala,Christopher Benjamin, 2019. "A Joint Foreign Currency Risk Management Approach for Sovereign Assets and Liabilities," Policy Research Working Paper Series 8728, The World Bank.
    4. Thordur Jonasson & Mr. Michael G. Papaioannou, 2018. "A Primer on Managing Sovereign Debt-Portfolio Risks," IMF Working Papers 2018/074, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Michael Papaioannou, 2011. "Sovereign debt portfolios: risks and liability management operations," Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(3), pages 354-360.

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