IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/deveco/v93y2010i2p287-298.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Fiscal inertia, donor credibility, and the monetary management of aid surges

Author

Listed:
  • Buffie, Edward F.
  • O'Connell, Stephen A.
  • Adam, Christopher

Abstract

Donors cannot pre-commit to support scaled-up public spending programs on a continuing basis, nor can governments credibly commit to curtail expenditure rapidly in the event that aid revenues contract. An aid boom may therefore be accompanied by a credibility problem. When this is the case, the absorb-and-spend strategy recommended by the IMF leads to capital flight, higher inflation, and large current account surpluses inclusive of aid. The right policy package combines a critical minimum degree of fiscal restraint with reverse sterilization.

Suggested Citation

  • Buffie, Edward F. & O'Connell, Stephen A. & Adam, Christopher, 2010. "Fiscal inertia, donor credibility, and the monetary management of aid surges," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(2), pages 287-298, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:deveco:v:93:y:2010:i:2:p:287-298
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304-3878(09)00096-0
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Eifert, Benn & Gelb, Alan, 2005. "Improving the dynamics of aid : towards more predictable budget support," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3732, The World Bank.
    2. Mr. Andrew Berg & Mr. Mumtaz Hussain & Mr. Shaun K. Roache & Ms. Amber A Mahone & Mr. Tokhir N Mirzoev & Mr. Shekhar Aiyar, 2007. "The Macroeconomics of Scaling Up Aid: Lessons from Recent Experience," IMF Occasional Papers 2007/002, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Asea, Patrick K & Reinhart, Carmen M, 1996. "Le Prix de l'Argent: How (Not) to Deal with Capital Inflows," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 5(3), pages 231-271, October.
    4. Ale Bulir & A. Javier Hamann, 2003. "Aid Volatility: An Empirical Assessment," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 50(1), pages 1-4.
    5. Robert Lensink & Oliver Morrissey, 2000. "Aid instability as a measure of uncertainty and the positive impact of aid on growth," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(3), pages 31-49.
    6. Buffie, Edward & Adam, Christopher & O'Connell, Stephen & Pattillo, Catherine, 2008. "Riding the wave: Monetary responses to aid surges in low-income countries," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(8), pages 1378-1395, November.
    7. Fedderke, J. W. & Liu, W., 2002. "Modelling the determinants of capital flows and capital flight: with an application to South African data from 1960 to 1995," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 419-444, May.
    8. Neil R. Ericsson & Steven B. Kamin, 1993. "Dollarization in Argentina," International Finance Discussion Papers 460, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    9. Bulír, Ales & Hamann, A. Javier, 2008. "Volatility of Development Aid: From the Frying Pan into the Fire?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 36(10), pages 2048-2066, October.
    10. Henstridge, N M, 1999. "De-monetisation, Inflation and Coffee: The Demand for Money in Uganda," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 8(3), pages 345-385, October.
    11. Marquez, Jaime, 1987. "Money demand in open economies: A currency substitution model for Venezuela," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 6(2), pages 167-178, June.
    12. David Fielding, 1994. "Money Demand in Four African Countries," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 21(2), pages 3-37, May.
    13. Blundell, Richard, 1988. "Consumer Behaviour: Theory and Empirical Evidence--a Survey," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 98(389), pages 16-65, March.
    14. Blundell, Richard & Pashardes, Panos & Weber, Guglielmo, 1993. "What Do We Learn About Consumer Demand Patterns from Micro Data?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(3), pages 570-597, June.
    15. Mr. Jean-Claude Nachega, 2001. "Financial Liberalization, Money Demand, and Inflation in Uganda," IMF Working Papers 2001/118, International Monetary Fund.
    16. Mr. Miguel A Savastano, 1996. "Dollarization in Latin America: Recent Evidence and Some Policy Issues," IMF Working Papers 1996/004, International Monetary Fund.
    17. Adam, Christopher, 1999. "Financial Liberalisation and Currency Demand in Zambia," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 8(3), pages 268-306, October.
    18. Stephane Pallage & Michel A. Robe, 2003. "On the Welfare Cost of Economic Fluctuations in Developing Countries," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 44(2), pages 677-698, May.
    19. Mr. Timothy D. Lane & Mr. Ales Bulir, 2002. "Aid and Fiscal Management," IMF Working Papers 2002/112, International Monetary Fund.
    20. International Monetary Fund, 2003. "Ghana: Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 2003/134, International Monetary Fund.
    21. Philip R. Lane & Aaron Tornell, 1999. "The Voracity Effect," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(1), pages 22-46, March.
    22. Mr. Peter S. Heller, 2005. "Pity the Finance Minister: Issues in Managing a Substantial Scaling-Up of Aid Flows," IMF Working Papers 2005/180, International Monetary Fund.
    23. C. L. Ramirez-Rojas, 1985. "Currency Substitution in Argentina, Mexico, and Uruguay (Substitution de monnaie en Argentine, au Mexique et en Uruguay) (Sustitución de moneda en Argentina, México y Uruguay)," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 32(4), pages 629-667, December.
    24. Arellano, Cristina & Bulír, Ales & Lane, Timothy & Lipschitz, Leslie, 2009. "The dynamic implications of foreign aid and its variability," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(1), pages 87-102, January.
    25. Mr. Adam Bennett & Mr. Eduardo Borensztein & Mr. Tomás J. T. Baliño, 1999. "Monetary Policy in Dollarized Economies," IMF Occasional Papers 1999/003, International Monetary Fund.
    26. Deaton,Angus & Muellbauer,John, 1980. "Economics and Consumer Behavior," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521296762, October.
    27. Oya Celasun & Jan Walliser, 2008. "Predictability of aid: Do fickle donors undermine aid effectiveness? [‘The colonial origins of comparative development: An empirical investigation’]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 23(55), pages 546-594.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Christopher Adam & Stephen O’Connell & Edward Buffie, 2007. "Monetary Policy Rules For Manging Aid Surges In Africa," WEF Working Papers 0016, ESRC World Economy and Finance Research Programme, Birkbeck, University of London.
    2. Fischer, A.M., 2017. "Dilemmas of externally financing domestic expenditures: Rethinking the political economy of aid and social protection through the monetary transformation dilemma," ISS Working Papers - General Series 629, International Institute of Social Studies of Erasmus University Rotterdam (ISS), The Hague.
    3. Oliver Morrissey & Lionel Roger & Lars Spreng, 2019. "Aid and exchange rates in sub-Saharan Africa: No more Dutch Disease?," Discussion Papers 2019-07, University of Nottingham, CREDIT.
    4. Berg, Andrew & Portillo, Rafael & Zanna, Luis-Felipe, 2015. "Policy Responses to Aid Surges in Countries with Limited International Capital Mobility: The Role of the Exchange Rate Regime," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 116-129.
    5. Eric Gabin Kilama, 2014. "Recipients aid absorption in the new development cooperation landscape," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 34(3), pages 1929-1944.
    6. Kilama, Eric Gabin, 2016. "The influence of China and emerging donors aid allocation: A recipient perspective," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 76-91.
    7. Buffie, Edward & Adam, Christopher & O'Connell, Stephen & Pattillo, Catherine, 2008. "Riding the wave: Monetary responses to aid surges in low-income countries," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(8), pages 1378-1395, November.
    8. Carter, Patrick, 2017. "Aid econometrics: Lessons from a stochastic growth model," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 216-232.
    9. Chatterjee Santanu & Giuliano Paola & Kaya Ilker, 2012. "Where Has All the Money Gone? Foreign Aid and the Composition of Government Spending," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 12(1), pages 1-36, August.
    10. Annen, Kurt & Batu, Michael & Kosempel, Stephen, 2016. "Macroeconomic effects of foreign aid and remittances: Implications for aid effectiveness studies," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 38(6), pages 1136-1146.
    11. Gaoussou Diarra, 2011. "Aid unpredictability and absorptive capacity: analyzing disbursement delays in Africa," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 31(1), pages 1004-1017.
    12. Kurt Annen & Michael Batu & Stephen Kosempel, 2014. "A DSGE-RBC Approach to Measuring Impacts of Wealth Transfers," Working Papers 1404, University of Guelph, Department of Economics and Finance.
    13. Oscar Becerra & Eduardo Cavallo & Ilan Noy, 2010. "In the Aftermath of Large Natural Disasters, what happens to foreign aid?," Working Papers 201018, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Buffie, Edward & Adam, Christopher & O'Connell, Stephen & Pattillo, Catherine, 2008. "Riding the wave: Monetary responses to aid surges in low-income countries," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(8), pages 1378-1395, November.
    2. Ms. Catherine A Pattillo & Mr. Stephen A. O'Connell & Mr. Christopher S Adam & Mr. Edward F Buffie, 2004. "Exchange Rate Policy and the Management of Official and Private Capital Flows in Africa," IMF Working Papers 2004/216, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Gaoussou Diarra, 2011. "Aid unpredictability and absorptive capacity: analyzing disbursement delays in Africa," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 31(1), pages 1004-1017.
    4. Temple, Jonathan R.W., 2010. "Aid and Conditionality," Handbook of Development Economics, in: Dani Rodrik & Mark Rosenzweig (ed.), Handbook of Development Economics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 0, pages 4415-4523, Elsevier.
    5. Edward F. Buffie & Manoj Atolia, 2011. "Exchange‐Rate‐based Stabilisation, Durables Consumption and the Stylised Facts," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 121(555), pages 1130-1160, September.
    6. Arellano, Cristina & Bulír, Ales & Lane, Timothy & Lipschitz, Leslie, 2009. "The dynamic implications of foreign aid and its variability," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(1), pages 87-102, January.
    7. Tingley, Dustin, 2010. "Donors and domestic politics: Political influences on foreign aid effort," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 40-49, February.
    8. Hudson, John & Mosley, Paul, 2008. "Aid Volatility, Policy and Development," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 36(10), pages 2082-2102, October.
    9. Boateng, Elliot & Agbola, Frank W. & Mahmood, Amir, 2021. "Foreign aid volatility and economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa: Does institutional quality matter?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 111-127.
    10. Jean-Louis COMBES & Rasmané OUEDRAOGO, 2014. "Does Pro-cyclical Aid Lead to Pro-cyclical Fiscal Policy? An Empirical Analysis for Sub-Saharan Africa," Working Papers 201424, CERDI.
    11. Mr. Sanjeev Gupta & Ms. Catherine A Pattillo & Ms. Smita Wagh, 2006. "Are Donor Countries Giving More or Less Aid?," IMF Working Papers 2006/001, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Hudson, John, 2015. "Consequences of Aid Volatility for Macroeconomic Management and Aid Effectiveness," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 62-74.
    13. Panika Jain & Samaresh Bardhan, 2023. "Energy aid volatility across developing countries: a disaggregated sectoral analysis," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 20(3), pages 457-483, July.
    14. Mr. Thierry Tressel & Mr. Alessandro Prati, 2006. "Aid Volatility and Dutch Disease: Is There a Role for Macroeconomic Policies?," IMF Working Papers 2006/145, International Monetary Fund.
    15. Hudson, John, 2015. "Consequences of Aid Volatility for Macroeconomic Management and Aid Effectiveness," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 62-74.
    16. Eifert, Benn & Gelb, Alan, 2008. "Reforming Aid: Toward More Predictable, Performance-Based Financing for Development," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 36(10), pages 2067-2081, October.
    17. Fahmida Khatun & Syed Yusuf Saadat & Md. Kamruzzaman, 2019. "FINANCE FOR SDGs: Addressing Governance Challenge of Aid Utilisation in Bangladesh," CPD Working Paper 125, Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD).
    18. Sena Kimm GNANGNON, 2012. "The Effect of Development Aid Unpredictability and Migrants’ Remittances on Fiscal Consolidation in Developing Countries," Working Papers 201210, CERDI.
    19. Lisa Chauvet & Patrick Guillaumont, 2009. "Aid, Volatility, and Growth Again: When Aid Volatility Matters and When it Does Not," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(3), pages 452-463, August.
    20. Gnangnon, Sèna Kimm, 2021. "Aid for trade unpredictability and trade-related government expenditure in recipient-countries," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 107-125.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:deveco:v:93:y:2010:i:2:p:287-298. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/devec .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.