IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/imf/imfwpa/2003-140.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Trade Elasticities and Market Expectations in Brazil

Author

Listed:
  • Mr. Claudio A Paiva

Abstract

This paper provides econometric estimates of trade elasticities for Brazil obtained through cointegration and vector auto regression models and controlling for the effects of exchange rate volatility, capacity utilization, and changes in import tariffs. The results suggest that (i) recent market expectations may have been unduly pessimistic regarding the responsiveness of Brazil's trade flows to the real exchange rate, but (ii) the GDP growth rates targeted by the new government may put downward pressure on the exchange rate and thus render the achievement of official inflation targets considerably more difficult if structural reforms are not implemented.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Claudio A Paiva, 2003. "Trade Elasticities and Market Expectations in Brazil," IMF Working Papers 2003/140, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2003/140
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=16612
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Arize, Augustine C & Osang, Thomas & Slottje, Daniel J, 2000. "Exchange-Rate Volatility and Foreign Trade: Evidence from Thirteen LDC's," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 18(1), pages 10-17, January.
    2. Luiz Fernando Figueiredo & Pedro Fachada & Sérgio Goldenstein, 2002. "Monetary Policy in Brazil: Remarks on the Inflation Targeting Regime, Public Debt Management and Open Market Operations," Working Papers Series 37, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    3. Bughin, Jacques, 1996. "Capacity Constraints and Export Performance: Theory and Evidence from Belgian Manufacturing," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(2), pages 187-204, June.
    4. Abdelhak Senhadji, 1998. "Time-Series Estimation of Structural Import Demand Equations: A Cross-Country Analysis," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(2), pages 236-268, June.
    5. Olivier Jeanne & Andrew K. Rose, 2002. "Noise Trading and Exchange Rate Regimes," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 117(2), pages 537-569.
    6. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    7. Marcelo Kfoury Muinhos, 2001. "Inflation Targeting in an Open Financially Integrated Emerging Economy: the case of Brazil," Working Papers Series 26, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    8. Michael D. McKenzie, 1999. "The Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility on International Trade Flows," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(1), pages 71-106, February.
    9. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501.
    10. Devereux, Michael B. & Engel, Charles, 2002. "Exchange rate pass-through, exchange rate volatility, and exchange rate disconnect," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(5), pages 913-940, July.
    11. Krugman, Paul, 1989. "Differences in income elasticities and trends in real exchange rates," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 1031-1046, May.
    12. Luiz Fernando Figueiredo & Pedro Fachada & Sérgio Goldenstein, 2002. "Public debt management and open market operations in Brazil," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), The development of bond markets in emerging economies, volume 11, pages 81-85, Bank for International Settlements.
    13. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Chui, Michael K F, 1999. "Estimating Income and Price Elasticities of Trade in a Cointegration Framework," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(2), pages 254-264, May.
    14. Jackson, John D. & Smyth, David J., 1985. "Specifying differential cyclical response in economic time series : Capacity utilization and demand for imports," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 149-161, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Samuel Carrasco & Diego Gianelli & Carolina Godoy, 2015. "Sensibilidad de las Exportaciones al TCR: Un Análisis Sectorial y por Destino," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 745, Central Bank of Chile.
    2. Araujo, Aloisio & Leon, Marcia & Santos, Rafael, 2012. "Speculative attacks, openness and crises," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 66(2), June.
    3. Palazzo, Gabriel & Rapetti, Martín, 2023. "From macro to micro and macro back: Macroeconomic trade elasticities in a developing economy," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 223-252.
    4. repec:fgv:epgrbe:v:66:n:2:a:1 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Thierry Buchs, 2005. "Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate In Brazil Estimation And Policy Implications," International Trade 0502013, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Brieuc Monfort, 2008. "Chile: Trade Performance, Trade Liberalization, and Competitiveness," IMF Working Papers 2008/128, International Monetary Fund.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kuikeu, Oscar, 2011. "Arguments contre la zone franc [Against the cfa franc zone]," MPRA Paper 33710, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Erdal Demirhan & Banu Demirhan, 2015. "The Dynamic Effect of ExchangeRate Volatility on Turkish Exports: Parsimonious Error-Correction Model Approach," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 62(4), pages 429-451, September.
    3. Jonathan M. Chipili, 2013. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Trade Flows in Zambia," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 25(1), pages 55-66, March.
    4. Khee Giap Tan & Luu Nguyen Trieu Duong & Hui Yin Chuah, 2019. "Impact of exchange rates on ASEAN's trade in the era of global value chains: An empirical assessment," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(7), pages 873-901, October.
    5. Bernardina Algieri, 2014. "Drivers of Export Demand: A Focus on the GIIPS Countries," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(10), pages 1454-1482, October.
    6. Chi, Junwook, 2014. "Income and Exchange Rate Sensitivities of Cross-Border Freight Flows: Evidence from U.S.-Canada Exports and Imports by Truck, Rail, Air, and Pipeline," Journal of the Transportation Research Forum, Transportation Research Forum, vol. 53(2).
    7. Abimelech Paye Gbatu & Zhen Wang & Presley K. Wesseh Jr. & Isaac Yak Repha Tutdel, 2017. "Causal Effects and Dynamic Relationship between Exchange Rate Volatility and Economic Development in Liberia," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 7(4), pages 119-131.
    8. Bibhuti Ranjan Mishra & Asit Mohanty, 2017. "An Empirical Analysis of Aggregate Import Demand Function for India," Global Economy Journal (GEJ), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 17(4), pages 1-12, December.
    9. Juan Carlos Moreno‐Brid, 2003. "Capital Flows, Interest Payments and the Balance‐of‐Payments Constrained Growth Model: A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 54(2‐3), pages 346-365, May.
    10. Jaramillo-Villanueva, Jose Luis & Sarker, Rakhal, 2009. "Exchange Rate Sensitivity of Fresh Tomatoes Imports from Mexico to the United States," 2009 Conference, August 16-22, 2009, Beijing, China 51459, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    11. Mathias Hoffmann & Ronald MacDonald, 2003. "A Re-examination of the Link between Real Exchange Rates and Real Interest Rate Differentials," CESifo Working Paper Series 894, CESifo.
    12. Menzie D. Chinn, 2004. "Incomes, Exchange Rates and the US Trade Deficit, Once Again," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(3), pages 451-469, December.
    13. Maradiaga, David Isaias & Zapata, Hector O. & Pujula, Aude Liliana, 2012. "Exchange Rate Volatility in BRICS Countries," 2012 Annual Meeting, February 4-7, 2012, Birmingham, Alabama 119726, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    14. Choudhry, Taufiq, 2005. "Exchange rate volatility and the United States exports: evidence from Canada and Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 51-71, March.
    15. Nishimura, Yusaku & Hirayama, Kenjiro, 2013. "Does exchange rate volatility deter Japan-China trade? Evidence from pre- and post-exchange rate reform in China," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 25, pages 90-101.
    16. Montobbio, Fabio & Rampa, Francesco, 2005. "The impact of technology and structural change on export performance in nine developing countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 527-547, April.
    17. Pål Boug & Andreas Fagereng, 2010. "Exchange rate volatility and export performance: a cointegrated VAR approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(7), pages 851-864.
    18. Yi Wu, 2008. "Growth, Expansion of Markets, and Income Elasticities in World Trade," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(4), pages 654-671, September.
    19. André Soares Loureiro & Fernando de Holanda Barbosa, 2004. "Risk Premia for Emerging Markets Bonds: Evidence from Brazilian Government Debt, 1996-2002," Working Papers Series 85, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    20. Verheyen, Florian, 2012. "Bilateral exports from euro zone countries to the US — Does exchange rate variability play a role?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 97-108.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2003/140. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Akshay Modi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/imfffus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.