IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/imf/imfwpa/2002-205.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

An Analysis of Money Demand and Inflation in the Islamic Republic of Iran

Author

Listed:
  • Mr. Mangal Goswami
  • Oya Celasun

Abstract

This study examines money demand and inflation dynamics in the Islamic Republic of Iran using quarterly data for the period 1990/91-2001/02 and tests whether the disinflation during 2000/01-2001/02 represents a structural break in the data. A long-run money market equilibrium condition is identified and the short-run behavior of the inflation, measured in terms of non-administered component of the consumer price index (CPI) is modeled conditional on the disequilibria in the money market. Estimation results indicate that the stabilization of the exchange rate on account of strong oil revenues during 2000/01-2001/02 buoyed the demand for domestic money and contributed to the decline in inflation. Tests of model stability do not point to a structural shift in the inflation equation during the period of analysis.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Mangal Goswami & Oya Celasun, 2002. "An Analysis of Money Demand and Inflation in the Islamic Republic of Iran," IMF Working Papers 2002/205, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2002/205
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=16118
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-1072, June.
    2. Phillips, P C B, 1987. "Time Series Regression with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 277-301, March.
    3. Pantula, Sastry G & Gonzalez-Farias, Graciela & Fuller, Wayne A, 1994. "A Comparison of Unit-Root Test Criteria," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(4), pages 449-459, October.
    4. International Monetary Fund, 1999. "Exchange Rate Unification, the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate, and Choice of Exchange Rate Regime: The Case of the Islamic Republic of Iran," IMF Working Papers 1999/015, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Mrs. O. Liu & Mr. Olumuyiwa S Adedeji, 2000. "Determinants of Inflation in the Islamic Republic of Iran: A Macroeconomic Analysis," IMF Working Papers 2000/127, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    7. MacKinnon, James G, 1994. "Approximate Asymptotic Distribution Functions for Unit-Root and Cointegration Tests," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(2), pages 167-176, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Esfahani, Hadi Salehi & Mohaddes, Kamiar & Pesaran, M. Hashem, 2013. "Oil exports and the Iranian economy," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(3), pages 221-237.
    2. Somayeh Mardaneh, 2015. "Inflation Dynamics in a Dutch Disease Economy," Iranian Economic Review (IER), Faculty of Economics,University of Tehran.Tehran,Iran, vol. 19(3), pages 295-324, Autumn.
    3. Dario Laudati & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2023. "Identifying the effects of sanctions on the Iranian economy using newspaper coverage," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(3), pages 271-294, April.
    4. Magda Kandil & Hanan Morsy, 2011. "Determinants of Inflation in GCC," Middle East Development Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(2), pages 141-158, January.
    5. Karim Eslamloueyan & Ali Darvishi, 2007. "Credit Expansion and Inflation in Iran: An Unrestricted Error Correction Model," Iranian Economic Review (IER), Faculty of Economics,University of Tehran.Tehran,Iran, vol. 12(2), pages 105-126, spring.
    6. Gabriel Di Bella & Mr. David Hauner, 2005. "How Useful is Monetary Econometrics in Low-Income Countries? T+L3104he Case of Money Demand and the Multipliers in Rwanda," IMF Working Papers 2005/178, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Amin Yousefi-Sahzabi & Kyuro Sasaki & Hossein Yousefi & Yuichi Sugai, 2011. "CO 2 emission and economic growth of Iran," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 16(1), pages 63-82, January.
    8. Oomes, Nienke & Ohnsorge, Franziska, 2005. "Money demand and inflation in dollarized economies: The case of Russia," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 462-483, September.
    9. Mr. Selim A Elekdag & Nabil Ben Ltaifa & Todd Schneider & Mr. Saade Chami, 2007. "Can a Rule-Based Monetary Policy Framework Work in a Developing Country? The Case of Yemen," IMF Working Papers 2007/006, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Bent Nielsen & Andrew Whitby, 2015. "A Joint Chow Test for Structural Instability," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 3(1), pages 1-31, March.
    11. Bonato , Leo & Jbili , Abdelali, 2009. "Monetary Policy in Iran: The Challenge of Reducing Inflation," Journal of Money and Economy, Monetary and Banking Research Institute, Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran, vol. 5(2), pages 129-148, April.
    12. International Monetary Fund, 2004. "Islamic Republic of Iran: Selected Issues Paper," IMF Staff Country Reports 2004/308, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Kandil Magda & Mirzaie Ida A., 2017. "Iran’s Inflationary Experience: Demand Pressures, External Shocks, and Supply Constraints," Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, De Gruyter, vol. 13(2), pages 1-19, August.
    14. Bonato Leo, 2008. "Money and Inflation in the Islamic Republic of Iran," Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, De Gruyter, vol. 4(1), pages 41-58, January.
    15. Dizaji, S.F., 2011. "Analysis of domestic price and inflation determinants in Iran (as a developing oil-export based economy)," ISS Working Papers - General Series 530, International Institute of Social Studies of Erasmus University Rotterdam (ISS), The Hague.
    16. Somayeh Mardaneh, 2012. "Inflation Dynamics in a Dutch Disease Economy," Discussion Papers in Economics 12/25, Division of Economics, School of Business, University of Leicester.
    17. Bent Nielsen & Andrew Whitby, 2015. "A Joint Chow Test for Structural Instability," Econometrics, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 3(1), pages 156, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Apostolos Serletis, 2007. "Is There an East-West Split in North American Natural Gas Markets?," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Quantitative And Empirical Analysis Of Energy Markets, chapter 6, pages 59-72, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    2. Jim Malley & Hassan Molana, "undated". "The Permanent Income Hypothesis Revisited: Reconciling Evidence from Aggregate Data with the Representative Consumer Behaviour," ICMM Discussion Papers 48, Department of Economics University of Strathclyde.
    3. Douglas Fisher & Adrian R. Fleissig & Apostolos Serletis, 2006. "An Empirical Comparison of Flexible Demand System Functional Forms," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Money And The Economy, chapter 13, pages 247-277, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    4. Malley Jim & Molana Hassan, 2002. "Fiscal Policy And The Composition Of Private Consumption: Some Evidence From The U.A. And Canada," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(1), pages 139-158.
    5. Jim Malley & Hassan Molana, 1999. "The Permanent Income Hypothesis Revisited," Dundee Discussion Papers in Economics 105, Economic Studies, University of Dundee.
    6. Serletis, Apostolos, 1996. "International evidence on the cyclical behavior of inflation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 205-212, May.
    7. Esposti, Roberto, 2002. "Public agricultural R&D design and technological spill-ins: A dynamic model," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 693-717, July.
    8. Afxentiou, Panos & Serletis, Apostolos, 2000. "Output growth and the variability of exports and imports growth: international evidence from Granger causality tests," MPRA Paper 1750, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Efthymios Tsionas, 2001. "Regional Convergence and Common, Stochastic Long-run Trends: A Re-examination of the US Regional Data," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(8), pages 689-696.
    10. Serletis, Apostolos & Shahmoradi, Asghar, 2007. "Chaos, self-organized criticality, and SETAR nonlinearity: An analysis of purchasing power parity between Canada and the United States," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 1437-1444.
    11. Serletis, Apostolos & Gogas, Periklis, 2004. "Long-horizon regression tests of the theory of purchasing power parity," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(8), pages 1961-1985, August.
    12. W A Razzak, 2007. "A Perspective on Unit Root and Cointegration in Applied Macroeconomics," International Journal of Applied Econometrics and Quantitative Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 4(1), pages 77-102.
    13. Kyrtsou, Catherine & Malliaris, Anastasios G. & Serletis, Apostolos, 2009. "Energy sector pricing: On the role of neglected nonlinearity," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 492-502, May.
    14. Roberto ESPOSTI, 2000. "Public R&D Design and Technological Spill-Ins. A Dynamic Model," Working Papers 136, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali.
    15. Apostolos Serletis & Ricardo Rangel-Ruiz, 2007. "Testing for Common Features in North American Energy Markets," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Quantitative And Empirical Analysis Of Energy Markets, chapter 14, pages 172-187, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    16. Isabel Cortés-Jiménez & Manuel Artís, 2005. "The role of the tourism sector in economic development - Lessons from the Spanish experience," ERSA conference papers ersa05p488, European Regional Science Association.
    17. M. T. Alguacil & V. Orts, 2003. "Inward Foreign Direct Investment and Imports in Spain," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(3), pages 19-38.
    18. Jacint Balaguer & Manuel Cantavella-Jorda, 2004. "Structural change in exports and economic growth: cointegration and causality analysis for Spain (1961-2000)," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(5), pages 473-477.
    19. Kremers, Jeroen J M & Ericsson, Neil R & Dolado, Juan J, 1992. "The Power of Cointegration Tests," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 325-348, August.
    20. Neil R. Ericsson & James G. MacKinnon, 2002. "Distributions of error correction tests for cointegration," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 5(2), pages 285-318, June.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2002/205. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Akshay Modi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/imfffus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.