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A Model of Exchange Rate Regime Choice in the Transitional Economies of Central and Eastern Europe

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  • Mr. Vladimir Klyuev

Abstract

The paper develops a model of exchange rate regime choice centered on the trade-off between internal price stability and external competitiveness and allowing for institutional costs of altering exchange rate arrangements. The main implication of the model is a nonlinear relationship between the rate of inflation and the choice of regime for the next period. The model also suggests that a major inflationary shock-like the one to which all Central and Eastern European economies were subject when they allowed prices to be determined by the market-should give rise to a tightening of the exchange rate regime, followed by a gradual introduction of more flexibility as inflation subsides. A series of regressions on a sample of 13 Central and Eastern European economies yield results consistent with the hypothesis.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Vladimir Klyuev, 2001. "A Model of Exchange Rate Regime Choice in the Transitional Economies of Central and Eastern Europe," IMF Working Papers 2001/140, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2001/140
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    Cited by:

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    2. Christian Fahrholz, 2003. "Strategic Exchange-Rate Policy of Accession Countries in ERM II," Eastward Enlargement of the Euro-zone Working Papers wp14, Free University Berlin, Jean Monnet Centre of Excellence, revised 01 Apr 2003.
    3. Christian H. Fahrholz, 2007. "Bargaining for Costs of Convergence in the Exchange-Rate Mechanism II," Journal of Theoretical Politics, , vol. 19(2), pages 193-214, April.

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