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Real Exchange Rate Response to Capital Flows in Mexico: An Empirical Analysis

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  • Mr. Marcelo P. Dabós
  • Mr. V. Hugo Juan-Ramon

Abstract

This study shows that in Mexico there is a long-run relationship between the real exchange rate and capital inflows, the external terms of trade, and productivity in the manufacturing sector. A once-and-for-all unit increase in the ratio of quarterly capital inflow to quarterly (annualized) GDP causes a long-run real appreciation of the peso of about 12 percent. The analysis also reveals a structural break in 1995, which coincides with the change to a floating exchange rate arrangement, and an overvaluation of the peso in real terms on the eve of the end–1994 crisis in the range of 12 to 25 percent.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Marcelo P. Dabós & Mr. V. Hugo Juan-Ramon, 2000. "Real Exchange Rate Response to Capital Flows in Mexico: An Empirical Analysis," IMF Working Papers 2000/108, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2000/108
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    Cited by:

    1. Ibarra, Carlos A., 2011. "Capital Flows and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Mexico," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 39(12), pages 2080-2090.
    2. Jozef M. Van Brabant, 2001. "Exchange-rate policy in eastern Europe and EU integration," BNL Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 54(218), pages 219-248.
    3. Nikolas A. Müller-Plantenberg, 2017. "Boom-and-bust Cycles, External Imbalances and the Real Exchange Rate," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(1), pages 56-87, January.
    4. Omotosho, Babatunde S., 2012. "Endogenous Structural Breaks and Real Exchange Rate Determination in Nigeria since Interbank Foreign Exchange Market (IFEM)," MPRA Paper 98306, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Pami Dua & Partha Sen, 2006. "Capital Flow Volatility And Exchange Rates-- The Case Of India," Working papers 144, Centre for Development Economics, Delhi School of Economics.
    6. Müller-Plantenberg, Nikolas, 2012. "Boom-and-bust cycles marked by capital inflows, current account deterioration and a rise and fall of the real exchange rate," Working Papers in Economic Theory 2012/10, Universidad Autónoma de Madrid (Spain), Department of Economic Analysis (Economic Theory and Economic History).
    7. International Monetary Fund, 2004. "Mexico: Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 2004/250, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Carlos A. Ibarra, 2016. "Investment, asset market, and the relative unit labor cost in Mexico," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 49(4), pages 339-364, November.
    9. Evan C. Tanner, 2018. "The Algebraic Galaxy of Simple Macroeconomic Models: A Hitchhiker’s Guide," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 29(1), pages 177-209, February.
    10. Jozef M. Van Brabant, 2001. "Exchange-rate policy in eastern Europe and EU integration," Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 54(218), pages 219-248.
    11. O. P. C. Muhammed Rafi & M. Ramachandran, 2018. "Capital flows and exchange rate volatility: experience of emerging economies," Indian Economic Review, Springer, vol. 53(1), pages 183-205, December.

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