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Capital Flow Volatility And Exchange Rates-- The Case Of India

Author

Listed:
  • Pami Dua

    (Delhi School of Economics)

  • Partha Sen

    (Delhi School of Economics)

Abstract

This paper examines the relationship between the real exchange rate, level of capital flows, volatility of the flows, fiscal and monetary policy indicators and the current account surplus for the Indian economy for the period 1993Q2 to 2004Q1. The estimations indicate that the variables are cointegrated and each granger causes the real exchange rate. The generalized variance decompositions show that determinants of the real exchange rate, in descending order of importance include net capital inflows and their volatility (jointly), government expenditure, current account surplus and the money supply. A preliminary analysis suggests that a similar analysis can be performed for the foreign exchange reserves held by the RBI.

Suggested Citation

  • Pami Dua & Partha Sen, 2006. "Capital Flow Volatility And Exchange Rates-- The Case Of India," Working papers 144, Centre for Development Economics, Delhi School of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:cde:cdewps:144
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Chi, Tsung-Li & Liu, Hung-Tsen & Chang, Chia-Chien, 2023. "Hedging performance using google Trends–Evidence from the indian forex options market," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 107-123.
    2. Peter Nuhu & Dramani Bukari, 2021. "An analysis of export, import and exchange rate oscillation in Ghana," International Journal of Economic Policy Studies, Springer, vol. 15(2), pages 301-327, September.
    3. Partha Sen, 2007. "Capital inflows, financial repression, and macroeconomic policy in India since the reforms," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 23(2), pages 292-310, Summer.
    4. Benzid, Lamia & Bakari, Sayef, 2021. "Modeling the Asymmetric Relationship between the Covid-19 and the U.S Dollar Exchange Rate: an Empirical Analysis via the NARDL Approach," MPRA Paper 105566, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Abdul Rashid & Fazal Husain, 2013. "Capital Inflows, Inflation, and the Exchange Rate Volatility- An Investigation for Linear and Nonlinear Causal Linkages," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 52(3), pages 183-206.
    6. Anita Mirchandani, 2013. "Analysis of Macroeconomic Determinants of Exchange Rate Volatility in India," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 3(1), pages 172-179.
    7. N.R. Bhanumurthy & Sukanya Bose & Swayamsiddha Panda, 2014. "Modelling India’s External Sector: Review and Some Empirics," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 8(4), pages 457-493, November.
    8. Somesh Kumar Mathur & Surendra Babu, 2014. "Modelling & Forecasting of Re/$ Exchange rate – An empirical analysis," 2nd International Conference on Energy, Regional Integration and Socio-Economic Development 7741, EcoMod.
    9. Abdul Rishad & Sanjeev Gupta & Akhil Sharma, 2021. "Official Intervention and Exchange Rate Determination: Evidence from India," Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, Emerging Markets Forum, vol. 13(3), pages 357-379, September.
    10. Muhammad Ejaz & Muhammad Shahzad & Rana Ejaz Ali Khan, 2021. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Capital Inflows in Developing Economies," Asian Development Policy Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 9(1), pages 24-32, March.
    11. Patricia Lindelwa Makoni, 2020. "Foreign Portfolio Investments, Exchange Rates and Capital Openness: A Panel Data Approach," International Journal of Economics & Business Administration (IJEBA), International Journal of Economics & Business Administration (IJEBA), vol. 0(2), pages 100-113.
    12. Bilesha B. Weeraratne, 2011. "Solving the Forward Discount Bias Puzzle in a Small Open Developing Economy," South Asia Economic Journal, Institute of Policy Studies of Sri Lanka, vol. 12(1), pages 61-89, March.
    13. Narayan Sethi, 2012. "Inflows and their Macroeconomic Impact in India a VAR Analysis," Romanian Economic Journal, Department of International Business and Economics from the Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest, vol. 15(45), pages 93-142, December.
    14. Saidia Jeelani & Joity Tomar & Tapas Das & Seshanwita Das, 2019. "Testing Structural Break in the Relationship Between Exchange Rate and Macroeconomic Variables," Vision, , vol. 23(4), pages 442-453, December.
    15. Bhanumurthy, N.R. & Bose, Sukanya & Panda, Swayamsiddha, 2014. "Modeling India's External Sector: Review and Some Empirics," Working Papers 14/138, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    real exchange rate; capital flows; foreign exchange reserves; cointegration;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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