IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/imf/imfwpa/1999-151.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Bank Rating Changes and Bank Stock Returns—Puzzling Evidence from the Emerging Markets

Author

Listed:
  • Mr. Anthony J. Richards
  • Mr. David Deddouche

Abstract

This paper examines the performance of emerging market bank stocks around the time of rating changes by major international agencies. The data suggest that downgrades on average have followed periods of negative cumulative abnormal returns for banks, although upgrades have not followed periods of positive returns. More important, stock prices either do not respond to rating changes or respond in the opposite direction to what would be expected if announcements conveyed value-relevant information. The paper concludes that there are limits to the extent that supervisors in emerging markets can rely on market participants to monitor the safety and soundness of banks.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Anthony J. Richards & Mr. David Deddouche, 1999. "Bank Rating Changes and Bank Stock Returns—Puzzling Evidence from the Emerging Markets," IMF Working Papers 1999/151, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:1999/151
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=3312
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Crabbe, Leland & Post, Mitchell A, 1994. "The Effect of a Rating Downgrade on Outstanding Commercial Paper," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(1), pages 39-56, March.
    2. Berger, Allen N & Davies, Sally M & Flannery, Mark J, 2000. "Comparing Market and Supervisory Assessments of Bank Performance: Who Knows What When?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 32(3), pages 641-667, August.
    3. Hand, John R M & Holthausen, Robert W & Leftwich, Richard W, 1992. "The Effect of Bond Rating Agency Announcements on Bond and Stock Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 733-752, June.
    4. Flannery, Mark J & Sorescu, Sorin M, 1996. "Evidence of Bank Market Discipline in Subordinated Debenture Yields: 1983-1991," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(4), pages 1347-1377, September.
    5. Allen Berger & Sally Davies, 1998. "The Information Content of Bank Examinations," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 14(2), pages 117-144, October.
    6. Holthausen, Robert W. & Leftwich, Richard W., 1986. "The effect of bond rating changes on common stock prices," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 57-89, September.
    7. Pinches, George E & Singleton, J Clay, 1978. "The Adjustment of Stock Prices to Bond Rating Changes," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 33(1), pages 29-44, March.
    8. Stephen Cross & Katerina Simons, 1991. "Do capital markets predict problems in large commercial banks?," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue May, pages 51-56.
    9. Billett, Matthew T. & Garfinkel, Jon A. & O'Neal, Edward S., 1998. "The cost of market versus regulatory discipline in banking," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(3), pages 333-358, June.
    10. A. Craig MacKinlay, 1997. "Event Studies in Economics and Finance," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 35(1), pages 13-39, March.
    11. Hannan, Timothy H & Hanweck, Gerald A, 1988. "Bank Insolvency Risk and the Market for Large Certificates of Deposit," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 20(2), pages 203-211, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Seung Han & Yoon Shin & Walter Reinhart & William Moore, 2009. "Market Segmentation Effects in Corporate Credit Rating Changes: The Case of Emerging Markets," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 35(2), pages 141-166, April.
    2. Demirgüç-Kunt, AslI & Detragiache, Enrica & Tressel, Thierry, 2008. "Banking on the principles: Compliance with Basel Core Principles and bank soundness," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 511-542, October.
    3. Kladakis, George & Skouralis, Alexandros, 2024. "Credit rating downgrades and systemic risk," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    4. Caprio, Gerard & Honohan, Patrick, 2004. "Can the unsophisticated market provide discipline?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3364, The World Bank.
    5. Patrycja Chodnicka – Jaworska & Piotr Jaworski, 2019. "The Chinese and The Big Three Credit Rating Agencies – their impact on stock prices," Faculty of Management Working Paper Series 22019, University of Warsaw, Faculty of Management.
    6. Roman Kräussl, 2001. "Sovereign ratings and their impact on recent financial crises," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 7(2), pages 268-269, May.
    7. Graciela Kaminsky & Sergio L. Schmukler, 2002. "Emerging Market Instability: Do Sovereign Ratings Affect Country Risk and Stock Returns?," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 16(2), pages 171-195, August.
    8. Pukthuanthong-Le, Kuntara & Elayan, Fayez A. & Rose, Lawrence C., 2007. "Equity and debt market responses to sovereign credit ratings announcement," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 47-83.
    9. Kenjegaliev, Amangeldi & Duygun, Meryem & Mamedshakhova, Djamila, 2016. "Do rating grades convey important information: German evidence?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 334-344.
    10. Wojewodzki, Michal & Boateng, Agyenim & Brahma, Sanjukta, 2020. "Credit rating, banks' capital structure and speed of adjustment: A cross-country analysis," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    11. Bremer, Marc & Pettway, Richard H., 2002. "Information and the market's perceptions of Japanese bank risk: Regulation, environment, and disclosure," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 119-139, April.
    12. Flávia Cruz de Souza Murcia & Fernando Dal-Ri Murcia & José Alonso Borba, 2013. "The Informational Content of Credit Ratings in Brazil: An Event Study," Brazilian Review of Finance, Brazilian Society of Finance, vol. 11(4), pages 503-526.
    13. Hesam Aldin SHAHRIVAR & Nwin Anefo Fru ASABA, 2013. "Assessment of the Impact of Trade Partner’s Cross-Country Sovereign Rating on the Financial Market of Selected Emerging Market Economies," Ege Academic Review, Ege University Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, vol. 13(2), pages 137-150.
    14. Wolfgang Gerstenberger & Joachim Jungfer & Heinz Schmalholz, 2002. "Standortbedingungen in Polen, Tschechien und Ungarn und die Position Sachsens im Standortwettbewerb : Gutachten im Auftrag der Wirtschaftsförderung Sachsen GmbH," ifo Dresden Studien, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 33, May.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bremer, Marc & Pettway, Richard H., 2002. "Information and the market's perceptions of Japanese bank risk: Regulation, environment, and disclosure," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 119-139, April.
    2. Creighton, Adam & Gower, Luke & Richards, Anthony J., 2007. "The impact of rating changes in Australian financial markets," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 1-17, January.
    3. Reint Gropp & Anthony J. Richards, 2001. "Rating Agency Actions and the Pricing of Debt and Equity of European Banks: What Can we Infer About Private Sector Monitoring of Bank Soundness?," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 30(3), pages 373-398, November.
    4. R. Alton Gilbert & Andrew P. Meyer & Mark D. Vaughan, 2006. "Can feedback from the jumbo CD market improve bank surveillance?," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, vol. 92(Spr), pages 135-175.
    5. Allen N. Berger & Margaret K. Kyle & Joseph M. Scalise, 2001. "Did US Bank Supervisors Get Tougher during the Credit Crunch? Did They Get Easier during the Banking Boom? Did It Matter to Bank Lending?," NBER Chapters, in: Prudential Supervision: What Works and What Doesn't, pages 301-356, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Allen Berger & Sally Davies, 1998. "The Information Content of Bank Examinations," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 14(2), pages 117-144, October.
    7. Imbierowicz, Björn & Wahrenburg, Mark, 2013. "Wealth transfer effects between stockholders and bondholders," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 23-43.
    8. Marc J. K. De Ceuster & Nancy Masschelein, 2003. "Regulating Banks through Market Discipline: A Survey of the Issues," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(5), pages 749-766, December.
    9. Covitz, Daniel M. & Harrison, Paul, 2004. "Do banks time bond issuance to trigger disclosure, due diligence, and investor scrutiny?," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 299-323, July.
    10. Drago, Danilo & Gallo, Raffaele, 2016. "The impact and the spillover effect of a sovereign rating announcement on the euro area CDS market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 264-286.
    11. Berger, Allen N & Davies, Sally M & Flannery, Mark J, 2000. "Comparing Market and Supervisory Assessments of Bank Performance: Who Knows What When?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 32(3), pages 641-667, August.
    12. Douglas D. Evanoff & Larry D. Wall, 2000. "Subordinated debt and bank capital reform," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2000-24, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    13. Furfine, Craig H, 2001. "Banks as Monitors of Other Banks: Evidence from the Overnight Federal Funds Market," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 74(1), pages 33-57, January.
    14. Reint Gropp & Anthony J. Richards, 2001. "Rating Agency Actions and the Pricing of Debt and Equity of European Banks: What Can we Infer About Private Sector Monitoring of Bank Soundness?," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 30(3), pages 373-398, November.
    15. Krishna Reddy & Rudi Bosman & Nawazish Mirza, 2019. "Impact Of Credit Ratings On Stock Returns," Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, Bank Indonesia, vol. 21(3), pages 343-366, January.
    16. Fathi Nakai & Tarek Chebbi, 2023. "The informational content of sovereign credit rating: another look," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 24(5), pages 353-373, September.
    17. Whitledge, Matthew D. & Winters, Drew B., 2015. "The price of liquidity: CD rates charged by money market funds," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 104-114.
    18. Kaveri Krishnan & Sankarshan Basu & Ashok Thampy, 2020. "Has the Global Financial Crisis Changed the Market Response to Credit Ratings? Evidence from an Emerging Market," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 19(1), pages 7-32, April.
    19. Billett, Matthew T. & Garfinkel, Jon A. & O'Neal, Edward S., 1998. "The cost of market versus regulatory discipline in banking," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(3), pages 333-358, June.
    20. Afik, Zvika & Feinstein, Itai & Galil, Koresh, 2014. "The (un)informative value of credit rating announcements in small markets," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 14(C), pages 66-80.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:1999/151. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Akshay Modi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/imfffus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.