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Cyclical Fluctuations in Brazil's Real Exchange Rate: The Role of Domestic and External Factors

Author

Listed:
  • Mr. Willy A Hoffmaister
  • Mr. Carlos I. Medeiros
  • Pierre-Richard Agénor

Abstract

This paper examines the effects of capital inflows and domestic factors on Brazil’s real exchange rate. It describes the analytical framework, and then estimates a near-VAR model linking capital flows, interest rate differentials, government spending, money-base velocity, and the temporary component of the real exchange rate (TCRER). Generalized variance decompositions indicate that world interest rate shocks largely explain medium-term fluctuations in capital flows and the TCRER. Generalized impulse response functions show that a reduction in the world interest rate (and, to a lesser extent, an increase in government spending) have significant effects on the TCRER and capital flows.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Willy A Hoffmaister & Mr. Carlos I. Medeiros & Pierre-Richard Agénor, 1997. "Cyclical Fluctuations in Brazil's Real Exchange Rate: The Role of Domestic and External Factors," IMF Working Papers 1997/128, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:1997/128
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Andrea Fracasso, 2006. "The role of foreign and domestic factors in the evolution of the Brazilian EMBI spread and debt dynamics," IHEID Working Papers 22-2007, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies, revised Jul 2007.
    2. MacDonald, Ronald & Marsh, Ian W., 2004. "Currency spillovers and tri-polarity: a simultaneous model of the US dollar, German mark and Japanese yen," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 99-111, February.
    3. Mkenda, Beatrice Kalinda, 2001. "Long-run and Short-run Determinants of the Real Exchange Rate in Zambia," Working Papers in Economics 40, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics.
    4. Valdes, Constanza & Hjort, Kim & Seeley, Ralph, 2016. "Brazil’s Changing Macroeconomic Conditions: Impacts on Agriculture," 2016 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Boston, Massachusetts 236207, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    5. Eliana Cardoso & Ilan Goldfajn, 1998. "Capital Flows to Brazil: The Endogeneity of Capital Controls," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(1), pages 161-202, March.
    6. Pasricha, Gurnain Kaur & Falagiarda, Matteo & Bijsterbosch, Martin & Aizenman, Joshua, 2018. "Domestic and multilateral effects of capital controls in emerging markets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 48-58.
    7. Thierry Buchs, 2005. "Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate In Brazil Estimation And Policy Implications," International Trade 0502013, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Antonio Carlos De Jesus Assumpção & Gabriel Caldas Montes, 2018. "Determinantes Dos Investimentos Diretos Estrangeiros Nas Economias Desenvolvidas E Em Desenvolvimento: Novas Evidências Empíricas," Anais do XLIV Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 44th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 39, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    9. Griffith-Jones, Stephany & Montes, Manuel F. & Nasution, Anwar (ed.), 2001. "Short-Term Capital Flows and Economic Crises," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198296867.

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