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Philippines: Selected Issues

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  • International Monetary Fund

Abstract

This Selected Issues paper examines the interaction between real and financial cycles in the Philippines and their relationship to the global financial cycle. It finds that the surge in capital inflows between 2010 and mid-2013 can largely be explained by global financial factors such as global risk aversion, with exchange rate expectations and domestic fundamentals playing a secondary role. Moreover, local bond yields and retail bank rates seem to be driven by the same global factors and the U.S. term premiums. The paper suggests that the quantitative impact of VIX shocks on domestic demand via capital flows and asset repricing and of changes in the U.S. 10-year Treasury bond yields on bank credit and investment, are significant.

Suggested Citation

  • International Monetary Fund, 2015. "Philippines: Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 2015/247, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfscr:2015/247
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Llanto, Gilberto M. & Navarro, Adoracion M., 2014. "Financing Infrastructure in the Philippines: Fiscal Landscape and Resources Mobilization," Discussion Papers DP 2014-01, Philippine Institute for Development Studies.
    2. repec:imf:imfsdn:15/8 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Jean Arcand & Enrico Berkes & Ugo Panizza, 2015. "Too much finance?," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 20(2), pages 105-148, June.
    4. Shinozaki, Shigehiro, 2014. "Capital Market Financing for SMEs: A Growing Need in Emerging Asia," Working Papers on Regional Economic Integration 121, Asian Development Bank.
    5. International Monetary Fund, 2003. "Managing Risks in Financial Market Development: The Role of Sequencing," IMF Working Papers 2003/116, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Ms. Ratna Sahay & Mr. Martin Cihak & Mr. Papa M N'Diaye & Mr. Adolfo Barajas & Ms. Diana B Ayala Pena & Ran Bi & Miss Yuan Gao & Ms. Annette J Kyobe & Lam Nguyen & Christian Saborowski & Katsiaryna Sv, 2015. "Rethinking Financial Deepening: Stability and Growth in Emerging Markets," IMF Staff Discussion Notes 2015/008, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Miguel A. Segoviano & Bradley Jones & Peter Lindner & Johannes Blankenheim, 2015. "Securitization: The Road Ahead," IMF Staff Discussion Notes 2015/001, International Monetary Fund.
    8. International Monetary Fund, 2014. "Philippines: Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 2014/246, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Ms. Era Dabla-Norris & Mr. Narapong Srivisal, 2013. "Revisiting the Link Between Finance and Macroeconomic Volatility," IMF Working Papers 2013/029, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Miguel A. Segoviano & Bradley Jones & Peter Lindner & Johannes Blankenheim, 2015. "Securitization; The Road Ahead," IMF Staff Discussion Notes 15/01, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Ratna Sahay & Martin Cihak & Papa M N'Diaye & Adolfo Barajas & Diana B Ayala Pena & Ran Bi & Yuan Gao & Annette J Kyobe & Lam Nguyen & Christian Saborowski & Katsiaryna Svirydzenka & Seyed Reza Yousef, 2015. "Rethinking Financial Deepening; Stability and Growth in Emerging Markets," IMF Staff Discussion Notes 15/08, International Monetary Fund.
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    Cited by:

    1. Serhan Cevik, 2019. "Anchor me: the benefits and challenges of fiscal responsibility," Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, The Crawford School, The Australian National University, vol. 33(1), pages 33-47, May.
    2. Mercado, Rogelio, 2020. "Are capital inflows expansionary or contractionary in the Philippines?," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).

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