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Economic growth, volatility and their interaction: What’s the role of finance?

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  • Silva, Sergio H.R. da
  • Tabak, Benjamin M.
  • Cajueiro, Daniel O.
  • Fazio, Dimas M.

Abstract

This paper examines the relation between financial depth and the interaction of economic growth and its volatility. We use a sample of 52 countries for the period 1980–2011, and our main finding is that, at moderate levels of financial depth, further deepening increases the ratio of average growth to volatility; however, as financial depth increases, this relation reverts, and the rise in volatility overcomes that of economic growth. This result is obtained both in the medium and long run; however, the peak of the relation seems to be lower in the medium run (around 40%–55% of domestic credit/GDP) than in the long run (around 75%–99%). This suggests that increasing the level of domestic credit may intensify relative volatility in the medium term, but still raise relative long-term growth before the long-run threshold is achieved.

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  • Silva, Sergio H.R. da & Tabak, Benjamin M. & Cajueiro, Daniel O. & Fazio, Dimas M., 2017. "Economic growth, volatility and their interaction: What’s the role of finance?," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 433-444.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecosys:v:41:y:2017:i:3:p:433-444
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecosys.2016.10.008
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial development; Growth; Volatility; Non-linearity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

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