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Europe on the Brink

Author

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  • Peter Boone

    (Peterson Institute for International Economics)

  • Simon Johnson

    (Peterson Institute for International Economics)

Abstract

Europe’s efforts to stabilize its finances are failing, and the region needs to prepare for widespread restructuring of sovereign and bank debt. Peter Boone and Simon Johnson argue that Europe’s financial system has relied on a policy of protecting creditors from default and has thus spread pervasive moral hazard—a presumption by creditors that they will not take losses on their loans to Greece and other ailing countries. The authors argue that this situation is no longer tenable and examine three possible scenarios for the coming months as the sovereign debt crisis evolves. Under the first scenario, the euro area would try to reassert its commitment to avoid defaults and inflation. This continuation of the moral hazard regime would require severe austerity for Greece and other countries on the periphery of the euro area. The second scenario involves elimination of the moral hazard regime. The euro area would admit that some sovereigns have too much debt. A series of debt restructurings would follow. The final scenario would be for policymakers to continue to contradict themselves by promising selective defaults or restructurings of some countries’ debts while maintaining that they can ensure the stability of the rest of the euro area. But the authors argue that it is an illusion to believe that selective restructuring would not introduce contagion. Such an approach would result in panic, massive capital flight, and disorderly defaults. The ensuing chaos would in turn lead to a negatively charged political atmosphere that would make consensus nearly impossible.

Suggested Citation

  • Peter Boone & Simon Johnson, 2011. "Europe on the Brink," Policy Briefs PB11-13, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:iie:pbrief:pb11-13
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hans-Werner Sinn & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2012. "Target loans, current account balances and capital flows: the ECB’s rescue facility," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 19(4), pages 468-508, August.
    2. Buiter, Willem & Sibert, Anne, 2005. "How the Eurosystem?s Treatment of Collateral in its Open Market Operations Weakens Fiscal Discipline in the Eurozone (and what," CEPR Discussion Papers 5387, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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    Cited by:

    1. Myriam García-Olalla & Manuel Luna, 2021. "Market reaction to supranational banking supervision in Europe: Do firm- and country-specific factors matter?," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 48(4), pages 947-975, November.
    2. Torój, Andrzej & Bednarek, Elżbieta & Bęza-Bojanowska, Joanna & Osińska, Joanna & Waćko, Katarzyna & Witkowski, Dariusz, 2012. "EMU: the (post-)crisis perspective. Literature survey and implications for the euro-candidates," MF Working Papers 12, Ministry of Finance in Poland, revised 06 Mar 2012.
    3. Kibritçioğlu, Aykut, 2011. "Avro Bölgesi Ülkelerindeki Güncel Borç Krizi [Current Sovereign Debt Crisis in Eurozone Countries]," MPRA Paper 33528, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 22 Aug 2011.

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