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What Kind of Landing for the Chinese Economy?

Author

Listed:
  • Morris Goldstein

    (Peterson Institute for International Economics)

  • Nicholas R. Lardy

    (Peterson Institute for International Economics)

Abstract

Rarely has the outlook for the Chinese economy been so contested. Th e fi nancial press widely quotes three alternative perspectives on the short- and medium-term outlook. One school argues that the Chinese government's recent eff orts to rein in overly rapid growth are working and that the economy is now on a glide path to what is referred to as a soft landing. While "soft landing" is usually not fully defi ned, its chief feature in this case is that Chinese economic growth slows modestly from its current pace of 9 to 10 percent to around 8 percent and that the rate of job creation does not slow enough to constitute a major political challenge for the regime. At the other end of the spectrum is the hard landing school, which argues that the authorities to date have not tightened suffi ciently, that loan and investment growth remain excessive, and that the authorities soon will be forced to take more drastic action that will trigger a sharp correction. Finally, the no landing school argues that China's eff orts to slow growth modestly are misguided since the economy was not overheating in 2003 and early 2004. In this view, China is in the early stages of a secular boom that has several additional years to run.

Suggested Citation

  • Morris Goldstein & Nicholas R. Lardy, 2004. "What Kind of Landing for the Chinese Economy?," Policy Briefs PB04-07, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:iie:pbrief:pb04-07
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    File URL: https://www.piie.com/publications/policy-briefs/what-kind-landing-chinese-economy
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. World Bank, 2004. "World Development Indicators 2004," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 13890.
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    Cited by:

    1. Eswar Prasad & Shang-Jin Wei, 2007. "The Chinese Approach to Capital Inflows: Patterns and Possible Explanations," NBER Chapters, in: Capital Controls and Capital Flows in Emerging Economies: Policies, Practices, and Consequences, pages 421-480, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Qin, Duo & Cagas, Marie Anne & Quising, Pilipinas & He, Xin-Hua, 2006. "How much does investment drive economic growth in China?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 28(7), pages 751-774, October.
    3. Maurice Obstfeld, 2007. "The Renminbi's Dollar Peg at the Crossroads," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 25(S1), pages 29-56, December.
    4. Lindbeck, Assar, 2006. "Economic-Social Interaction during China’s Transition," Working Paper Series 680, Research Institute of Industrial Economics.
    5. Eswar S. Prasad & Raghuram G. Rajan, 2006. "Modernizing China's Growth Paradigm," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(2), pages 331-336, May.
    6. Prasad, Eswar S., 2009. "Is the Chinese growth miracle built to last?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 103-123, March.
    7. Qin, Duo & Song, Haiyan, 2009. "Sources of investment inefficiency: The case of fixed-asset investment in China," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 94-105, September.
    8. Lee Branstetter & C. Fritz Foley, 2010. "Facts and Fallacies about US FDI in China," NBER Chapters, in: China's Growing Role in World Trade, pages 513-539, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Zhao, Xingrong & Zhang, Xi & Shao, Shuai, 2016. "Decoupling CO2 emissions and industrial growth in China over 1993–2013: The role of investment," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 275-292.
    10. Naphon Phumma, 2014. "Neoliberalism and the global imbalances: the neo-Gramscian approach," Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, University of Utah 2014_04, University of Utah, Department of Economics.
    11. Tang, Ya & Xu, Jianguo & Zhang, Xun, 2017. "China's investment and rate of return on capital revisited," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 12-25.
    12. Marvin Goodfriend & Eswar Prasad, 2009. "A Framework for Independent Monetary Policy in China," Chapters, in: Gill Hammond & Ravi Kanbur & Eswar Prasad (ed.), Monetary Policy Frameworks for Emerging Markets, chapter 8, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    13. Marvin Goodfriend & Eswar Prasad, 2006. "Monetary policy implementation in China," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Monetary policy in Asia: approaches and implementation, volume 31, pages 25-39, Bank for International Settlements.
    14. Qin, Duo & Cagas, Marie Anne & Quising, Pilipinas & He, Xin-Hua, 2006. "How much does investment drive economic growth in China?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 28(7), pages 751-774, October.
    15. Michael Dooley & Peter Garber, 2005. "Is It 1958 or 1968? Three Notes on the Longevity of the Revived Bretton Woods System," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 36(1), pages 147-210.
    16. Morris Goldstein & Nicholas R. Lardy, 2005. "China's Role in the Revived Bretton Woods System: A Case of Mistaken Identity," Working Paper Series WP05-2, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    17. Nouriel Roubini, 2006. "The BW 2 regime: an unstable disequilibrium bound to unravel," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 3(3), pages 303-332, December.
    18. World Bank, 2006. "Foreign Capital Utilization in China : Prospects and Future Strategy," World Bank Publications - Reports 19623, The World Bank Group.
    19. repec:ilo:ilowps:391320 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Nouriel Roubini, 2007. "Why China Should Abandon Its Dollar Peg," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(1), pages 71-89, March.

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