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Redistribution via VAT and cash transfers: an assessment in four low and middle income countries

Author

Listed:
  • Tom Harris

    (Institute for Fiscal Studies and Institute for Fiscal Studies)

  • David Phillips

    (Institute for Fiscal Studies and Institute for Fiscal Studies)

  • Ross Warwick

    (Institute for Fiscal Studies and Institute for Fiscal Studies)

  • Maya Goldman

    (Institute for Fiscal Studies)

  • Jon Jellema

    (Institute for Fiscal Studies)

  • Karolina Goraus

    (Institute for Fiscal Studies)

  • Gabriela Inchauste

    (Institute for Fiscal Studies)

Abstract

As in high-income countries, reduced rates of VAT and VAT exemptions (“preferential VAT rates”) are a common feature of indirect tax systems in LMICs. Many of the goods and services that are granted preferential rates – such as foodstuffs and kerosene – seem likely to receive such treatment on the grounds that they provide a means for the government to indirectly target poorer households, for whom such expenditures may take up a large proportion of their total budget. We use microsimulation methods to estimate the impact of preferential VAT rates in four LMIC countries, considering their effect on revenues, poverty, inequality, and across the consumption distribution. We consider whether other policy tools might be better suited for the pursuit of distributional objectives by estimating the impact of existing cash transfer schemes and a hypothetical scenario where the revenue raised from broadening the VAT base is used to fund a Universal Basic Income (UBI) in each country. We find that although preferential VAT rates reduce poverty, they are not well targeted towards poor households overall. Existing cash transfer schemes are better targeted but would not provide a suitable means of compensation for a broader VAT base given issues related to coverage and targeting mechanisms. Despite being completely untargeted, a UBI funded by the revenue gains from a broader VAT base would create large net gains for poor households and reduce inequality and most measures of extreme poverty in each of the countries studied – even if only 75% of the additional VAT revenue was disbursed as UBI payments. This is the first draft of a paper examining the distributional impacts of VAT exemptions and reduced rates and direct cash (and near-cash) transfer schemes in a series of low and middle income (LMIC) countries. All results presented are preliminary; it is being shared in order to elicit comments and provide early sight of findings we consider robust. Figure 5.1 from the working paper - The distributional impact of a implementing a uniform VAT and using 100% of the revenue gain to fund a UBI in four LMICs

Suggested Citation

  • Tom Harris & David Phillips & Ross Warwick & Maya Goldman & Jon Jellema & Karolina Goraus & Gabriela Inchauste, 2018. "Redistribution via VAT and cash transfers: an assessment in four low and middle income countries," IFS Working Papers W18/11, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    • Handle: RePEc:ifs:ifsewp:18/11
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. (IFS), Institute for Fiscal Studies & Mirrlees, James (ed.), 2011. "Tax By Design: The Mirrlees Review," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199553747.
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    Cited by:

    1. Bachas, Pierre & Gadenne, Lucie & Jensen, Anders, 2020. "Informality, Consumption Taxes and Redistribution," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 1277, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    2. Evans Tindana Awuni & Daniele Malerba & Babette Never, 2023. "Understanding Vulnerability to Poverty, COVID-19’s Effects, and Implications for Social Protection: Insights from Ghana," Progress in Development Studies, , vol. 23(3), pages 246-274, July.
    3. World Bank, 2019. "World Development Report 2019 [Rapport sur le développement dans le monde 2019]," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 30435.
    4. Haydeeliz Carrasco & Hamidou Jawara & Moritz Meyer, 2022. "The Effects Of Fiscal Policy On Inequality And Poverty In The Gambia," Commitment to Equity (CEQ) Working Paper Series 117, Tulane University, Department of Economics.
    5. Rebone Gcabo & Boitumelo Moche & Wynnona Steyn & Boikhutso Moahlodi & Jukka Pirttilä & Michael Noble & Gemma Wright & Helen Barnes & Faith Masekesa, 2019. "Modelling value-added tax (VAT) in South Africa: Assessing the distributional impact of the recent increase in the VAT rate and options for redress through the benefits system," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2019-13, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D31 - Microeconomics - - Distribution - - - Personal Income and Wealth Distribution
    • H22 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Incidence
    • H53 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Government Expenditures and Welfare Programs
    • I38 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Government Programs; Provision and Effects of Welfare Programs

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