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Voting under the threat of secession: accommodation vs. repression

Author

Listed:
  • Vincent Anesi

    (University of Nottingham)

  • Philippe De Donder

    (Toulouse School of Economics)

Abstract

We build a simple model of secession crises where a majority of voters may wish to accommodate the minority in order to prevent a secession attempt. We first show the existence of a majority voting equilibrium, where the median voter is decisive and most prefers a government’s type that is biased in favor of the minority. We then propose a measure of the secession risk at equilibrium and perform the comparative static analysis of the equilibrium policy location and of the secession risk with respect to several parameters: the cultural distinctiveness of the two regions, the relative weight attached by voters to economic (centripetal) -as opposed to (centrifugal) ideological- factors, the relative size of the minority region, the (exogenous) probability that a secession attempt is successful, and the intra-regional heterogeneity of preferences.

Suggested Citation

  • Vincent Anesi & Philippe De Donder, 2011. "Voting under the threat of secession: accommodation vs. repression," Working Papers 2011/40, Institut d'Economia de Barcelona (IEB).
  • Handle: RePEc:ieb:wpaper:doc2011-40
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Rodríguez-Pose, Andrés & Stermšek, Marko, 2014. "The Economics of Secession ? Analysing the economic impact of the collapse of the former Yugoslavia," CEPR Discussion Papers 10134, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Roland Vaubel, 2013. "Secession in the European Union," Economic Affairs, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(3), pages 288-302, October.
    3. Alexander Libman, 2012. "Sub-national political regimes and asymmetric fiscal decentralization," Constitutional Political Economy, Springer, vol. 23(4), pages 302-336, December.
    4. Ehrke, Jürgen, 2012. "How to assist separatists in breaking up a country... or, rather, not: The role of decentralization and development assistance," MPRA Paper 44045, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Majority voting; secession risk; cultural distinctiveness; conflict; overlapping regional preferences;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions

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