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Sobre los diferenciales y clasificaciones soberanos de economías emergentes

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  • Andrew Powell
  • Juan F. Martinez S.

Abstract

En este trabajo se analizan modelos alternativos de clasificación soberana emergente. Aunque un número pequeño de indicadores económicos fundamentales explica las clasificaciones de manera razonablemente precisa, las variaciones de esos indicadores económicos fundamentales se pueden explicar, en sí mismas, por un puñado de factores mundiales. Por otro lado, hay que tomar en cuenta además las variables financieras mundiales relacionadas con la aversión al riesgo para poder explicar la considerable reducción de los diferenciales a finales de 2006. La prueba es que las clasificaciones sí importan. Por último, el trabajo descubre que los indicadores mundiales de aversión al riesgo han perdido importancia para los diferenciales de mercados emergentes y que el efecto de los últimos acontecimientos en la situación de préstamos hipotecarios de alto riesgo en EE. UU. es de menor magnitud que el efecto de las “noticias promedio” sobre los diferenciales de canjes de incumplimiento crediticio de las economías emergentes.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrew Powell & Juan F. Martinez S., 2008. "Sobre los diferenciales y clasificaciones soberanos de economías emergentes," Research Department Publications 4566, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    • Handle: RePEc:idb:wpaper:4566
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