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Credit Supply in Venezuela: A Non-Conventional Bank Lending Channel?

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  • Chirinos-Leañez, Ana María
  • Pagliacci, Carolina

Abstract

This paper evaluates whether fiscal and foreign exchange policy shocks canexplain both credit and credit supply in Venezuela. Empirical evidence suggests that between 65 and 90 percent of credit growth is linked to the buildup of banks' deposits caused by the monetary effects of fiscal expansions. For these cases, since credit is provided at equal or reduced interest rates, credit supply takes place. Loan supply can occur either endogenously, when fiscal domestic spending increases with expansionary aggregate supply shocks, or exogenously, when fiscal policy shocks emerge. The role of exogenous fiscal shocks in accounting for credit supply is preponderant in the long run. This evidence suggests fiscal shocks represent a non-conventional bank lending channel. Because this exogenous fiscally-triggered credit supply does not significantly contribute to boosting real activity, its major cost might be associated with high credit volatility.

Suggested Citation

  • Chirinos-Leañez, Ana María & Pagliacci, Carolina, 2017. "Credit Supply in Venezuela: A Non-Conventional Bank Lending Channel?," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 8256, Inter-American Development Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:idb:brikps:8256
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Carolina Pagliacci, 2019. "Are we ignoring supply shocks? A proposal for monitoring cyclical fluctuations," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 56(2), pages 445-467, February.
    2. Bárcenas, Luis Arturo. & Chirinos, Ana María. & Pagliacci, Carolina., 2013. "Trasmisión de choques macroeconómicos en Venezuela. Un enfoque estructural del modelo factorial," El Trimestre Económico, Fondo de Cultura Económica, vol. 0(320), pages 903-942, octubre-d.
    3. Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 1995. "Inside the Black Box: The Credit Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 27-48, Fall.
    4. Busch, Ulrike & Scharnagl, Michael & Scheithauer, Jan, 2010. "Loan supply in Germany during the financial crisis," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2010,05, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    5. Carvallo, Oscar & Pagliacci, Carolina, 2016. "Macroeconomic shocks, bank stability and the housing market in Venezuela," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 174-196.
    6. Canova, Fabio & Nicolo, Gianni De, 2002. "Monetary disturbances matter for business fluctuations in the G-7," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(6), pages 1131-1159, September.
    7. Arias, Jonas E. & Caldara, Dario & Rubio-Ramírez, Juan F., 2019. "The systematic component of monetary policy in SVARs: An agnostic identification procedure," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 1-13.
    8. Eickmeier, Sandra & Gambacorta, Leonardo & Hofmann, Boris, 2014. "Understanding global liquidity," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 1-18.
    9. Bijsterbosch, Martin & Falagiarda, Matteo, 2014. "Credit supply dynamics and economic activity in euro area countries: a time-varying parameter VAR analysis," Working Paper Series 1714, European Central Bank.
    10. Alina Barnett & Ryland Thomas, 2014. "Has Weak Lending and Activity in the UK been Driven by Credit Supply Shocks?," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 82(S1), pages 60-89, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Guarata, Nora & Pagliacci, Carolina, 2017. "Understanding Financial Fluctuations and Their Relation to Macroeconomic Stability," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 8332, Inter-American Development Bank.
    2. Deimantė Teresienė & Greta Keliuotytė-Staniulėnienė & Rasa Kanapickienė, 2021. "Sustainable Economic Growth Support through Credit Transmission Channel and Financial Stability: In the Context of the COVID-19 Pandemic," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(5), pages 1-34, March.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bank loans; bank lending channel;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy

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