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Las consecuencias económicas de la violencia del narcotráfico en México

Author

Listed:
  • Robles, Gustavo
  • Calderon, Gabriela
  • Magaloni, Beatriz

Abstract

En este estudio se argumenta que en México existe un umbral de violencia relacionada con el narcotráfico a partir del cual se contrae la actividad económica en general. Por debajo de este umbral de violencia, los individuos y las empresas internalizan el aumento en costos de seguridad y protección, y dichas decisiones se reflejan en el mercado laboral. Una vez que el conflicto violento ha escalado sustancialmente, las decisiones económicas de mediano y largo plazo de los agentes económicos se ven afectadas de forma negativa, observándose una contracción importante de la actividad económica. En este estudio se propone el consumo de electricidad como un indicador de la actividad económica municipal y se utilizan dos estrategias empíricas diferentes. Para estimar los efectos marginales de la violencia se utiliza una regresión de variables instrumentales usando como variación exógena el instrumento de Mejía y Castillo (2012) con base en los decomisos históricos de cocaína proveniente de Colombia. Para estimar los efectos 'umbral' sobre la economía se emplea la metodología de controles sintéticos, la cual consiste en construir escenarios contrafactuales como un promedio ponderado óptimo de las unidades de control. Se encuentra que un aumento en los niveles de violencia tiene efectos negativos sustantivos sobre la participación laboral y el empleo. Asimismo, se observa que aquellos municipios que experimentaron incrementos drásticos de la violencia entre 2006 y 2010 redujeron de forma importante su consumo de energía durante los años posteriores al tratamiento.

Suggested Citation

  • Robles, Gustavo & Calderon, Gabriela & Magaloni, Beatriz, 2013. "Las consecuencias económicas de la violencia del narcotráfico en México," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 4679, Inter-American Development Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:idb:brikps:4679
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Alberto Abadie & Javier Gardeazabal, 2003. "The Economic Costs of Conflict: A Case Study of the Basque Country," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 113-132, March.
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    3. Vinícius Velasco Rondon & Mônica Viegas Andrade, 2003. "Custos da criminalidade em Belo Horizonte," Economia, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics], vol. 4(2), pages 223-259, July-Dece.
    4. Abadie, Alberto & Diamond, Alexis & Hainmueller, Jens, 2010. "Synthetic Control Methods for Comparative Case Studies: Estimating the Effect of California’s Tobacco Control Program," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 105(490), pages 493-505.
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    Cited by:

    1. Pablo Quezada & Miguel Santillan & Ricardo Hinojosa & Jorge Rada, 2019. "Percepción de inseguridad versus tasa delictiva; ¿qué afecta más la economía mexicana?. (Insecurity perception versus crime rate; ¿which has a bigger impact on Mexico’s economy?)," Ensayos Revista de Economia, Universidad Autonoma de Nuevo Leon, Facultad de Economia, vol. 0(2), pages 205-226, November.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
    • C90 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - General
    • K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty

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