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Empirical Evidence on the Effects of Marginal Tax Rates on Income – The German Case

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  • Peter Gottfried
  • Hannes Schellhorn

Abstract

In 1990 the German personal income tax schedule underwent a major change. We interpret this reform as a ‘natural experiment´ and use a panel of individual income tax returns to analyze the response of income to changes in the individual tax rates. Our results suggest an average elasticity of taxable income with respect to the net-of-tax rate of around 0.4. Due to the detailed information the panel provides, we are not only able to distinguish between different levels of income but also between different types of income. We found very low elasticity estimates in the case of regular employment income, but values of up to 1.0 for business income and for high-income households.

Suggested Citation

  • Peter Gottfried & Hannes Schellhorn, 2004. "Empirical Evidence on the Effects of Marginal Tax Rates on Income – The German Case," IAW Discussion Papers 15, Institut für Angewandte Wirtschaftsforschung (IAW).
    • Handle: RePEc:iaw:iawdip:15
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Gruber, Jon & Saez, Emmanuel, 2002. "The elasticity of taxable income: evidence and implications," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(1), pages 1-32, April.
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    6. Sillamaa, Mary-Anne & Veall, Michael R., 2001. "The effect of marginal tax rates on taxable income: a panel study of the 1988 tax flattening in Canada," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(3), pages 341-356, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Steiner, Viktor, 2010. "Konsolidierung der Staatsfinanzen," Discussion Papers 2010/9, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    2. Becker, Sascha O. & Ekholm, Karolina & Muendler, Marc-Andreas, 2013. "Offshoring and the onshore composition of tasks and skills," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 91-106.
    3. Spies, Julia, 2010. "Network and border effects: Where do foreign multinationals locate in Germany?," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 20-32, January.
    4. Carina Neisser, 2021. "The Elasticity of Taxable Income: A Meta-Regression Analysis [The top 1% in international and historical perspective]," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 131(640), pages 3365-3391.
    5. Claudia Buch & Paola Monti, 2010. "Openness and income disparities: does trade explain the “Mezzogiorno effect”?," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 145(4), pages 667-688, January.
    6. Bach, Stefan & Corneo, Giacomo & Steiner, Viktor, 2012. "Optimal top marginal tax rates under income splitting for couples," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(6), pages 1055-1069.
    7. Arrazola, María & de Hevia, José & Romero, Desiderio & Sanz-Sanz, José Félix, 2014. "Personal Income Tax Reforms and the Elasticity of Reported Income to Marginal Tax Rates: An Empirical Analysis Applied to Spain," Working Paper Series 3593, Victoria University of Wellington, Chair in Public Finance.
    8. Bernhard Boockmann & Stephan Thomsen & Thomas Walter, 2009. "Intensifying the Use of Benefit Sanctions – An Effective Tool to Shorten Welfare Receipt and Speed up Transitions to Employment?," IAW Discussion Papers 56, Institut für Angewandte Wirtschaftsforschung (IAW).
    9. Elena Biewen & Sandra Nolte & Martin Rosemann, 2008. "Multiplicative Measurement Error and the Simulation Extrapolation Method," IAW Discussion Papers 39, Institut für Angewandte Wirtschaftsforschung (IAW).
    10. Emmanuel Saez & Joel Slemrod & Seth H. Giertz, 2012. "The Elasticity of Taxable Income with Respect to Marginal Tax Rates: A Critical Review," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 50(1), pages 3-50, March.
    11. Jos順鬩x Sanz-Sanz & Mar𨁁rrazola-Vacas & Nuria Rueda-L󰥺 & Desiderio Romero-Jordᮠ, 2015. "Reported gross income and marginal tax rates: estimation of the behavioural reactions of Spanish taxpayers," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(5), pages 466-484, January.
    12. Bernhard Boockmann & Daniel Gutknecht & Susanne Steffes, 2008. "Effects of Dismissal Protection Legislation on Individual Employment Stability in Germany," IAW Discussion Papers 45, Institut für Angewandte Wirtschaftsforschung (IAW).
    13. Massarrat-Mashhadi, Nima & Werdt, Clive, 2012. "Estimating dynamic income responses to tax changes Massarrat-Mashhadi: Evidence from Germany," Discussion Papers 2012/22, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
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    15. Arrazola, María & de Hevia, José & Romero, Desiderio & Sanz-Sanz, José Félix, 2014. "Personal Income Tax Reforms and the Elasticity of Reported Income to Marginal Tax Rates: An Empirical Analysis Applied to Spain," Working Paper Series 18851, Victoria University of Wellington, Chair in Public Finance.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • H24 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Personal Income and Other Nonbusiness Taxes and Subsidies
    • H31 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - Household
    • J29 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Other

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