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IAB-Prognose 2020/2021: Arbeitsmarkt auf schwierigem Erholungskurs

Author

Listed:
  • Bauer, Anja

    (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany)

  • Fuchs, Johann

    (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany)

  • Gartner, Hermann

    (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany)

  • Hummel, Markus

    (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany)

  • Hutter, Christian

    (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany)

  • Wanger, Susanne

    (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany)

  • Weber, Enzo

    (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany ; Univ. Regensburg)

  • Zika, Gerd

    (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany)

Abstract

"Die Konjunktur befindet sich nach dem Einbruch in der Corona-Krise wieder auf Erholungskurs. Für das Jahr 2020 wird eine Schrumpfung des realen Bruttoinlandsprodukts von 5,2?Prozent erwartet. Im Jahr 2021 könnte die Wirtschaftsleistung wieder um 3,2?Prozent zulegen. Der Arbeitsmarkt geriet massiv unter Druck, die Verschlechterung blieb aber angesichts des immensen wirtschaftlichen Schocks noch vergleichsweise begrenzt. Die Zahl der Arbeitslosen steigt im Jahresdurchschnitt 2020 um 440.000, die Erwerbstätigkeit fällt um 400.000 Personen. Im Zuge der wirtschaftlichen Erholung verbessert sich auch die Arbeitsmarktentwicklung. Für das Jahr 2021 geht das Autorenteam von einem Anstieg der Erwerbstätigkeit um 130.000 und einem Rückgang der Arbeitslosigkeit um 100.000 Personen aus." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

Suggested Citation

  • Bauer, Anja & Fuchs, Johann & Gartner, Hermann & Hummel, Markus & Hutter, Christian & Wanger, Susanne & Weber, Enzo & Zika, Gerd, 2020. "IAB-Prognose 2020/2021: Arbeitsmarkt auf schwierigem Erholungskurs," IAB-Kurzbericht 202019, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    • Handle: RePEc:iab:iabkbe:202019
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Christian Merkl & Enzo Weber, 2020. "Raus aus der Neueinstellungskrise! [End the Recruitment Crisis!]," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 100(7), pages 507-509, July.
    2. Klinger, Sabine & Weber, Enzo, 2020. "GDP-employment decoupling in Germany," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 82-98.
    3. Christian Hutter & Enzo Weber, 2020. "Corona-Krise: die transformative Rezession [Corona Crisis: Transformative Recession]," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 100(6), pages 429-431, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Hummel, Markus & Bernardt, Florian & Kalinowski, Michael & Maier, Tobias & Mönnig, Anke & Schneemann, Christian & Steeg, Stefanie & Wolter, Marc Ingo & Zika, Gerd, 2021. "Qualifikations- und Berufsprojektion bis 2040 nach Bundesländern: Demografie und Strukturwandel prägen weiterhin die regionale Entwicklung der Arbeitsmärkte (Qualifications and occupations projection ," IAB-Kurzbericht 202101, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    2. Ulrich Walwei & Jürgen Deller, 2021. "Labour Market Participation of Older Workers: Drivers and Obstacles," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics;Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), vol. 56(6), pages 341-347, November.

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