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Electromobility 2035: Economic and labour market effects through the electrification of powertrains in passenger cars

Author

Listed:
  • Mönnig, Anke

    (GWS)

  • Schneemann, Christian

    (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany)

  • Weber, Enzo

    (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany ; Univ. Regensburg)

  • Zika, Gerd

    (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany)

  • Helmrich, Robert

    (BIBB)

Abstract

"This study focuses on the economic effects of the phenomenon of the electrification of powertrains in passenger cars (e-mobility). The automotive industry is one of the leading sectors in Germany and the country is one of the world's leading car producers. Therefore the economic impact could be extensive. Using the scenario technique, a number of assumptions have been made and integrated into the QINFORGE analytical tool. At the beginning of the scenario, the underlying assumptions have a positive effect on the economic development. However, in the long run they lead to a lower GDP and level of employment. The change in technology will lead to 114,000 job cuts by the end of 2035. The economy as a whole will lose nearly 20 billion euros (0.6 % of the GDP). In the scenario, we assumed a share of only 23 percent of electric cars as compared to all new registered cars in 2035. The electrification of powertrains will have negative effects especially on skilled workers. The demand for specialist and expert activities will also decrease with a time delay. A much higher market penetration could lead to stronger economic effects. Furthermore, a higher market share of domestically produced cars and traction batteries could generate more positive economic effects." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Suggested Citation

  • Mönnig, Anke & Schneemann, Christian & Weber, Enzo & Zika, Gerd & Helmrich, Robert, 2019. "Electromobility 2035: Economic and labour market effects through the electrification of powertrains in passenger cars," IAB-Discussion Paper 201908, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    • Handle: RePEc:iab:iabdpa:201908
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Wietschel, Martin & Thielmann, Axel & Plötz, Patrick & Gnann, Till & Sievers, Luisa & Breitschopf, Barbara & Doll, Claus & Moll, Cornelius, 2017. "Perspektiven des Wirtschaftsstandorts Deutschland in Zeiten zunehmender Elektromobilität," Working Papers "Sustainability and Innovation" S09/2017, Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research (ISI).
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    Cited by:

    1. Karol Tucki & Olga Orynycz & Agnieszka Dudziak, 2022. "The Impact of the Available Infrastructure on the Electric Vehicle Market in Poland and in EU Countries," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(24), pages 1-23, December.
    2. Cotterman, Turner & Fuchs, Erica R.H. & Whitefoot, Kate S. & Combemale, Christophe, 2024. "The transition to electrified vehicles: Evaluating the labor demand of manufacturing conventional versus battery electric vehicle powertrains," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 188(C).
    3. Blanka Tundys & Tomasz Wiśniewski, 2023. "Smart Mobility for Smart Cities—Electromobility Solution Analysis and Development Directions," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(4), pages 1-20, February.
    4. Szalavetz, Andrea, 2022. "Transition to electric vehicles in Hungary: A devastating crisis or business as usual?," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bundesrepublik Deutschland ; Elektromobilität ; Auswirkungen ; Automobilindustrie ; Beschäftigungseffekte ; Bruttoinlandsprodukt ; Elektronik ; Elektrotechnik ; Fachkräfte ; Infrastrukturkosten ; Kraftfahrzeug ; Produktinnovation ; Produktivitätseffekte ; Qualifikationsanforderungen ; BIBB/IAB-Qualifikations- und Berufsfeldprojektionen ; Szenario ; Arbeitsmarktprognose ; Wirtschaftswachstum ; Zulieferer ; 1994-2035;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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