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Short-Term Dependencies between the Volatility of Currency, Money and Capital Markets: The Case of Poland

Author

Listed:
  • Janusz Brzeszczynski
  • Robert Kelm

Abstract

The paper presents GARCH models for the Euro-Polish zloty and US dollar-Polish zloty currency rates. It applies the approach within which both the conditional variance function and the mean equation of the ARCH class model are expanded simultaneously. The basic regression equation incorporates causal dependencies between currency prices and the main characteristics of domestic and international currency, money and capital markets. The paper provides an insight into the currency market microstructure as the presented investigation takes into account the intradaily features of the market. Model selection and performance has been evaluated by the use of direction quality measures.

Suggested Citation

  • Janusz Brzeszczynski & Robert Kelm, 2004. "Short-Term Dependencies between the Volatility of Currency, Money and Capital Markets: The Case of Poland," CERT Discussion Papers 0409, Centre for Economic Reform and Transformation, Heriot Watt University.
    • Handle: RePEc:hwe:certdp:0409
    as

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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    4. Andersen, Torben G & Bollerslev, Tim, 1998. "Answering the Skeptics: Yes, Standard Volatility Models Do Provide Accurate Forecasts," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 885-905, November.
    5. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
    6. Lamoureux, Christopher G & Lastrapes, William D, 1990. "Heteroskedasticity in Stock Return Data: Volume versus GARCH Effects," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(1), pages 221-229, March.
    7. Richard K. Lyons, 1996. "Foreign Exchange Volume: Sound and Fury Signifying Nothing?," NBER Chapters, in: The Microstructure of Foreign Exchange Markets, pages 183-208, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Bollerslev, Tim & Chou, Ray Y. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1992. "ARCH modeling in finance : A review of the theory and empirical evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 5-59.
    9. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    currency market; GARCH models; direction quality measures; emerging markets;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation

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