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Air Pollution and COVID-19 Transmission in China

Author

Listed:
  • Guojun He

    (Division of Social Science, Division of Environment and Sustainability, and Department of Economics, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology)

  • Yuhang Pan

    (Division of Environment and Sustainability, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, Clear Water Bay,Hong Kong)

  • Takanao TANAKA

    (Division of Social Science, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, Clear Water Bay, Hong Kong)

Abstract

Accurately estimating the effect of air pollution on COVID-19 transmission requires researchers to account for the epidemiological characteristics, deal with endogeneity, and capture the dynamic impact of air pollution. To do so, we propose a new econometric framework by combining the Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered-Deceased model, the Instrument Variable model, and the Flexible-Distributed-Lag model. Using data covering all Chinese cities, we find that a 10-point increase in the Air Quality Index would lead to a 2.80 percentage point increase in the daily COVID-19 growth rate with 2 to 13 days of delay, implying that improving air quality can help slow the COVID-19 spread.

Suggested Citation

  • Guojun He & Yuhang Pan & Takanao TANAKA, 2020. "Air Pollution and COVID-19 Transmission in China," HKUST IEMS Working Paper Series 2021-80, HKUST Institute for Emerging Market Studies, revised Feb 2021.
    • Handle: RePEc:hku:wpaper:202180
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    File URL: https://iems.ust.hk/assets/publications/working-papers-2021/iemswp2021-80.pdf
    File Function: Revised version, 2021
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fan, Maoyong & He, Guojun & Zhou, Maigeng, 2020. "The winter choke: Coal-Fired heating, air pollution, and mortality in China," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    2. Douglas Almond & Xinming Du & Shuang Zhang, 2020. "Ambiguous Pollution Response to COVID-19 in China," NBER Working Papers 27086, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Elizabeth J. Williamson & Alex J. Walker & Krishnan Bhaskaran & Seb Bacon & Chris Bates & Caroline E. Morton & Helen J. Curtis & Amir Mehrkar & David Evans & Peter Inglesby & Jonathan Cockburn & Helen, 2020. "Factors associated with COVID-19-related death using OpenSAFELY," Nature, Nature, vol. 584(7821), pages 430-436, August.
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