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Ambiguous Pollution Response to COVID-19 in China

Author

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  • Douglas Almond
  • Xinming Du
  • Shuang Zhang

Abstract

Reductions in ambient pollution have been taken as an indisputable "silver lining" to the COVID-19 Pandemic. Indeed, worldwide economic contraction induced by COVID-19 lockdowns should generate global air quality improvements ceteris paribus, including to China's notoriously-poor air quality. We analyze China's official pollution monitor data and account for the large, recurrent improvement in air quality following Lunar New Year (LNY), which essentially coincided with lock-downs in 2020. With the important exception of NO2, China's air quality improvements in 2020 are smaller than we should expect near the pandemic's epicenter: Hubei province. Compared with LNY improvements experienced in 2018 and 2019 in Hubei, we see smaller improvements in SO2 while ozone concentrations increased in both relative and absolute terms (roughly doubling). Similar patterns are found for the six provinces neighboring Hubei. We conclude that COVID-19 had ambiguous impacts on China's pollution, with evidence of relative deterioration in air quality near the Pandemic's epicenter.

Suggested Citation

  • Douglas Almond & Xinming Du & Shuang Zhang, 2020. "Ambiguous Pollution Response to COVID-19 in China," NBER Working Papers 27086, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:27086
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Hung-Hao Chang & Chad Meyerhoefer & Feng-An Yang, 2020. "COVID-19 Prevention and Air Pollution in the Absence of a Lockdown," NBER Working Papers 27604, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Robert J. R. Elliott & Ingmar Schumacher & Cees Withagen, 2020. "Suggestions for a Covid-19 Post-Pandemic Research Agenda in Environmental Economics," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 76(4), pages 1187-1213, August.
    3. Souknilanh Keola & Kazunobu Hayakawa, 2021. "Do Lockdown Policies Reduce Economic and Social Activities? Evidence from NO2 Emissions," The Developing Economies, Institute of Developing Economies, vol. 59(2), pages 178-205, June.
    4. Fu Huang & Qiang Wu & Pei Wang, 2023. "Population Mobility and Urban Air Quality: Causal Inference and Impact Measurement," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(15), pages 1-19, July.
    5. Liu, Jielun & Ong, Ghim Ping & Pang, Vincent Junxiong, 2022. "Modelling effectiveness of COVID-19 pandemic control policies using an Area-based SEIR model with consideration of infection during interzonal travel," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 161(C), pages 25-47.
    6. Wang, Chunchao & Lin, Qianqian & Qiu, Yun, 2022. "Productivity loss amid invisible pollution," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    7. Wang, Chunchao & Lin, Qianqian & Qiu, Yun, 2020. "Productivity Loss amid Invisible Pollution," GLO Discussion Paper Series 722, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    8. Guojun He & Yuhang Pan & Takanao TANAKA, 2020. "Air Pollution and COVID-19 Transmission in China," HKUST IEMS Working Paper Series 2021-80, HKUST Institute for Emerging Market Studies, revised Feb 2021.
    9. Saleem, Farhan & Hina, Saadia & Ullah, Irfan & Habib, Ammara & Hina, Alina & Ilyas, Sana & Hamid, Muhammad, 2024. "Impacts of irregular and strategic lockdown on air quality over Indo-Pak Subcontinent: Pre-to-post COVID-19 analysis," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
    10. Hayakawa, Kazunobu & Keola, Souknilanh, 2021. "How is the Asian economy recovering from COVID-19? Evidence from the emissions of air pollutants," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • I1 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health
    • Q53 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Air Pollution; Water Pollution; Noise; Hazardous Waste; Solid Waste; Recycling
    • Q56 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environment and Development; Environment and Trade; Sustainability; Environmental Accounts and Accounting; Environmental Equity; Population Growth
    • Z18 - Other Special Topics - - Cultural Economics - - - Public Policy

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