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Macroeconomic Cycles in China

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  • Mr. S. E Oppers

Abstract

This paper investigates the macroeconomic cycles China has experienced since the onset of reform in the late 1970s. It finds that the recurrent inflationary episodes that characterize the cycles are associated primarily with surges in the main components of aggregate demand. The most recent cycle stands out in achieving for the first time a reduction in inflation without a major slowdown in growth. The soft landing was facilitated by a number of factors, including increases in capacity as a result of the surge in investment spending early on in the cycle.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. S. E Oppers, 1997. "Macroeconomic Cycles in China," IMF Working Papers 1997/135, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:1997/135
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Yin Zhang & Guanghua Wan, 2005. "China's Business Cycles: Perspectives from an AD–AS Model," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 19(4), pages 445-469, December.
    2. Paul G. Egan & Anthony J. Leddin, 2017. "The Chinese Phillips curve – inflation dynamics in the presence of structural change," Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(2), pages 165-184, April.
    3. repec:zbw:bofitp:2005_006 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Guy Longueville & Nhu-Nguyen Ngo, 2004. "Le système bancaire chinois : un risque systémique ?," Revue d'Économie Financière, Programme National Persée, vol. 77(4), pages 187-202.
    5. Jorg Scheibe, 2003. "The Chinese Output Gap During the Reform Period 1978-2002," Economics Series Working Papers 179, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    6. Simon, György, 2001. "Reform és növekedés Kínában [Reform and growth in China]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(7), pages 673-692.
    7. Zhang, Chengsi & Murasawa, Yasutomo, 2012. "Multivariate model-based gap measures and a new Phillips curve for China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 60-70.
    8. Vines, David & Scheibe, Jörg, 2005. "A Phillips Curve for China," CEPR Discussion Papers 4957, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Li, Cheng, 2010. "Government Size and Macroeconomic Stability: Sub-National Evidence from China," MPRA Paper 28226, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Michael Funke, 2005. "Inflation in Mainland China - Modelling a Roller Coaster Ride," Working Papers 152005, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    11. Jisheng Yang, 2010. "Expectation, excess liquidity and inflation dynamics in China," Frontiers of Economics in China, Springer;Higher Education Press, vol. 5(3), pages 412-429, September.
    12. R. Becker & Y. Wang, 2013. "Measuring the Chinese business cycle," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(28), pages 3988-4003, October.
    13. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Narayan, Seema & Smyth, Russell, 2009. "Understanding the inflation-output nexus for China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 82-90, March.
    14. Gerlach-Kristen, Petra, 2009. "Business cycle and inflation synchronisation in Mainland China and Hong Kong," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 404-418, June.
    15. Koyin Chang & Dennis Wilson & Yung-Hsiang Ying & Yoonbai Kim, 2010. "The decomposition of disturbances to national output of China-the evidence of sectoral and regional shocks," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(6), pages 747-757.
    16. GERLACH, Stefan & Peng, Wensheng, 2006. "Output gaps and inflation in Mainland China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 210-225.
    17. Maria Csanádi & Ferenc Gyuris, 2020. "Uneven Economic Overheating in a Transforming Party-State During the Global Crisis: The Case of China," CERS-IE WORKING PAPERS 2036, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies.
    18. Laurenceson, James & Rodgers, Danielle, 2010. "China's macroeconomic volatility -- How important is the business cycle?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 324-333, June.
    19. Min Gong & Wenpu Li, 2010. "Assessing the role of aggregate demand and supply shocks in China’s macroeconomic fluctuation," Frontiers of Economics in China, Springer;Higher Education Press, vol. 5(3), pages 464-488, September.

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