IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hkg/wpaper/0902.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Credibility of the Link from the Perspective of Modern Financial Theory

Author

Listed:
  • Hans Genberg

    (Research Department, Hong Kong Monetary Authority)

  • Cho-hoi Hui

    (Research Department, Hong Kong Monetary Authority)

Abstract

Hong Kong¡¯s Linked Exchange Rate system (LERS) has been in operation for 25 years during which time many other fixed exchange rate systems have succumbed to shocks and/or speculative attacks. This fact alone suggests that the LERS is a robust system which enjoys a large measure of credibility in financial markets. This paper intends to investigate whether this is indeed the case, and whether it has been the case throughout its 25-year history. In particular we will use the tools of modern finance to extract information from financial-asset prices about market expectations that are related to the credibility of the LERS. The main focus is on how market participants 'judged' the various changes made to the LERS, such as the 'seven technical measures' introduced in September 1998 and the 'three refinements' made in May 2005. These changes have been characterised as making the system less discretionary over time, and we hypothesise that they have also made it more credible as revealed in the prices of exchange rate-related asset prices. We also investigate the relationship between interest rates and exchange rates in the current system in light of modern models of target-zone exchange rate systems. We will examine whether the intra-marginal intervention in November 2007 changed the dynamic properties of the exchange rate as suggested by such models.

Suggested Citation

  • Hans Genberg & Cho-hoi Hui, 2009. "The Credibility of the Link from the Perspective of Modern Financial Theory," Working Papers 0902, Hong Kong Monetary Authority.
    • Handle: RePEc:hkg:wpaper:0902
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.info.gov.hk/hkma/eng/research/working/pdf/HKMAWP09_02_full.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Nicolau, João, 2002. "Stationary Processes That Look Like Random Walks— The Bounded Random Walk Process In Discrete And Continuous Time," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(1), pages 99-118, February.
    2. Anthony, Myrvin & MacDonald, Ronald, 1998. "On the mean-reverting properties of target zone exchange rates: Some evidence from the ERM," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(8), pages 1493-1523, September.
    3. He, Dong, 2008. "Macroeconomic Linkages between Hong Kong and Mainland China," MPRA Paper 9992, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Anthony, Myrvin & MacDonald, Ronald, 1999. "The width of the band and exchange rate mean-reversion: some further ERM-based results," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 411-428.
    5. Cho-Hoi Hui & Tom Fong, 2007. "Is the Hong Kong Dollar Exchange Rate "Bounded" in the Convertibility Zone?," Working Papers 0713, Hong Kong Monetary Authority.
    6. Cho-Hoi Hui & Chi-Fai Lo, 2008. "A Note on Estimating Realignment Probabilities -- A First-Passage-Time Approach," Working Papers 0809, Hong Kong Monetary Authority.
    7. Nieuwland, Frederick G M C & Verschoor, Willem F C & Wolff, Christian C P, 1994. "Stochastic trends and jumps in EMS exchange rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(6), pages 699-727, December.
    8. Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 2002. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 25-44, January.
    9. Laurence Fung & Ip-wing Yu, 2007. "Assessing the Credibility of The Convertibility Zone of The Hong Kong Dollar," Working Papers 0719, Hong Kong Monetary Authority.
    10. A. I. McLeod & W. K. Li, 1983. "Diagnostic Checking Arma Time Series Models Using Squared‐Residual Autocorrelations," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 4(4), pages 269-273, July.
    11. Campa, Jose Manuel & Chang, P H Kevin, 1996. "Arbitrage-Based Tests of Target-Zone Credibility: Evidence from ERM Cross-Rate Options," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(4), pages 726-740, September.
    12. Hans Genberg & Li-gang Liu & Xiangrong Jin, 2006. "Hong Kong's Economic Integration and Business Cycle Synchronisation with Mainland China and the US," Working Papers 0611, Hong Kong Monetary Authority.
    13. Paul R. Krugman, 1991. "Target Zones and Exchange Rate Dynamics," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 106(3), pages 669-682.
    14. Tony Latter, 2007. "Rules versus discretion in managing the Hong Kong dollar, 1983-2006," Working Papers 022007, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    15. Angelos Kanas, 1998. "Testing for a unit root in ERM exchange rates in the presence of structural breaks: evidence from the bootstrap," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(7), pages 407-410.
    16. Svensson, Lars E. O., 1993. "Assessing target zone credibility : Mean reversion and devaluation expectations in the ERM, 1979-1992," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 763-793, May.
    17. Cho-Hoi Hui & Chi-Fai Lo & Tsz-Kin Chung, 2008. "Market Expectation of Appreciation of the Renminbi," Working Papers 0803, Hong Kong Monetary Authority.
    18. Ball, Clifford A. & Roma, Antonio, 1994. "Target zone modelling and estimation for European Monetary System exchange rates," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 1(3-4), pages 385-420, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Roman Inderst & Manuel Klein, 2007. "Innovation, endogenous overinvestment, and incentive pay," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 38(4), pages 881-904, December.
    2. Inderst, Roman & Mueller, Holger M., 2009. "Early-stage financing and firm growth in new industries," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(2), pages 276-291, August.
    3. Michael Funke & Yu-Fu Chen & Nicole Glanemann, 2009. "A soft target zone model: Theory and application to Hong Kong," Quantitative Macroeconomics Working Papers 20912, Hamburg University, Department of Economics.
    4. Inderst, Roman, 2010. "Misselling (financial) products: The limits for internal compliance," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 106(1), pages 35-37, January.
    5. Yu-Fu Chen & Michael Funke & Nicole Glanemann, 2009. "A Soft Edge Target Zone Model: Theory And Application To Hong Kong," Dundee Discussion Papers in Economics 228, Economic Studies, University of Dundee.
    6. Roman Inderst & Holger M. Mueller, 2010. "CEO Replacement Under Private Information," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(8), pages 2935-2969, August.
    7. Roman Inderst & Holger M. Mueller & Felix Münnich, 2006. "Financing a Portfolio of Projects," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 20(4), pages 1289-1325.
    8. Inderst, Roman & Mueller, Holger M., 2008. "Bank capital structure and credit decisions," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 295-314, July.
    9. Roman Inderst, 2008. "'Irresponsible Lending' With A Better Informed Lender," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 118(532), pages 1499-1519, October.
    10. Ledenyov, Dimitri O. & Ledenyov, Viktor O., 2015. "Wave function method to forecast foreign currencies exchange rates at ultra high frequency electronic trading in foreign currencies exchange markets," MPRA Paper 67470, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Inderst, Roman, 2009. "Loan origination under soft- and hard-information lending," IMFS Working Paper Series 27, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
    12. Dong He & Zhiwei Zhang & Honglin Wang, 2009. "Hong Kong's Financial Market Interactions with the US and Mainland China in Crisis and Tranquil Times," Working Papers 0910, Hong Kong Monetary Authority.
    13. repec:zbw:bofitp:2009_021 is not listed on IDEAS

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ledenyov, Dimitri O. & Ledenyov, Viktor O., 2015. "Wave function method to forecast foreign currencies exchange rates at ultra high frequency electronic trading in foreign currencies exchange markets," MPRA Paper 67470, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Hui, C.H. & Lo, C.F., 2009. "A note on estimating realignment probabilities - A first-passage-time approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(5), pages 804-812, September.
    3. Cho-Hoi Hui & Chi-Fai Lo, 2008. "A Note on Estimating Realignment Probabilities -- A First-Passage-Time Approach," Working Papers 0809, Hong Kong Monetary Authority.
    4. C. H. Hui & C. F. Lo & V. Yeung & L. Fung, 2008. "Valuing foreign currency options with a mean-reverting process: a study of Hong Kong dollar," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(1), pages 118-134.
    5. Lo, C.F. & Hui, C.H. & Fong, T. & Chu, S.W., 2015. "A quasi-bounded target zone model — Theory and application to Hong Kong dollar," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 1-17.
    6. Hui, Cho-Hoi & Lo, Chi-Fai & Fong, Tom Pak-Wing, 2016. "Swiss franc's one-sided target zone during 2011–2015," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 54-67.
    7. Cho-Hoi Hui & Chi-Fai Lo & Po-Hon Chau, 2017. "Can Exchange Rate Dynamics in Krugman¡¯s Target-zone Model be Directly Tested?Abstract: Despite Krugman's (1991) model being a benchmark for modelling target zones, empirical support has been sparse d," Working Papers 032017, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    8. António Portugal Duarte & João Sousa Andrade & Adelaide Duarte, 2009. "Exchange Rate Mean Reversion within a Target Zone: Evidence from a Country on the Periphery of the ERM," GEMF Working Papers 2009-15, GEMF, Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra.
    9. Peter P. Carr & Zura Kakushadze, 2017. "FX options in target zones," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(10), pages 1477-1486, October.
    10. C. H. Hui & C. F. Lo & T. Fong, 2015. "A Quasi-Bounded Model for Swiss Franc's One-Sided Target Zone During 2011-2015," Working Papers 152015, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    11. Bekaert, Geert & Gray, Stephen F., 1998. "Target zones and exchange rates:: An empirical investigation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 1-35, June.
    12. Giuseppe Cavaliere, 2005. "Testing mean reversion in target-zone exchange rates," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(20), pages 2335-2347.
    13. Chen Yu-Fu & Funke Michael & Glanemann Nicole, 2013. "Off-the-record target zones: theory with an application to Hong Kong’s currency board," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 17(4), pages 373-393, September.
    14. Darvas, Zsolt, 1999. "Az árfolyamsávok empirikus modelljei és a devizaárfolyam sávon belüli előrejelezhetetlensége [Empirical models of exchange rate target zones]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(6), pages 507-529.
    15. Malz, Allan M., 1996. "Using option prices to estimate realignment probabilities in the European Monetary System: the case of sterling-mark," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(5), pages 717-748, October.
    16. repec:zbw:bofitp:2010_006 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Anthony, Myrvin & MacDonald, Ronald, 1998. "On the mean-reverting properties of target zone exchange rates: Some evidence from the ERM," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(8), pages 1493-1523, September.
    18. Marie Bessec, 2000. "Mean-Reversion versus PPP Adjustment: The Two Regimes of Exchange Rate Dynamics Under the EMS, 1979-1998," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1305, Econometric Society.
    19. Jaehun Chung & Yongmiao Hong, 2007. "Model-free evaluation of directional predictability in foreign exchange markets," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(5), pages 855-889.
    20. Hans Genberg & Cho-Hoi Hui, 2011. "The Credibility of Hong Kong's Link from the Perspective of Modern Financial Theory," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(1), pages 185-206, February.
    21. Hong Ben Yee & Nikolai Dokuchaev, 2015. "Construction Of Models For Bounded Price Processes: The Case Of The Hkd Exchange Rate," Annals of Financial Economics (AFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 10(02), pages 1-23, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Hong Kong dollar; Linked Exchange Rate system; target zone;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hkg:wpaper:0902. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Simon Chan (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/magovhk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.